Canadian Natural Resources Ltd is a US-listed company in the oil & gas exploration & production industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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Under review: valuation models disagree too widely to rate.
Under review: valuation models disagree too widely to rate. We'll show the comparison once resolved.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $27.8bn, up 6.6% on a year earlier, against a decline of 2.3% a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin fell to 14.8% from 29.1% a year earlier. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades B. It passes 3 of our 6 financial-health checks.
Our model value for Canadian Natural Resources is under review, so past values are not shown until it is resolved.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 6.6% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 14.8%. Where it stands out: stock pay as % of revenue of 0.5% ranks 4 of 47 oil & gas exploration & production companies we cover.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$30 per share in the base case (~$21–$42 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow fell 16.3% while net income grew 73.7%: a 90pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for CNQ from the sources we follow. See filings →
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd's free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $4.9B, FY2025 Q4 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
The inputs used by the models below have passed source checks. Individual model values are available below and in the interactive valuator. Their differences are shown explicitly; the platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld.
We value Canadian Natural Resources Ltd as an oil and gas producer, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 7.7%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.62 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Proved-reserve net asset value The SEC standardised measure of the company's proved oil and gas reserves (future net cash flows after tax at SEC average prices, discounted at 10%) less debt and other claims, per share. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow to the firm (after stock pay, with after-tax interest added back), grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5% as the firm rate, less debt and other claims. | ~$30 ~$21–$42 | Included |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$41 ~$33–$64 | Included |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$61 ~$44–$86 | Included |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$65 ~$53–$82 | Included |
| Combined value Individual source-checked model scenarios are available. The platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld. | — | Combined value withheld. Review the individual models and their assumptions. |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Canadian Natural Resources Ltd with oil and gas producers in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Low.
Next results: November 5, 2026, before the open.
No analyst estimates are published for Canadian Natural Resources Ltd: too few analysts cover it.
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $2.04 | $2.19 | +7.2% |
| Mar 2026 | $1.06 | $1.17 | +10.9% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.70 | $0.82 | +16.9% |
| Sept 2025 | $0.81 | $0.86 | +6.3% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY15 Q4 | $9.7B |
| FY16 Q4 | $8.6B |
| FY17 Q4 | $13.4B |
| FY18 Q4 | $16.2B |
| FY19 Q4 | $17.2B |
| FY20 Q4 | $12.6B |
| FY21 Q4 | $24B |
| FY22 Q4 | $32.5B |
| FY23 Q4 | $26.7B |
| FY24 Q4 | $26B |
| FY25 Q4 | $27.8B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | -10.8% |
| FY17 Q4 | 54.8% |
| FY18 Q4 | 21.4% |
| FY19 Q4 | 6.2% |
| FY20 Q4 | -26.9% |
| FY21 Q4 | 90.4% |
| FY22 Q4 | 35.6% |
| FY23 Q4 | -18.1% |
| FY24 Q4 | -2.3% |
| FY25 Q4 | 6.6% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY15 Q4 | 4.2% |
| FY16 Q4 | -6.1% |
| FY17 Q4 | 15.5% |
| FY18 Q4 | 28.3% |
| FY19 Q4 | 14.4% |
| FY20 Q4 | -7.9% |
| FY21 Q4 | 29.1% |
| FY22 Q4 | 28.5% |
| FY23 Q4 | 16.5% |
| FY24 Q4 | 18.8% |
| FY25 Q4 | 14.8% |
| Fiscal year | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 9.7 | 8.6 | 13.4 | 16.2 | 17.2 | 12.6 | 24.0 | 32.5 | 26.7 | 26.0 | 27.8 |
| Net income | −0.5 | −0.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 4.1 | −0.3 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 7.7 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.23 | −$0.07 | $0.78 | $0.82 | $1.71 | −$0.14 | $2.58 | $3.66 | $2.77 | $2.08 | $3.69 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | — | −10.8% | +54.8% | +21.4% | +6.2% | −26.9% | +90.4% | +35.6% | −18.1% | −2.3% | +6.6% |
