10-Q filed October 29: Carrier Global
Model value +2.2%
Carrier Global's revenue reached $22.8bn in the twelve months to September 2026, up 3.3% on a year earlier, a reversal from the 1.6% decline recorded a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin improved to 10.4%, from 5.1% a year before. Operating margin, however, narrowed sharply to -4.8% from 12.9%. Share buybacks have trimmed the diluted count by 4.5% over the year, boosting per-share metrics. These shifts lift the fundamentals grade from D to C+. Our model value edges up from $21.77 to $22.25 a share, still far below the $54.59 share price. The rating remains Sell. At that price, the market appears to be pricing in cash-flow growth of about 16.2% a year for five years, well ahead of the 2.0% annual revenue growth Carrier has actually delivered.
Source: 10-Q filed October 29, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation