Autohome Inc.: what the price is pricing in

The price implies cash-flow growth of -30.0% a year; our model expects 2.0%. That gap is wide enough for a long position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.

No published rating for Autohome Inc.: held for review: our cash-flow value ($54.43) is 2.69x the share price ($20.20) and 2.54x the median of our other models ($21.45); the other models don't support a gap this wide. The readings below run our models backwards for research and show how trading the gap would have done; they are not a valuation or a rating. The valuation page shows the models and their status.

What growth in cash flow is the price paying for?

The price implies cash-flow growth of -30.0% a year; our model expects 2.0%.

Market more pessimistic than our model: long this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position2323 long, 0 short, since March 31, 2017

Beat the S&P 50011 of 2347.8% of quarters held

Strategy against the index−64.4%cumulative; worst fall -84.7%

$10,000 became$17,171S&P 500 bought and held: $37,596

Over time

The growth in owner earnings (free cash flow after stock-based pay) that would justify the share price in our discounted-cash-flow model, against the growth the model itself assumes from the company's record.

Growth our model assumes Growth the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

StrategyS&P 500, buy and hold Hypothetical, before costs. The strategy holds the S&P 500 and only changes on a signal: it switches into ATHM in long quarters and adds a short of ATHM in short quarters. The gap between the lines is what the signal added or lost.

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 23 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 11, by −1.8% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	23	47.8%	−1.8%	−1.2%	−16.4%	-0.39	No reliable evidence
Shorts	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
All positions	23	47.8%	−1.8%	−1.2%	−16.4%	-0.39	No reliable evidence

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (30)

From	Price paid	Growth the price implies	Growth our model assumes	Position	ATHM	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$21.25	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	−4.8%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$19.03	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	+15.7%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$17.37	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	+9.6%	+15.1%
September 30, 2025	$28.55	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	−22.0%	+2.7%
June 30, 2025	$25.79	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	+10.7%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$27.72	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	−7.0%	+10.8%
September 30, 2024	$32.62	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	−16.8%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$27.45	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	+21.3%	+5.8%
March 31, 2024	$26.22	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	+4.7%	+4.4%
September 30, 2023	$30.35	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	−3.6%	+11.6%
June 30, 2023	$29.16	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	+4.1%	−3.2%
March 31, 2023	$33.47	-29.8%	2.0%	Long	−12.9%	+8.7%
September 30, 2022	$28.76	-30.0%*	4.0%	Long	+6.4%	+7.6%
June 30, 2022	$39.33	-21.2%	4.0%	Long	−26.9%	−4.9%
March 31, 2022	$30.41	-30.0%*	4.0%	Long	+29.3%	−16.1%
September 30, 2021	$46.93	-10.3%	6.9%	Long	−37.2%	+11.1%
June 30, 2021	$63.96	-2.3%	6.9%	No position	−26.6%	+0.6%
March 31, 2021	$93.27	6.4%	6.9%	No position	−31.4%	+8.4%
September 30, 2020	$96.00	7.8%	11.0%	No position	+3.8%	+12.1%
June 30, 2020	$75.50	2.7%	11.0%	No position	+27.1%	+9.0%
March 31, 2020	$71.02	1.3%	11.0%	No position	+7.5%	+20.2%
September 30, 2019	$83.13	8.4%	20.0%	Long	−3.8%	+9.0%
June 30, 2019	$85.62	9.0%	20.0%	Long	−2.9%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$105.12	13.2%	20.0%	No position	−18.6%	+4.2%
September 30, 2018	$77.41	-23.7%	13.0%	Long	+1.1%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$101.00	-14.8%	13.0%	Long	−23.4%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$85.94	-19.9%	13.0%	Long	+17.5%	+3.5%
September 30, 2017	$60.08	-25.3%	13.0%	Long	+7.6%	+6.8%
June 30, 2017	$45.36	-30.0%*	13.0%	Long	+32.5%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$31.77	-30.0%*	13.0%	Long	+42.8%	+3.1%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split. * At the edge of the range we solve for.

What growth in earnings is the price paying for?

The price implies earnings growth of -30.0% a year; our model expects 2.0%.

Market more pessimistic than our model: long this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position2727 long, 0 short, since March 31, 2017

Beat the S&P 50012 of 2744.4% of quarters held

Strategy against the index−79.3%cumulative; worst fall -91.1%

$10,000 became$10,209S&P 500 bought and held: $37,596

Over time

The earnings growth the price-to-earnings ratio requires, against the growth our model assumes. Net income is already after interest, so it is valued at the return shareholders require, plus spare cash (none for banks and insurers, whose cash is funded by deposits and policies), with no debt subtracted.

