Ecarx Holdings Inc. is a US-listed company in the IT consulting & other services industry. Its financial year ends in December.
Loading chart…
Third-party market data · may be delayed
~$0.2
Revenue-to-maturity cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$0.2–$0.6 across our lower- and higher-growth cases (4.9%–14.9% a year).
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: only 1 valuation models apply; a rating needs 3.
Ecarx Holdings Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $848m. Free-cash-flow margin held at -12.6%. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades C. It passes 1 of our 5 financial-health checks. Our revenue-to-maturity cash-flow model value is $0.18 a share, against a share price of $0.90.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Ecarx Holdings Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 9.9% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of -12.6%. Where it lags: free-cash-flow margin of -12.6% ranks 31 of 38 it consulting & other services companies we cover.
Current signal Net income rising while operating cash flow falls: TTM net income grew 49.1% while operating cash flow fell 57.4% — earnings and cash are telling different stories.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
Loading chart…
Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for ECX from the sources we follow. See filings →
We value Ecarx Holdings Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 10.2%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.18 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | ~$0.2 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.18x) |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: no positive earnings in the latest twelve months |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: book value or earnings not available |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Price-to-sales vs peers Sales per share times peers' typical price-to-sales; used only when earnings are negative. | ~$0.8 ~$1.1–$5.0 | Included, half weight |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (revenue-to-maturity model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$0.8 ~$0.8–$5.0 | 1 model |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Ecarx Holdings Inc. with IT Consulting & Other Services in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| At fiscal year end | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share price | $9.76 | $7.99 | $3.16 | $2.11 | $1.72 |
| Market value | $2.3bn | $1.9bn | $1.1bn | $710m | $582m |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | −$138m | $83m | $153m | $205m | $323m |
| Enterprise value | $2.2bn | $2.0bn | $1.2bn | $916m | $905m |
| Multiples | |||||
| Price / sales | 5.4x | 3.7x | 1.6x | 0.9x | 0.7x |
| Price / earnings | — | — | — | — | — |
| Price / free cash flow | — | — | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: High.
Next results: November 4, 2026, before the open. Analysts expect revenue of $314m for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | −$0.01 | +96% | $1.1bn | +29% |
| Next | $0.07 | +1350% | $1.3bn | +19% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved −64.8% in 90 days, across 1 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −106.7% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 0 analysts raised Ecarx Holdings Inc.'s forecast and 0 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $0.09 | $0.21 |
| 60 days ago | $0.03 | $0.15 |
| 30 days ago | $0.03 | $0.15 |
| 7 days ago | $0.03 | $0.15 |
| Now | −$0.01 | $0.07 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | −$0.01 | −$0.03 | −200.0% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.04 | $0.01 | −75.0% |
| Sept 2025 | −$0.01 | $0.01 | +144.0% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
| Calendar year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | |||||
| ECX | −18% | −61% | −33% | −19% | −41% |
| Industry peers (median) | −35% | +8% | +24% | −23% | −13% |
| S&P 500 | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | |||||
| ECX | 75% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| S&P 500 | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | |||||
| ECX | −38% | −77% | −69% | −75% | −62% |
| S&P 500 | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since March 31, 2021: 93% from December 21, 2022 to October 26, 2026. Getting back needed a 1247% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY22 Q4 | $515.7M |
| FY23 Q4 | $662.2M |
| FY24 Q4 | $771.5M |
| FY25 Q4 | $847.9M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY22 Q4 | -41.2% |
| FY23 Q4 | -19.6% |
| FY24 Q4 | -15.9% |
