Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. is a US-listed company in the restaurants industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$20
Valuation models combined (4)
Base case. Range ~$15–$27. Weighted average of 4 models (growth cash-flow model, forward price-to-earnings vs peers, residual income, justified price-to-book), the growth cash-flow model counting double.
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: valued with our growth model, which doesn't carry a Buy/Hold/Sell rating yet.
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $4.68bn, up 4.7% on a year earlier, faster than the 3.2% growth a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin fell to 0.3% from 5.4% a year earlier. Operating margin widened to 7.8% from 5.2%. It passes 4 of our 7 financial-health checks. Our valuation models combined value is $20.46 a share, against a share price of $6.73.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 4.7% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 0.3%. Where it stands out: gross margin of 98.1% ranks 1 of 15 restaurants companies we cover.
Current signal Results well ahead of expectations: Reported earnings per share beat the analysts' consensus estimate by 45% in the quarter to 2026-06-30, the 3rd beat in the last four quarters.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
Nothing in Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s latest figures clears our strength thresholds.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for ARCO from the sources we follow. See filings →
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $17.2M, FY2025 Q4 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
We value Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.7%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.83 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$18 ~$12–$23 | Primary model, counts double |
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$15 ~$13–$28 | Included |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$27 ~$19–$38 | Included |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$21 ~$18–$26 | Included |
| Forward price-to-sales vs peers Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | — | Does not apply: earnings are positive: price-to-earnings is the better measure |
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | — | Does not apply: revenue and margins don't support a positive value |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (growth cash-flow model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$20 ~$15–$27 | 4 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. with Restaurants in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| At fiscal year end | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share price | $2.62 | $4.55 | $8.72 | $6.74 | $7.02 | $4.43 | $5.14 | $7.52 | $11.65 | $6.87 | $7.15 |
| Market value | $552m | $960m | $1.8bn | $1.4bn | $1.5bn | $925m | $1.1bn | $1.6bn | $2.5bn | $1.4bn | $1.5bn |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | $562m | $396m | $332m | $439m | $518m | $620m | $473m | $475m | $548m | $644m | $775m |
| Enterprise value | $1.1bn | $1.4bn | $2.2bn | $1.9bn | $2.0bn | $1.5bn | $1.6bn | $2.1bn | $3.0bn | $2.1bn | $2.3bn |
| Multiples | |||||||||||
| Price / sales | 0.2x | 0.3x | 0.6x | 0.5x | 0.5x | 0.5x | 0.4x | 0.4x | 0.6x | 0.3x | 0.3x |
| Price / earnings | — | 12.2x | 14.3x | 38.5x | 18.2x | — | 23.8x | 11.3x | 13.5x | 9.7x | 7.1x |
| Price / free cash flow | 25.4x | 13.3x | 23.0x | — | — | — | 7.6x | 12.3x | 112.2x | — | 100.5x |
| EV / EBITDA | 5.5x | 5.0x | 5.9x | 8.1x | 7.0x | 25.7x | 6.0x | 5.4x | 6.5x | 4.2x | 4.1x |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Low.
Next results: November 12, 2026, before the open. Analysts expect revenue of $1.3bn and EPS of $0.16 (range $0.16 to $0.16) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $0.80 | −22% | $5.3bn | +13% |
| Next | $0.88 | +10% | $5.6bn | +7% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +3.2% in 90 days, across 6 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +3.4% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 1 analyst raised Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s forecast and 0 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $0.77 | $0.85 |
| 60 days ago | $0.80 | $0.86 |
| 30 days ago | $0.80 | $0.86 |
| 7 days ago | $0.80 | $0.88 |
| Now | $0.80 | $0.88 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.15 | $0.22 | +45.4% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.10 | $0.17 | +66.1% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.20 | $0.13 | −35.7% |
| Sept 2025 | $0.13 | $0.71 | +448.3% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| ARCO | +16% | +46% | +55% | −41% | +4% | −5% |
| Industry peers (median) | +15% | −17% | +15% | +0% | −10% | +6% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| ARCO | 50% | 75% | 58% | 17% | 50% | 46% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| ARCO | −34% | −24% | −21% | −44% | −22% | −28% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 2, 2015: 71% from October 23, 2017 to April 1, 2020. Getting back needed a 240% gain, reached on June 23, 2023, 1178 days after the low.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY14 Q4 | $3.7B |
| FY15 Q4 | $3.1B |
| FY16 Q4 | $2.9B |
| FY17 Q4 | $3.3B |
| FY18 Q4 | $3.1B |
| FY19 Q4 | $3B |
| FY20 Q4 | $2B |
| FY21 Q4 | $2.7B |
| FY22 Q4 | $3.6B |
| FY23 Q4 | $4.3B |
| FY24 Q4 | $4.5B |
| FY25 Q4 | $4.7B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY14 Q4 | -9.5% |
| FY15 Q4 | -16.4% |
| FY16 Q4 | -4.1% |
| FY17 Q4 | 13.3% |
| FY18 Q4 | -7.2% |
| FY19 Q4 | -4.0% |
| FY20 Q4 | -32.9% |
| FY21 Q4 | 34.1% |
| FY22 Q4 | 36.1% |
| FY23 Q4 | 19.7% |
| FY24 Q4 | 3.2% |
| FY25 Q4 | 4.7% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY14 Q4 | 1.9% |
| FY15 Q4 | 3.1% |
| FY16 Q4 | 6.1% |
| FY17 Q4 | 8.2% |
| FY18 Q4 | 4.0% |
| FY19 Q4 | 5.4% |
| FY20 Q4 | -3.4% |
| FY21 Q4 | 5.2% |
| FY22 Q4 | 7.3% |
| FY23 Q4 | 7.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | 7.3% |
| FY25 Q4 | 7.8% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY14 Q4 | 0.6% |
| FY15 Q4 | 0.7% |
| FY16 Q4 | 2.5% |
| FY17 Q4 | 2.4% |
| FY18 Q4 | -0.6% |
| FY19 Q4 | -1.4% |
| FY20 Q4 | -3.5% |
| FY21 Q4 | 5.4% |
| FY22 Q4 | 3.5% |
| FY23 Q4 | 0.5% |
| FY24 Q4 | -1.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | 0.3% |
Each dollar Arcos Dorados took in during FY2025, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on running the business, and what was left after tax.