| Net income | — | — | — | +8.3% | +104.0% | −107.9% | — | +37.5% | −27.5% | −26.9% | +73.7% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | +4.6% | +109.0% | −108.1% | — | +42.0% | −24.3% | −24.9% | +77.5% |
| Margins | |||||||||||
| Net margin | −5.2% | −1.8% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 23.7% | −2.6% | 25.5% | 25.9% | 22.9% | 17.1% | 27.9% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 4.2% | −6.1% | 15.5% | 28.3% | 38.6% | 27.9% | 48.2% | 45.8% | 34.3% | 37.5% | 39.0% |
| Cash flow | |||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 4.4 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 11.6 | 14.9 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 10.8 |
| Capital spending | 4.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Free cash flow | 0.4 | −0.5 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 11.6 | 14.9 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 10.8 |
| Stock-based pay | −0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | −0.1 | 0.2 | −0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 0.4 | −0.8 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 11.1 | 14.3 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 10.7 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||
| Cash | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| Total debt | 0.0 | 12.5 | 17.9 | 15.1 | 16.2 | 16.8 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 13.1 | 12.1 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −0.0 | 12.5 | 17.8 | 15.0 | 16.1 | 16.7 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 13.0 | 11.6 |
| Diluted shares | 2,188m | 2,201m | 2,366m | 2,448m | 2,386m | 2,364m | 2,373m | 2,298m | 2,204m | 2,140m | 2,098m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||||||||
| Dividends | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Buybacks | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Total returned | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 4.5 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | CNQ | EOG | CVE | SU | DVN | FANG | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $27.8bn | $27.0bn | $35.6bn | $37.5bn | $19.7bn | $17.1bn | $1.4bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 6.6% | 19.1% | −10.2% | −6.4% | 14.6% | 21.4% | 10.6% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 1.4% | — | — | 5.0% | 27.2% | 1.4% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | 57.4% | — | — | 73.1% | 51.2% | 31.5% |
| Operating margin | — | 32.9% | — | — | 22.5% | 6.3% | 21.1% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | 34.4% | — | — | −48.4% | 31.1% | 16.5% |
| Net margin | 27.9% | 25.4% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 16.7% | 8.6% | 10.1% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 39.0% | 49.4% | 16.6% | — | 43.5% | 59.3% | 42.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 14.8% | 26.6% | −4.0% | — | 23.9% | 42.8% | 19.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 19.8% | 24.5% | — | — | 20.7% | 19.1% | 19.1% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 0.5% | 0.9% | — | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| Change in share count | −2.0% | −3.5% | −2.3% | −4.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 6.6% | 10.6% | 32 of 57 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +8.9pp | +4.9pp | 19 of 57 |
| Net margin Profitability | 27.9% | 10.1% | 10 of 57 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | 14.8% | 23.2% | 35 of 51 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 0.5% | 1.2% | 4 of 47 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 17.6% | 17.6% | 22 of 43 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -2.0% | 0.4% | 14 of 48 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital World Investors | $8.6B | 218.0M | 14.4% | ▲ 10.3% |
| Royal Bank Of Canada | $5.4B | 137.6M | 9.1% | ▲ 10.3% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $4.6B | 116.1M | 7.7% | ▼ 29.4% |
| Bank Of Montreal | $2.6B | 64.8M | 4.3% | ▲ 1.4% |
| FMR LLC | $2.5B | 64.2M | 4.3% | ▼ 24.6% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $2.3B | 58.8M | 3.9% | ▲ 1.3% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | $2B | 50.8M | 3.4% | ▲ 94.2% |
| Canada Pension Plan Investment Board | $1.5B | 38.6M | 2.6% | ▼ 4.1% |
| Mackenzie Financial Corp | $1.5B | 27.2M | 2.6% | ▼ 0.9% |
| TD Asset Management Inc | $1.2B | 31.2M | 2.1% | ▼ 22.0% |
| Healthcare Of Ontario Pension Plan Trust Fund | $1.2B | 30.8M | 2.0% | ▼ 17.8% |
| CIBC World Market Inc. | $1.2B | 30.4M | 2.0% | ▼ 32.3% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Canadian Natural Resources Ltd's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 1 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
No trades in Canadian Natural Resources Ltd disclosed in the last 12 months; 11 earlier trades on record.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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