| FY25 Q4 | -6.5% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY22 Q4 | -15.0% |
| FY23 Q4 | -27.4% |
| FY24 Q4 | -9.8% |
| FY25 Q4 | -12.6% |
| Fiscal year | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||
| Revenue | 325 | 431 | 516 | 662 | 772 | 848 |
| Gross profit | 80 | 127 | 144 | 179 | 160 | 161 |
| EBITDA | −54 | −145 | −203 | −118 | −102 | −35 |
| Operating income | −62 | −155 | −213 | −130 | −123 | −55 |
| Net income | −64 | −182 | −223 | −133 | −130 | −66 |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | −$1.15 | −$0.40 | −$0.39 | −$0.20 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||
| Revenue | — | +32.6% | +19.7% | +28.4% | +16.5% | +9.9% |
| Margins | ||||||
| Gross margin | 24.6% | 29.4% | 27.8% | 27.0% | 20.8% | 19.0% |
| EBITDA margin | −16.6% | −33.6% | −39.3% | −17.8% | −13.3% | −4.1% |
| Operating margin | −19.2% | −36.0% | −41.2% | −19.6% | −15.9% | −6.5% |
| Net margin | −19.6% | −42.2% | −43.3% | −20.1% | −16.8% | −7.8% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −19.5% | −35.7% | −15.0% | −27.4% | −9.8% | −12.6% |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| Cash from operations | −53 | −141 | −59 | −172 | −60 | −94 |
| Capital spending | 10 | 13 | 19 | 9 | 16 | 12 |
| Free cash flow | −63 | −154 | −77 | −181 | −76 | −107 |
| Stock-based pay | 2 | 28 | 105 | 25 | 19 | 13 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −65 | −182 | −183 | −206 | −95 | −120 |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash | 154 | 138 | 107 | 80 | 44 | 87 |
| Total debt | — | — | 190 | 233 | 250 | 410 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −154 | −138 | 83 | 153 | 205 | 323 |
| Diluted shares | 239m | 237m | 239m | 337m | 337m | 339m |
| Last 12 months unless stated | ECX | IBEX | GDS | RMNI | GDYN | UIS | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $848m | $644m | $1.6bn | $438m | $433m | $1.9bn | $383m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 9.9% | 15.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 6.6% | −0.6% | 5.7% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 7.2% | — | 0.8% | 11.1% | −1.1% | 4.3% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | 11.6% | — | 8.3% | 9.7% | −2.0% | 4.7% |
| Gross margin | 19.0% | — | 22.6% | 60.5% | 36.5% | 27.8% | 28.0% |
| Operating margin | −6.5% | 8.5% | −0.5% | 5.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 5.9% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | 8.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 7.5% |
| Net margin | −7.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | −21.7% | 2.2% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | −11.1% | 9.2% | 29.4% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −12.6% | 4.8% | −11.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 5.0% | −79.0% | 0.9% | 5.9% | −2.1% | 6.7% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 5.7% | 0.6% | 2.2% |
| Change in share count | 0.6% | −5.8% | 11.5% | 1.9% | −3.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 9.9% | 6.5% | 15 of 40 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -6.6pp | -0.8pp | 32 of 40 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 19.0% | 28.2% | 24 of 34 |
| Operating margin Profitability | -6.5% | 5.9% | 27 of 36 |
| Net margin Profitability | -7.8% | 2.5% | 30 of 40 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | -12.6% | 5.1% | 31 of 38 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 1.6% | 2.3% | 15 of 36 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 0.8% | 11.8% | 7 of 27 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 0.6% | 0.9% | 19 of 39 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna International Group, LLP | $6.6M | 5.1M | 30.0% | ▲ 0.4% |
| Legal & General Group PLC | $3M | 2.3M | 13.8% | ▲ 114.0% |
| Tudor Investment Corp Et Al | $2.8M | 2.2M | 12.9% | 0.0% |
| Renaissance Technologies LLC | $2.7M | 2.1M | 12.5% | ▲ 5.1% |
| Mitsubishi Ufj Asset Management Co., Ltd. | $1.8M | 1.4M | 8.2% | ▲ 136.4% |
| UBS Group AG | $926,337 | 718K | 4.2% | ▲ 5.3% |
| Barclays PLC | $894,361 | 693K | 4.1% | ▲ 104.9% |
| Marshall Wace, LLP | $686,720 | 532K | 3.1% | ▼ 29.8% |
| State Street Corp | $346,493 | 269K | 1.6% | ▼ 78.3% |
| Concentric Capital Strategies, LP | $336,649 | 261K | 1.5% | ▲ 236.0% |
| Invesco Ltd. | $271,591 | 211K | 1.2% | ▼ 5.3% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $183,862 | 143K | 0.8% | ▼ 31.6% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Ecarx Holdings Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 2 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
New research on the companies we cover arrives in the weekly email. Free, one email a week.
