Geron Corp disclosed a material event
SEC 8-KRead source ↗
Geron Corp is a US-listed company in the biotechnology industry. Its financial year ends in December.
Stock price today
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Model estimate per share
~$1.1
Valuation models combined (2)
Base case. Range ~$0.8–$1.6. Weighted average of 2 models (forward price-to-earnings vs peers, forward price-to-sales vs peers).
Price vs value
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating.
Geron Corp valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
Who’s trading
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
- Insiders0 buying, 1 selling0 purchases and 1 sale by directors and officers, last 12 monthsInsider trades
- Funds129 adding, 92 cuttingOf 41 active managers that changed their stake, 27 added; quarter to June 30, 2026Fund buyers and sellers
The Fundamentalytics view
Current signal Results well short of expectations: Reported earnings per share missed the analysts' consensus estimate by 146% in the quarter to 2026-06-30.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
Highlights
How we pick theseStrengths
Nothing in Geron Corp's latest figures clears our strength thresholds.
Things to watch
- Results due soon. Results are expected around 5 November; the share price can move sharply on the day.
- Volatile shares. Over the past year the shares showed annualised volatility of 66% and a beta of 1.3 against the S&P 500.
- Heavily shorted. 11.6% of the shares available to trade are sold short (8.2 days of average volume to cover).
- Estimates being cut. Analysts' consensus for next year's earnings per share has fallen 26.7% over 90 days.
Latest results
- Earnings per share
- -$0.02 against an average estimate of -$0.01: missed by 146.4%
- Share reaction
- -9.2% in the first session after the results on August 6, 2026, against +0.5% for the S&P 500
- Next report
- November 4, 2026
Price chart
- 1 day+4.5%
- 1 week-19.1%
- 1 month-22.5%
- This year-29.5%
- 1 year-26.2%
- 5 years-44.0%
- S&P 500 this year+11.2%
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
At a glance
Earnings
- Last results
- August 6, 2026
- Next results (est.)
- November 5, 2026
News & updates
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
- Announcement
- Results
Geron Corp reported results
SEC 8-KRead source ↗
Valuation models
We value Geron Corp as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 9.9%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.11 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | — | Does not apply: no revenue, margin or share count to start from |
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$0.8 ~$0.7–$1.6 | Included |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: no twelve-month earnings or share count in the filings yet |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: no twelve-month earnings or share count in the filings yet |
| Forward price-to-sales vs peers Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$1.6 ~$1.7–$6.3 | Included, half weight |
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | — | Does not apply: revenue and margins don't support a positive value |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (growth cash-flow model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$1.1 ~$0.8–$1.6 | 2 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Geron Corp with Biotechnology in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Moat
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
Forecasts and guidance
Next results: November 4, 2026, before the open. Analysts expect revenue of $60m for the quarter.
Analysts' consensus
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | −$0.04 | +66% | $235m | +28% |
| Next | $0.07 | +250% | $341m | +45% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved −26.7% in 90 days, across 5 analysts.
