Bitdeer Technologies Group is a US-listed company in the application software industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$21
Valuation models combined (2)
Base case. Range ~$2.0–$26. Weighted average of 2 models (growth cash-flow model, forward price-to-sales vs peers), the growth cash-flow model counting double.
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: valued with our growth model, which doesn't carry a Buy/Hold/Sell rating yet.
Bitdeer Technologies Group valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $620m, up 77.3% on a year earlier, against a decline of 5.1% a quarter earlier. That growth ranks 11 of 183 among the application software companies we cover. The diluted share count is up 70.5% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders. Our valuation models combined value is $21.27 a share, against a share price of $6.71.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Where it stands out: change in growth rate of +82.4pp ranks 7 of 184 application software companies we cover. Where it lags: change in share count of 70.5% ranks 152 of 163 application software companies we cover.
Current signal Revenue growth accelerating: TTM revenue growth rose to 77.3% (+82.4pp vs the prior quarter).
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for BTDR from the sources we follow. See filings →
We value Bitdeer Technologies Group as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 9.9%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.1 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$26 ~$15–$37 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$0.6 ~$4.6–$11 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.10x) |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: the model gives no positive value |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Forward price-to-sales vs peers Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$2.0 ~$13–$38 | Included, half weight |
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | — | Does not apply: revenue and margins don't support a positive value |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (growth cash-flow model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$21 ~$2.0–$26 | 2 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Bitdeer Technologies Group with Application Software in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: High.
Next results: November 10, 2026, before the open. Analysts expect revenue of $258m and EPS of −$0.33 (range −$0.39 to −$0.23) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | −$1.61 | −64% | $951m | +53% |
| Next | −$0.37 | +77% | $1.6bn | +71% |
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +8.4% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 1 analyst raised Bitdeer Technologies Group's forecast and 3 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | −$1.48 | −$0.20 |
| 60 days ago | −$1.55 | −$0.35 |
| 30 days ago | −$1.58 | −$0.34 |
| 7 days ago | −$1.58 | −$0.37 |
| Now | −$1.61 | −$0.37 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | −$0.34 | −$0.39 | −15.5% |
| Mar 2026 | −$0.34 | −$0.46 | −32.4% |
| Dec 2025 | −$0.12 | −$0.31 | −167.9% |
| Sept 2025 | −$0.14 | −$0.16 | −16.6% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY20 Q4 | $186.4M |
| FY21 Q4 | $394.7M |
| FY22 Q4 | $333.3M |
| FY23 Q4 | $368.6M |
| FY24 Q4 | $349.8M |
| FY25 Q4 | $620.3M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY21 Q4 | 111.7% |
| FY22 Q4 | -15.5% |
| FY23 Q4 | 10.6% |
| FY24 Q4 | -5.1% |
| FY25 Q4 | 77.3% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY20 Q4 | -34.0% |
| FY21 Q4 | 33.1% |
| FY22 Q4 | -18.2% |
| FY23 Q4 | -14.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | -168.6% |
| FY25 Q4 | 25.8% |
| Fiscal year | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||
| Revenue | 186 | 395 | 333 | 369 | 350 | 620 |
| Gross profit | −23 | 241 | 83 | 78 | 66 | 61 |
| EBITDA | −63 | 131 | −60 | −51 | −581 | — |
| Operating income | −63 | 131 | −61 | −52 | −590 | 160 |
| Net income | −56 | 83 | −60 | −57 | −599 | 66 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.00 | $0.75 | −$0.56 | −$0.51 | −$4.36 | −$1.43 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||