| Revenue | $4.7B | |
|---|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | $89.5M | 1.9% of revenue |
| Gross profit | $4.6B | 98.1% of revenue |
| Selling, general and admin | $313M | 6.7% of revenue |
| Other operating costs | $3.9B | 83.6% of revenue |
| Operating income | $364M | 7.8% of revenue |
| Income tax | $129M | 2.8% of revenue |
| Interest and other | $23.5M | 0.5% of revenue |
| Net income | $212M | 4.5% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2009 Dec 2009 | 2010 Dec 2010 | 2011 Dec 2011 | 2012 Dec 2012 | 2013 Dec 2013 | 2014 Dec 2014 | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 2,665 | 3,018 | 3,658 | 3,797 | 4,033 | 3,651 | 3,053 | 2,929 | 3,320 | 3,082 | 2,959 | 1,984 | 2,660 | 3,619 | 4,332 | 4,470 | 4,678 |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3,014 | 2,898 | 1,941 | 2,609 | 3,551 | 4,249 | 4,386 | 4,589 |
| EBITDA | 261 | 265 | 320 | 329 | 343 | 188 | 204 | 272 | 372 | 229 | 283 | 60 | 260 | 384 | 463 | 502 | 562 |
| Operating income | 207 | 205 | 251 | 237 | 229 | 71 | 93 | 179 | 273 | 123 | 160 | −67 | 140 | 264 | 314 | 325 | 364 |
| Net income | 80 | 106 | 116 | 114 | 54 | −109 | −52 | 79 | 129 | 37 | 80 | −149 | 45 | 140 | 181 | 149 | 212 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.33 | $0.44 | $0.54 | $0.55 | $0.26 | −$0.52 | −$0.25 | $0.37 | $0.61 | $0.18 | $0.38 | −$0.72 | $0.22 | $0.67 | $0.86 | $0.71 | $1.01 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | — | +13.2% | +21.2% | +3.8% | +6.2% | −9.5% | −16.4% | −4.1% | +13.3% | −7.2% | −4.0% | −32.9% | +34.1% | +36.1% | +19.7% | +3.2% | +4.7% |
| EBITDA | — | +1.6% | +20.6% | +2.9% | +4.4% | −45.3% | +8.8% | +33.0% | +37.1% | −38.4% | +23.5% | −78.8% | +332.5% | +47.8% | +20.6% | +8.3% | +11.9% |
| Operating income | — | −1.1% | +22.6% | −5.6% | −3.4% | −69.0% | — | +91.2% | +52.8% | −54.8% | +29.5% | −141.7% | — | +89.5% | +18.8% | +3.3% | +12.3% |
| Net income | — | +32.5% | +9.0% | −1.0% | −52.9% | — | — | — | +63.9% | −71.5% | — | −287.1% | — | — | +29.2% | −17.9% | +42.6% |
| Diluted EPS | — | +33.3% | +22.7% | +1.9% | −52.7% | — | — | — | +64.9% | −70.5% | — | −289.5% | — | — | +28.4% | −17.4% | +42.3% |
| Margins | |||||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 97.8% | 97.9% | 97.8% | 98.1% | 98.1% | 98.1% | 98.1% | 98.1% |
| EBITDA margin | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 12.0% |
| Operating margin | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | −3.4% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% |
| Net margin | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | −3.0% | −1.7% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 2.7% | −7.5% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 2.2% | 2.9% | −1.6% | −1.7% | −2.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | −0.6% | −1.4% | −3.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 0.5% | −1.4% | 0.3% |
| Cash flow | |||||||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 148 | 264 | 262 | 230 | 217 | 193 | 113 | 164 | 255 | 180 | 223 | 16 | 258 | 345 | 382 | 267 | 296 |
| Capital spending | 90 | 176 | 320 | 294 | 313 | 170 | 91 | 92 | 175 | 197 | 265 | 86 | 115 | 217 | 360 | 328 | 281 |
| Free cash flow | 58 | 88 | −58 | −64 | −96 | 23 | 22 | 72 | 80 | −17 | −42 | −70 | 143 | 128 | 22 | −61 | 15 |
| Stock-based pay | — | 20 | 19 | −16 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | — | 68 | −78 | −49 | −102 | 17 | 19 | 69 | 77 | −21 | −44 | −72 | 143 | 128 | 22 | — | — |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||||||||
| Cash | 168 | 208 | 176 | 185 | 176 | 139 | 113 | 195 | 308 | 197 | 122 | 166 | 279 | 267 | 197 | 135 | 373 |
| Total debt | 0 | 469 | 530 | 652 | 783 | 820 | 675 | 591 | 641 | 636 | 640 | 786 | 751 | 742 | 744 | 779 | 1,149 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −168 | 261 | 353 | 467 | 608 | 681 | 562 | 396 | 332 | 439 | 518 | 620 | 473 | 475 | 548 | 644 | 775 |
| Diluted shares | — | 242m | 216m | 210m | 210m | 210m | 211m | 211m | 212m | 210m | 208m | 209m | 211m | 211m | 211m | 211m | 211m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||||||||||||||
