Adagene Inc. is a US-listed company in the biotechnology industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$1.8
Growth cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$1.5–$2.1. Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability.
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: valued with our growth model, which doesn't carry a Buy/Hold/Sell rating yet.
Adagene Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $8m, up 7332.8% on a year earlier, against a decline of 99.4% a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin rose to -204.3% from -451.3% a year earlier. Operating margin widened to -279.5% from -711.2%. The diluted share count is up 4.8% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders. It passes 4 of our 6 financial-health checks. Our growth cash-flow model value is $1.50 a share, against a share price of $2.51.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Adagene Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 7332.8% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of -204.3%. Where it stands out: change in growth rate of +7432.2pp ranks 1 of 172 biotechnology companies we cover.
Current signal Revenue growth accelerating: TTM revenue growth rose to 7332.8% (+7432.2pp vs the prior quarter).
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for ADAG from the sources we follow. See filings →
We value Adagene Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.6%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.81 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$1.8 ~$1.5–$2.1 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: no positive earnings in the latest twelve months |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: the model gives no positive value |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Forward price-to-sales vs peers Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$0.3 ~$0.3–$1.1 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.13x) |
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | — | Does not apply: revenue and margins don't support a positive value |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (growth cash-flow model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$1.8 ~$1.5–$2.1 | 1 model |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Adagene Inc. with Biotechnology in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| At fiscal year end | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share price | $8.07 | $1.32 | $1.93 | $1.99 | $1.89 |
| Market value | $323m | $57m | $85m | $90m | $89m |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | −$167m | −$116m | −$88m | −$67m | −$68m |
| Enterprise value | $156m | −$59m | −$3m | $23m | $21m |
| Multiples | |||||
| Price / sales | 31.7x | 6.2x | 4.7x | n/m | 11.6x |
| Price / earnings | — | — | — | — | — |
| Price / free cash flow | — | — | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | — | — | $2m | −75% |
| Next | — | — | $5m | +130% |
| Calendar year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | |||||
| ADAG | −84% | +46% | +3% | −5% | +21% |
| Industry peers (median) | −56% | −18% | −29% | −5% | −27% |
| S&P 500 | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | |||||
| ADAG | 25% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 46% |
| S&P 500 | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | |||||
| ADAG | −90% | −41% | −55% | −44% | −57% |
| S&P 500 | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since February 9, 2021: 97% from February 9, 2021 to October 31, 2022. Getting back needed a 3232% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY18 Q4 | $1.5M |
| FY19 Q4 | $480K |
| FY20 Q4 | $700.9K |
| FY21 Q4 | $10.2M |
| FY22 Q4 | $9.3M |
| FY23 Q4 | $18.1M |
| FY24 Q4 | $103.2K |
| FY25 Q4 | $7.7M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY19 Q4 | -68.2% |
| FY20 Q4 | 46.0% |
| FY21 Q4 | 1351.7% |
| FY22 Q4 | -8.7% |
| FY23 Q4 | 94.9% |
| FY24 Q4 | -99.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | 7332.8% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY18 Q4 | -1147.1% |
| FY19 Q4 | -3993.7% |
| FY20 Q4 | -6156.5% |
| FY21 Q4 | -711.2% |
| FY22 Q4 | -903.1% |
| FY23 Q4 | -131.0% |
| FY24 Q4 | -34835.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | -279.5% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY18 Q4 | -978.0% |
| FY19 Q4 | -3813.6% |
| FY20 Q4 | -4203.8% |
| FY21 Q4 | -451.3% |
| FY22 Q4 | -530.6% |
| FY23 Q4 | -157.6% |
| FY24 Q4 | -28811.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | -204.3% |
| Fiscal year | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 0 | 8 |
| EBITDA | −16 | −18 | −42 | −71 | −83 | −23 | −35 | −21 |
| Operating income | −17 | −19 | −43 | −72 | −84 | −24 | −36 | −21 |