Growth our model assumes Growth the P/E implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 27 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 12, by −3.2% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	27	44.4%	−3.2%	−4.7%	−20.8%	-0.75	No reliable evidence
Shorts	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
All positions	27	44.4%	−3.2%	−4.7%	−20.8%	-0.75	No reliable evidence

Every quarter (30)

From	Price paid	Growth the P/E implies	Growth our model assumes	Position	ATHM	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$21.25	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	−4.8%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$19.03	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	+15.7%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$17.37	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	+9.6%	+15.1%
September 30, 2025	$28.55	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	−22.0%	+2.7%
June 30, 2025	$25.79	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	+10.7%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$27.72	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	−7.0%	+10.8%
September 30, 2024	$32.62	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	−16.8%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$27.45	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	+21.3%	+5.8%
March 31, 2024	$26.22	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	+4.7%	+4.4%
September 30, 2023	$30.35	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	−3.6%	+11.6%
June 30, 2023	$29.16	-30.0%*	2.0%	Long	+4.1%	−3.2%
March 31, 2023	$33.47	-24.5%	2.0%	Long	−12.9%	+8.7%
September 30, 2022	$28.76	-30.0%*	4.0%	Long	+6.4%	+7.6%
June 30, 2022	$39.33	-19.3%	4.0%	Long	−26.9%	−4.9%
March 31, 2022	$30.41	-30.0%*	4.0%	Long	+29.3%	−16.1%
September 30, 2021	$46.93	-12.4%	6.9%	Long	−37.2%	+11.1%
June 30, 2021	$63.96	-4.4%	6.9%	Long	−26.6%	+0.6%
March 31, 2021	$93.27	4.2%	6.9%	No position	−31.4%	+8.4%
September 30, 2020	$96.00	5.9%	11.0%	No position	+3.8%	+12.1%
June 30, 2020	$75.50	0.8%	11.0%	Long	+27.1%	+9.0%
March 31, 2020	$71.02	-0.5%	11.0%	Long	+7.5%	+20.2%
September 30, 2019	$83.13	4.7%	20.0%	Long	−3.8%	+9.0%
June 30, 2019	$85.62	5.3%	20.0%	Long	−2.9%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$105.12	9.5%	20.0%	Long	−18.6%	+4.2%
September 30, 2018	$77.41	-24.8%	13.0%	Long	+1.1%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$101.00	-15.9%	13.0%	Long	−23.4%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$85.94	-21.0%	13.0%	Long	+17.5%	+3.5%
September 30, 2017	$60.08	-18.6%	13.0%	Long	+7.6%	+6.8%
June 30, 2017	$45.36	-29.6%	13.0%	Long	+32.5%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$31.77	-30.0%*	13.0%	Long	+42.8%	+3.1%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split. * At the edge of the range we solve for.

What profit margin is the price paying for?

No current reading. The latest is from September 30, 2025: the figures this lens needs have not been filed recently enough (or no longer apply), so there is no position this quarter.

Quarters with a position2424 long, 0 short, since March 31, 2017

Beat the S&P 5009 of 2437.5% of quarters held

Strategy against the index−82.8%cumulative; worst fall -91.6%

$10,000 became$6,434S&P 500 bought and held: $28,266

Over time

The owner-earnings margin (free cash flow after stock pay, as a share of revenue) the price requires at our model's growth, against the margin the company has delivered over three years.

Margin delivered Margin the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 24 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 9, by −4.4% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	24	37.5%	−4.4%	−10.5%	−25.4%	-0.93	No reliable evidence
Shorts	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
All positions	24	37.5%	−4.4%	−10.5%	−25.4%	-0.93	No reliable evidence

Every quarter (25)

From	Price paid	Margin the price implies	Margin delivered	Position	ATHM	S&P 500
September 30, 2025	$28.55	1.7%	26.1%	Long	−22.0%	+2.7%
March 31, 2025	$27.72	1.1%	26.1%	Long	−7.0%	+10.8%
September 30, 2024	$32.62	4.1%	35.5%	Long	−16.8%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$27.45	0.3%	35.5%	Long	+21.3%	+5.8%
September 30, 2023	$30.35	3.4%	36.1%	Long	−3.6%	+11.6%
June 30, 2023	$29.16	2.6%	36.1%	Long	+4.1%	−3.2%
March 31, 2023	$33.47	5.7%	36.1%	Long	−12.9%	+8.7%
September 30, 2022	$28.76	1.6%	34.8%	Long	+6.4%	+7.6%
June 30, 2022	$39.33	8.0%	34.8%	Long	−26.9%	−4.9%
March 31, 2022	$30.41	2.6%	34.8%	Long	+29.3%	−16.1%
September 30, 2021	$46.93	12.3%	33.5%	Long	−37.2%	+11.1%
June 30, 2021	$63.96	19.7%	33.5%	Long	−26.6%	+0.6%
March 31, 2021	$93.27	32.5%	33.5%	No position	−31.4%	+8.4%
September 30, 2020	$96.00	28.6%	34.2%	Long	+3.8%	+12.1%
June 30, 2020	$75.50	21.3%	34.2%	Long	+27.1%	+9.0%
March 31, 2020	$71.02	19.7%	34.2%	Long	+7.5%	+20.2%
September 30, 2019	$83.13	17.0%	32.3%	Long	−3.8%	+9.0%
June 30, 2019	$85.62	17.6%	32.3%	Long	−2.9%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$105.12	22.3%	32.3%	Long	−18.6%	+4.2%
September 30, 2018	$77.41	3.6%	30.3%	Long	+1.1%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$101.00	6.1%	30.3%	Long	−23.4%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$85.94	4.5%	30.3%	Long	+17.5%	+3.5%
September 30, 2017	$60.08	3.3%	30.4%	Long	+7.6%	+6.8%
June 30, 2017	$45.36	1.8%	30.4%	Long	+32.5%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$31.77	0.4%	30.4%	Long	+42.8%	+3.1%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

