Circle Internet Group, Inc.: what the price is pricing in

The price implies earnings growth of 21.4% a year; our model expects 20.0%. The gap is too narrow for a position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.

No published rating for Circle Internet Group, Inc.: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating. The readings below run our models backwards for research and show how trading the gap would have done; they are not a valuation or a rating. The valuation page shows the models and their status.

What growth in earnings is the price paying for?

The price implies earnings growth of 21.4% a year; our model expects 20.0%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position00 long, 0 short, since September 30, 2026

Beat the S&P 500—no position yet

Strategy against the index0.0%cumulative; worst fall 0.0%

Over time

The earnings growth the price-to-earnings ratio requires, against the growth our model assumes. Net income is already after interest, so it is valued at the return shareholders require, plus spare cash (none for banks and insurers, whose cash is funded by deposits and policies), with no debt subtracted.

Growth our model assumes Growth the P/E implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

Skill or luck?

In plain English: The gap has not been wide enough for a position in Circle Internet Group, Inc. since 2010, so there is no record to judge.

Positions	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	—	—	—	—	—	—
Shorts	—	—	—	—	—	—
All positions	—	—	—	—	—	—

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (1)

From	Price paid	Growth the P/E implies	Growth our model assumes	Position	CRCL	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$82.17	21.4%	20.0%	No position	−12.3%	−0.8%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

What return on equity is the price paying for?

The price implies a return on equity of 40.3%; the company earned 15.3%.

Market more optimistic than our model: short this quarter

What the price implies What the company delivered

Quarters with a position10 long, 1 short, since June 30, 2026

Beat the S&P 5000 of 10.0% of quarters held

Strategy against the index−28.8%cumulative; worst fall -28.8%

Over time

The return on equity that justifies the price-to-book ratio, (P/B)(r − g) + g with an 8.5% required return and 2.5% long-run growth, against the return the company delivered last year.

Return on equity delivered Return on equity the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

Skill or luck?

In plain English: With only 1 quarters of positions, Circle Internet Group, Inc.'s own record is too short to tell skill from luck. The results across all companies on the priced-in page are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
Shorts	1	0.0%	−28.8%	−28.8%	−74.3%	—	Too few quarters
All positions	1	0.0%	−28.8%	−28.8%	−74.3%	—	Too few quarters

Every quarter (2)

From	Price paid	Return on equity the price implies	Return on equity delivered	Position	CRCL	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$82.17	40.3%	15.3%	Short	−12.3%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$62.63	31.7%	-3.8%	Short	+31.2%	+2.4%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from Circle Internet Group, Inc.'s quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

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Figures from Circle Internet Group, Inc.'s SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved October 20, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to Circle Internet Group, Inc.