Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. valuation and forecast

Explore the models for Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc., adjust their assumptions and compare your own valuation with the platform's.

Your valuation workspace

What is ARCO worth to you?

Start with the company's financial data. Make the assumptions your own.

8 models available

All model types

01 / Assumptions

Follow the forecast

The cash flows behind your value

USD per share

View annual figures

Forecast year	Cash flow / share

Negative cash flows are shown in terracotta. Before the terminal value and equity bridge. Residual-income models show excess earnings; dividend models show dividends.

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Your weighted value—

Weights start with the platform's included models. Change them to build your own combination. Select a model name to edit its assumptions.

Model	Your value / share	Weight

The platform's price and consistency filters are not reapplied to your scenarios.

Other model types 14 unavailable for ARCO

Forward price-to-sales vs peers

earnings are positive: price-to-earnings is the better measure

Revenue-to-maturity model

revenue and margins don't support a positive value

P/B vs return on equity

This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.

Peer price-to-book

This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.

Peer P/E

This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.

Peer price-to-FFO

This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.

Peer price-to-sales

This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.

Two-stage dividend discount

This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.

Growing-dividend model

This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.

REIT funds from operations

This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.

Utility earnings

This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.

Book value / net assets

This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.

Reported crypto treasury NAV

This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.

Proved-reserve NAV

This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.

Model values are estimates under the assumptions shown. They are not share-price forecasts or investment advice.

Valuation models compared

Growth cash-flow modelRevenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged.

~$18~$12–$23

Forward price-to-earnings vs peersNext year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings.

~$15~$13–$28

Residual incomeBook value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years.

~$27~$19–$38

Justified price-to-bookBook value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns.

~$21~$18–$26

Models combinedweighted average of 4 models; primary model counts double

~$20~$15–$27

Different models answer different questions: the cash-flow models ask what the business generates for owners; the peer multiples ask what similar companies in our coverage trade on. Where they disagree, the gap is the story. Projections are estimates based on current data, updated daily. Not investment advice. How each model works.

Analyst recommendations

9 analysts, Oct 2026

Buy778%

Hold222%

Sell00%

Monthly trend

Oct 20264329
Sep 20264419
Aug 20264419
Jul 2026459

Counts of recommendations published by analysts covering Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc., by month. Source: Aggregated broker recommendations (third-party data). Aggregated counts only: we do not reproduce any firm's recommendation or price target, and these are not Fundamentalytics ratings.

Price history

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Third-party market data · may be delayed

How our value has changed

Our value per share (re-run on each quarter's filings) Share price, month end

View the data

Period	Our value per share
FY2019 Q4 (backtest)	$1.28
FY2021 Q4 (backtest)	$3.68
FY2022 Q4 (backtest)	$17.16
FY2023 Q4 (backtest)	$26.08
FY2024 Q4 (backtest)	$6.02

Our model re-run on each past quarter's filed figures: how the method would have valued Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. at the time (a backtest — our dated public record starts at launch). The grey line is the share price at month end, for comparison.

The assumptions

Free cash flow (TTM, FY2025 Q4): $15M
Less stock-based pay: $29,159
Cash flow we value: $17.2M
Growth, years 1–5 (base): %
Then fading to: 2.5%
Discount rate: 8.5%
Net cash added: -$728M
Diluted shares: 211M

What would move the value

Growth 5 points lower: —
Growth 5 points higher: —
Free-cash-flow margin 1 point lower: —
Discount rate 1 point higher: —

Change in our model value when one input moves, all else equal.

ARCO valuation questions

How does Fundamentalytics value Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.?: We use the models that fit Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s business and available financial data: growth cash-flow model, forward price-to-earnings vs peers, residual income, justified price-to-book. Each model has its own assumptions and data requirements. The calculator explains which models are available and lets you adjust their inputs.

Data: SEC EDGAR filings, retrieved Invalid Date. Method: how we value companies. Disclosures: research and recommendations disclosure. Back to Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.

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