What return on equity is the price paying for?

The price implies a return on equity of 7.1%; the company earned 6.1%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What the company delivered

Quarters with a position116 long, 5 short, since March 31, 2017

Beat the S&P 50010 of 1190.9% of quarters held

Strategy against the index+256.7%cumulative; worst fall -31.0%

$10,000 became$131,503S&P 500 bought and held: $37,596

Over time

The return on equity that justifies the price-to-book ratio, (P/B)(r − g) + g with an 8.5% required return and 2.5% long-run growth, against the return the company delivered last year.

Return on equity delivered Return on equity the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 11 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 10, by +14.0% a quarter on average. That stands out clearly from chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	6	83.3%	+11.0%	+14.3%	+38.3%	1.10	Too few quarters
Shorts	5	100.0%	+17.7%	+12.7%	+87.5%	2.80	Too few quarters
All positions	11	90.9%	+14.0%	+14.0%	+58.8%	2.35	Strong evidence

Every quarter (30)

From	Price paid	Return on equity the price implies	Return on equity delivered	Position	ATHM	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$21.25	7.1%	6.1%	No position	−4.8%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$19.03	6.6%	6.1%	No position	+15.7%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$17.37	6.2%	6.1%	No position	+9.6%	+15.1%
September 30, 2025	$28.55	8.8%	7.0%	No position	−22.0%	+2.7%
June 30, 2025	$25.79	8.2%	7.0%	No position	+10.7%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$27.72	8.7%	7.0%	No position	−7.0%	+10.8%
September 30, 2024	$32.62	9.6%	8.0%	No position	−16.8%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$27.45	8.5%	8.0%	No position	+21.3%	+5.8%
March 31, 2024	$26.22	8.2%	8.0%	No position	+4.7%	+4.4%
September 30, 2023	$30.35	9.1%	7.9%	No position	−3.6%	+11.6%
June 30, 2023	$29.16	8.8%	7.9%	No position	+4.1%	−3.2%
March 31, 2023	$33.47	9.7%	7.9%	No position	−12.9%	+8.7%
September 30, 2022	$28.76	8.6%	11.2%	No position	+6.4%	+7.6%
June 30, 2022	$39.33	10.8%	11.2%	No position	−26.9%	−4.9%
March 31, 2022	$30.41	8.9%	11.2%	No position	+29.3%	−16.1%
September 30, 2021	$46.93	15.0%	19.8%	No position	−37.2%	+11.1%
June 30, 2021	$63.96	19.5%	19.8%	No position	−26.6%	+0.6%
March 31, 2021	$93.27	27.3%	19.8%	Short	−31.4%	+8.4%
September 30, 2020	$96.00	35.3%	24.9%	Short	+3.8%	+12.1%
June 30, 2020	$75.50	28.3%	24.9%	No position	+27.1%	+9.0%
March 31, 2020	$71.02	26.7%	24.9%	No position	+7.5%	+20.2%
September 30, 2019	$83.13	39.2%	30.6%	Short	−3.8%	+9.0%
June 30, 2019	$85.62	40.3%	30.6%	Short	−2.9%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$105.12	48.9%	30.6%	Short	−18.6%	+4.2%
September 30, 2018	$77.41	13.7%	27.7%	Long	+1.1%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$101.00	17.1%	27.7%	Long	−23.4%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$85.94	14.9%	27.7%	Long	+17.5%	+3.5%
September 30, 2017	$60.08	13.9%	22.2%	Long	+7.6%	+6.8%
June 30, 2017	$45.36	11.1%	22.2%	Long	+32.5%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$31.77	8.5%	22.2%	Long	+42.8%	+3.1%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from Autohome Inc.'s quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

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More: Interactive Media & Services stocks compared, Communication Services sector, rankings of US companies

Figures from Autohome Inc.'s SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved November 2, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to Autohome Inc.