Smithfield Foods Inc reports results on Tuesday 27 October, before the market opens. Growth continues, but it is losing pace. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $15.5 billion, which rose 4.3% on the year before.
What analysts expect
Analysts have been cutting their forecasts going into the report. For the quarter, the analysts’ average EPS estimate is $0.26, in a range from $0.25 to $0.27. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $3.7 billion. At the same time, the analysts’ average estimate for full-year EPS is $2.13, which would be down 16.6% on last year (based on 7 analysts). That estimate has fallen 19.7% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts’ recommendations, 4 are positive, 3 neutral and 0 negative.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 6.2%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.62 compared with an estimate of $0.60, above it by 4.0%.
The trends going in
Growth is coming with wider margins, so profit is rising faster than sales. That growth rate was down 3.3 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin was 13.4%. The trailing operating margin was 8.6%, up 0.5 percentage points from a year earlier. The trailing net margin was 6.8%. Net income over the twelve months was $1.1 billion, which rose 16.8% on the year before.
The cash picture
The share count is rising, so each share claims a smaller slice of the profit. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $1.2 billion, up 11.8% on the year before. Capital spending was $348.0 million, or 2.2% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $807.0 million, up 15.5% on the year before. Free cash flow was 5.2% of revenue (the free-cash-flow margin), up 0.5 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count rose 2.3% over the year.
Questions this report will answer
Whether the slowdown in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. At the same time, Whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
The valuation angle
Our model translates these figures into value. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 27.0%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 35.3%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 20.0%.
