Royal Caribbean Group reports results on Tuesday 27 October, before the market opens. As it grows, the business is getting more profitable; revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $18.7 billion, rising 8.7% on the year before.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $5.75 | $5.68 |
| Dec '25 | $2.80 | $2.80 |
| Mar '26 | $3.60 | $3.20 |
| Jun '26 | $4.21 | $3.98 |
What analysts expect
Analysts have been raising their forecasts going into the report. For the quarter, the average EPS estimate is $6.38, in a range from $6.26 to $6.84, while the average revenue estimate stands at $5.6 billion. Looking ahead, the analysts’ average estimate for full-year EPS is $17.83, which would be up 14.0% on last year (based on 27 analysts). That estimate has risen 2.9% over the past 90 days. Of the recommendations, 23 are positive, 6 neutral and 0 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set Full Year 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance at $17.73 to $17.87. In its latest earnings release, management also set Third Quarter 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance at $6.26 to $6.36.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 1.7%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $4.21 compared with an estimate of $3.98, exceeding it by 5.7%.
The trends going in
Sales are still rising, just more slowly than before; that growth rate was down 1.0 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin was 49.1%, while the trailing operating margin stood at 27.3%, up 0.9 percentage points from a year earlier. The trailing net margin was 23.5%. Net income over the twelve months was $4.4 billion, which rose 22.1% on the year before.
Cash flow
Investment is rising faster than operating cash flow, squeezing what is left for shareholders. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $6.8 billion, up 18.3% on the year before. Capital spending was $7.2 billion, or 38.6% of revenue. Meanwhile, free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was −$416.0 million. Free cash flow was −2.2% of revenue (the free-cash-flow margin), down 23.1 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 1.9% over the year.
Against its own history
Set against the company’s own record: today’s free-cash-flow margin of −2.2% is higher than 39% of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −5153.0% to 27.7%. Today’s operating margin of 27.3% is higher than 97% of past readings (−4118.1% to 27.9%). Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of 8.7% is higher than 56% of past readings (−98.8% to 4914.6%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the slowdown in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. Alongside that, whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
