Sherwin-Williams reports results on Tuesday 27 October, before the market opens. Growth is speeding up, with revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 at $24.4 billion, a rise of 5.8% on the year before.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $3.59 | $3.44 |
| Dec '25 | $2.23 | $2.16 |
| Mar '26 | $2.35 | $2.27 |
| Jun '26 | $3.70 | $3.52 |
What analysts expect
Analysts have been raising their forecasts going into the report. The average EPS estimate for the quarter stands at $3.69, in a range from $3.48 to $3.78, while the average revenue estimate is $6.8 billion. For full-year EPS, the analysts’ average estimate is $12.09, up 5.7% on last year (based on 24 analysts). That figure has risen 2.9% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts’ recommendations, 15 are positive, 14 neutral and 0 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set full year 2026 Adjusted diluted net income per share guidance at $11.80 to $12.20. In its latest earnings release, management also set full year 2026 Diluted net income per share guidance at $10.92 to $11.32.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 2.0%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $3.70 compared with an estimate of $3.52, exceeding it by 5.1%.
The trends going in
Profit and cash are telling different stories: cash flow grew far faster. The trailing gross margin was 49.0%, while the trailing net margin was 11.0%. Net income over the twelve months was $2.7 billion, which rose 5.6% on the year before.
Cash flow
Today’s cash margin sits near the top of the company’s own record. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $3.9 billion, up 27.0% on the year before. Capital spending was $673.5 million, or 2.8% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $3.2 billion, up 49.1% on the year before. This represented a free-cash-flow margin of 13.2%, up 3.8 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 1.8% over the year.
How today compares
In the context of past results, today’s free-cash-flow margin of 13.2% is higher than 94% of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from 4.3% to 17.4%. Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of 5.8% is higher than 48% of past readings (−8.3% to 37.2%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. At the same time, whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
What it means for our valuation
These trends feed directly into what the shares are worth in our model. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 29.7%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 38.8%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 8.0%.