| Net income | −15 | −16 | −42 | −73 | −80 | −19 | −33 | −18 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.39 | −$0.46 | −$1.11 | −$1.82 | −$1.85 | −$0.44 | −$0.74 | −$0.38 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | — | −68.2% | +46.0% | +>999% | −8.7% | +94.9% | −99.4% | +>999% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| EBITDA margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | −700.1% | −890.7% | −125.6% | <−999% | −273.8% |
| Operating margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | −711.2% | −903.1% | −131.0% | <−999% | −279.5% |
| Net margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | −719.2% | −860.6% | −104.6% | <−999% | −229.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −978.0% | <−999% | <−999% | −451.3% | −530.6% | −157.6% | <−999% | −204.3% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | −14 | −18 | −29 | −43 | −49 | −28 | −30 | −16 |
| Capital spending | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −15 | −18 | −29 | −46 | −49 | −29 | −30 | −16 |
| Stock-based pay | 0 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −15 | −19 | −40 | −65 | −60 | −36 | −35 | −19 |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||
| Cash | 16 | 93 | 75 | 174 | 144 | 110 | 85 | 75 |
| Total debt | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 28 | 22 | 18 | 6 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −16 | −90 | −67 | −167 | −116 | −88 | −67 | −68 |
| Diluted shares | 36m | 36m | 38m | 40m | 43m | 44m | 45m | 47m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||
| Buybacks | — | — | — | 2 | 4 | — | — | — |
| Total returned | — | — | — | 2 | 4 | — | — | — |
| Last 12 months unless stated | ADAG | ROIV | EVAX | COYA | ACRS | TCRX | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $8m | $8m | $8m | $8m | $8m | $7m | $56m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | >999% | −67.6% | 125.1% | >999% | −51.0% | 2.2% | 12.6% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | −46.4% | — | — | −35.9% | −24.3% | 13.7% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | −33.5% | — | 49.0% | −8.3% | −65.8% | 10.2% |
| Operating margin | −279.5% | <−999% | −122.7% | −288.7% | <−999% | <−999% | −189.4% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | −102.3% | — | <−999% | −711.4% | <−999% | −363.5% |
| Net margin | −229.6% | <−999% | −102.4% | −270.2% | −921.5% | <−999% | −169.8% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | −204.1% | <−999% | −88.0% | −196.1% | −755.1% | <−999% | −168.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −204.3% | <−999% | −88.2% | −196.3% | −756.5% | <−999% | −162.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | <−999% | — | <−999% | −339.9% | <−999% | −310.0% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 48.8% | >999% | 4.1% | 66.3% | 141.8% | 138.4% | 20.0% |
| Change in share count | 4.8% | 0.6% | 497.3% | 22.4% | 25.5% | 4.1% | 8.2% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 7332.8% | 12.6% | 4 of 172 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +7432.2pp | -0.1pp | 1 of 172 |
| Operating margin Profitability | -279.5% | -189.4% | 102 of 175 |
| Net margin Profitability | -229.6% | -157.3% | 98 of 180 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | -204.3% | -145.4% | 102 of 176 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 48.8% | 19.2% | 114 of 179 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 1.5% | 20.6% | 16 of 78 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 4.8% | 7.9% | 66 of 156 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jupiter Topco LLC | $28.1M | 6.7M | 34.7% | — |
| Deerfield Management Company, L.P. | $11.2M | 2.7M | 13.8% | New |
| Siren, L.L.C. | $11.2M | 2.7M | 13.8% | New |
| Ameriprise Financial Inc | $7.2M | 1.7M | 8.9% | ▲ 182.4% |
| Hsg Holding Ltd | $5.6M | 1.3M | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| Squadron Capital Management LLC | $5.3M | 1.3M | 6.5% | New |
| Dauntless Investment Group, LLC | $2.3M | 537K | 2.8% | ▲ 1444.9% |
| Citadel Advisors LLC | $2.1M | 507K | 2.6% | New |
| Exome Asset Management LLC | $2.1M | 488K | 2.5% | ▼ 33.7% |
| Birchview Capital, LP | $1M | 240K | 1.2% | New |
| Moneta Group Investment Advisors LLC | $840,000 | 200K | 1.0% | New |
| Pathstone Holdings, LLC | $838,362 | 200K | 1.0% | New |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Adagene Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tam Man Kin Chief Financial Officer | September 23, 2026 | Buy | 2,000 | $3.00 | $6,000 |
| Luo Peter Chief Executive Officer | September 16, 2026 | Buy | 20,290 | $3.15 | $63,914 |
| Do Cuong V Director | August 14, 2026 | Buy | 2,000 | $3.75 | $7,500 |
| Luo Peter Chief Executive Officer | August 5, 2026 | Buy | 279 | $3.65 | $1,018 |
| Luo Peter Chief Executive Officer | August 4, 2026 | Buy | 22,966 | $3.65 | $83,826 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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