| Revenue | — | +111.7% | −15.5% | +10.6% | −5.1% | +77.3% |
| EBITDA | — | — | −146.2% | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | −146.3% | — | — | — |
| Net income | — | — | −173.0% | — | — | — |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | −174.7% | — | — | — |
| Margins | ||||||
| Gross margin | −12.4% | 61.2% | 25.0% | 21.1% | 19.0% | 9.8% |
| EBITDA margin | −34.0% | 33.2% | −18.1% | −14.0% | −166.2% | — |
| Operating margin | −34.0% | 33.1% | −18.2% | −14.2% | −168.6% | 25.8% |
| Net margin | −30.0% | 20.9% | −18.1% | −15.4% | −171.3% | 10.6% |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| Capital spending | 20 | 63 | 63 | 63 | 119 | 232 |
| Stock-based pay | — | 88 | 91 | 45 | 34 | 38 |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash | 45 | 372 | 231 | 145 | 476 | 149 |
| Total debt | 0 | 29 | 30 | 23 | 208 | 479 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −45 | −343 | −202 | −122 | −268 | 330 |
| Diluted shares | 12,662m | 111m | 109m | 110m | 137m | 234m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||
| Buybacks | — | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | — |
| Total returned | — | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | — |
| Last 12 months unless stated | BTDR | NCNO | YB | APPS | INTA | FROG | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $620m | $622m | $609m | $600m | $600m | $600m | $482m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 77.3% | 8.6% | 33.3% | 19.2% | 14.4% | 26.4% | 12.0% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 11.8% | — | −1.3% | 17.2% | 24.3% | 11.1% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | 8.2% | — | 26.8% | 16.0% | 28.7% | 11.9% |
| Gross margin | 9.8% | 62.2% | 96.2% | 57.3% | 76.6% | 77.9% | 69.2% |
| Operating margin | 25.8% | 7.9% | — | 10.3% | −4.5% | −11.5% | 1.1% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | −0.2% | — | −24.3% | −5.6% | −17.1% | −0.8% |
| Net margin | 10.6% | 5.4% | 29.9% | −5.8% | −4.7% | −7.3% | 2.1% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | — | 21.5% | 34.2% | 8.5% | 26.9% | 29.4% | 18.2% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | — | 21.2% | 33.8% | 0.9% | 26.6% | 28.3% | 15.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 15.3% | — | −3.8% | 21.8% | 26.9% | 16.2% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 6.2% | 11.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 21.0% | 26.8% | 9.3% |
| Change in share count | 70.5% | −4.9% | 5.4% | 11.1% | −2.5% | 5.9% | 2.2% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 77.3% | 12.0% | 11 of 184 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +82.4pp | +0.2pp | 7 of 184 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 25.8% | 1.1% | 20 of 181 |
| Net margin Profitability | 10.6% | 2.1% | 61 of 185 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 6.2% | 9.3% | 54 of 177 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 0.0% | 16.9% | 8 of 98 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 70.5% | 1.7% | 152 of 163 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock, Inc. | $176M | 11.1M | 7.1% | ▲ 23.2% |
| Sachem Head Capital Management LP | $153M | 9.6M | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| Jane Street Group, LLC | $112M | 7.1M | 4.5% | ▲ 4372.8% |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $111M | 7.0M | 4.5% | New |
| Barclays PLC | $105M | 6.6M | 4.2% | ▲ 50.3% |
| Citadel Advisors LLC | $96.1M | 6.1M | 3.9% | ▲ 201.2% |
| Bank Of America Corp | $88.4M | 5.6M | 3.6% | ▲ 72.7% |
| Value Aligned Research Advisors, LLC | $82.6M | 5.2M | 3.3% | ▲ 28.6% |
| Clearfield Capital Management LP | $64.9M | 4.1M | 2.6% | ▲ 236.3% |
| Duquesne Family Office LLC | $64.7M | 4.1M | 2.6% | New |
| UBS Group AG | $59.5M | 3.8M | 2.4% | ▼ 18.2% |
| State Street Corp | $57.8M | 3.6M | 2.3% | ▲ 1.8% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Bitdeer Technologies Group's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basit Haris Fozan Chief Strategy Officer | August 14, 2026 | Buy | 25,000 | $8.84 | $221,000 |
| Potter Michael G Chief Financial Officer | August 12, 2026 | Buy | 25,000 | $9.04 | $226,000 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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