| Dividends | — | 33 | 57 | 50 | 38 | 50 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 32 | 40 | 51 | 51 |
| Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 46 | 14 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| Total returned | — | 33 | 57 | 50 | 38 | 50 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 36 | 10 | 0 | 32 | 40 | 51 | 51 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | ARCO | DPZ | CAKE | BLMN | EAT | TXRH | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.7bn | $5.1bn | $4.0bn | $4.0bn | $5.9bn | $6.2bn | $1.4bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 4.7% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 1.2% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 4.6% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 0.7% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 5.1% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | 3.4% | 13.9% | 1.3% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 4.5% |
| Gross margin | 98.1% | 40.0% | 75.9% | 70.1% | 73.1% | — | 68.6% |
| Operating margin | 7.8% | 19.7% | 6.0% | 1.2% | 11.0% | 7.7% | 4.9% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | 7.1% | 19.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% |
| Net margin | 4.5% | 12.0% | 5.2% | 0.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 2.5% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 6.3% | 15.0% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 11.9% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 0.3% | 12.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 3.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 2.7% | 12.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 2.8% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Change in share count | 0.0% | −2.6% | 0.6% | 1.4% | −4.3% | −0.9% | 0.2% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 4.7% | 4.7% | 22 of 44 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +1.5pp | +0.3pp | 11 of 44 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 98.1% | 63.0% | 1 of 15 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 7.8% | 5.2% | 17 of 42 |
| Net margin Profitability | 4.5% | 2.6% | 20 of 44 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | 0.3% | 3.6% | 32 of 44 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 29.0% | 29.0% | 19 of 36 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 0.0% | 0.3% | 20 of 42 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazard Asset Management LLC | $199M | 24.7M | 25.8% | ▲ 6.5% |
| Pzena Investment Management LLC | $87.1M | 10.8M | 11.3% | ▲ 0.6% |
| Spx Gestao De Recursos Ltda | $36.3M | 4.5M | 4.7% | ▼ 24.3% |
| Moerus Capital Management LLC | $34.5M | 4.3M | 4.5% | ▲ 0.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $32.3M | 4.0M | 4.2% | ▼ 4.3% |
| Private Management Group Inc | $26.7M | 3.3M | 3.5% | ▼ 1.1% |
| Mirae Asset Global Etfs Holdings Ltd. | $24.3M | 3.0M | 3.2% | ▲ 7.1% |
| American Century Companies Inc | $21.6M | 2.7M | 2.8% | New |
| Invesco Ltd. | $16.6M | 2.1M | 2.2% | ▲ 0.3% |
| Causeway Capital Management LLC | $15.8M | 2.0M | 2.1% | New |
| Sei Investments Co | $14.9M | 1.8M | 1.9% | ▼ 47.0% |
| Managed Asset Portfolios, LLC | $12.5M | 1.6M | 1.6% | ▲ 0.6% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hernandez Artigas Carlos Director | August 25, 2026 | Sell | 14,500 | $8.06 | $116,870 |
| Hernandez Artigas Carlos Director | August 24, 2026 | Sell | 15,274 | $8.15 | $124,483 |
| Hernandez Artigas Carlos Director | August 24, 2026 | Sell | 2,569 | $8.16 | $20,963 |
| Hernandez Artigas Carlos Director | May 28, 2026 | Sell | 20,000 | $9.01 | $180,200 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
No trades in Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. disclosed in the last 12 months; 1 earlier trade on record.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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