How the EPS forecast has moved
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +175.0% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 1 analyst raised Geron Corp's forecast and 0 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
View chart data
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | −$0.02 | $0.09 |
| 60 days ago | −$0.04 | $0.07 |
| 30 days ago | −$0.04 | $0.07 |
| 7 days ago | −$0.04 | $0.07 |
| Now | −$0.04 | $0.07 |
Earnings against estimates
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | −$0.01 | −$0.02 | −146.4% |
| Mar 2026 | −$0.02 | −$0.00 | +75.5% |
| Dec 2025 | −$0.04 | −$0.02 | +52.9% |
| Sept 2025 | −$0.04 | −$0.03 | +24.4% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Positioning
- Short interest
- 11.6% of tradable shares
- Days to cover
- 8.16 at average volume
- Short interest, 1 month
- −10% to October 15, 2026
- Held by institutions
- 77% of shares
- Held by insiders
- 0.1% of shares
- Employees
- 258 full time
Share-price performance
Market data may be delayedReturn and risk by year
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| GERN | −23% | +98% | −13% | +68% | −63% | −30% |
| Industry peers (median) | −36% | −57% | −18% | −29% | −5% | −26% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| GERN | 42% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 25% | 64% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| GERN | −43% | −31% | −53% | −35% | −70% | −54% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 2, 2015: 86% from September 25, 2018 to March 16, 2020. Getting back needed a 617% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
Price behaviour
- 52-week range
- $0.89 – $1.95
- From 52-week high
- −52.3%
- vs 50-day average
- −27.3%
- vs 200-day average
- −34.7%
- Volatility (1 year)
- 66%
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.28
Share price after results
- Next day
- 3 up, 9 down typical move ±7.8%
- After a week
- 3 up, 9 down typical move ±10.5%
- After a month
- 4 up, 8 down typical move ±16.7%
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 6, 2026 | −9.2% | +0.5% | −5.5% | −3.7% |
| February 25, 2026 | −15.4% | +0.3% | −24.6% | −21.0% |
| November 5, 2025 | −6.1% | −0.7% | +7.8% | +13.9% |
| August 6, 2025 | +8.3% | +0.7% | +19.2% | +16.7% |
| May 7, 2025 | −4.5% | +1.1% | −9.8% | +21.2% |
| February 26, 2025 | −26.6% | −1.5% | −29.1% | −30.4% |
| January 13, 2025 | −7.3% | +0.3% | −6.6% | −12.0% |
| November 7, 2024 | −0.5% | +1.2% | −13.1% | −6.8% |
| August 8, 2024 | +3.1% | +2.8% | −2.2% | −3.3% |
| May 2, 2024 | −3.7% | +2.2% | −4.9% | −6.1% |
| February 28, 2024 | −3.4% | +0.2% | +1.4% | +59.4% |
| January 8, 2024 | +5.0% | +1.3% | −2.0% | −6.0% |
Fundamentals
Where the revenue comes from
| Line of business | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues Before Adjustments | $223M | ▲ 149.5% |
| Products | $184M | ▲ 140.0% |
| Royalty | $258,000 | ▼ 48.3% |
| Government Rebates | -$2.6M | — |
| Sales Returns and Allowance | -$3.8M | — |
| Distributor Service Fees | -$7.5M | — |
| Chargebacks | -$25.5M | — |
| Total Gross To Net Adjustments | -$39.5M | — |
These categories overlap or exclude eliminations, so shares aren't shown.
From Geron Corp's 10-K filed March 2, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.
Who owns it
Funds buying and selling- Reported value
- $626M
- Institutions reporting
- 257
- Shares held vs prior quarter
- ▼ 1.7%
- Positions opened / closed
- 34 / 30
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock, Inc. | $62.9M | 49.1M | 10.0% | ▲ 3.8% |
| RA Capital Management, L.P. | $54.8M | 42.8M | 8.8% | ▼ 32.9% |
| Soleus Capital Management, L.P. | $54.8M | 42.8M | 8.8% | ▲ 3.1% |
| State Street Corp | $45.9M | 35.9M | 7.3% | ▲ 17.6% |
| Citadel Advisors LLC | $37.2M | 29.0M | 5.9% | ▲ 34.6% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $34.9M | 27.3M | 5.6% | ▲ 2.2% |
| Nantahala Capital Management, LLC | $31.3M | 24.4M | 5.0% | ▲ 117.8% |
| Clearbridge Investments, LLC | $25.2M | 19.6M | 4.0% | ▲ 0.1% |
| Eversept Partners, LP | $24M | 18.7M | 3.8% | ▼ 0.6% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | $21.3M | 16.6M | 3.4% | ▲ 48.8% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $18.6M | 14.6M | 3.0% | ▲ 6.5% |
| Morgan Stanley | $16.6M | 12.9M | 2.6% | ▲ 2.2% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Geron Corp's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
Insider trading activity
Full insider history and chart Insider purchases History → $0 0 trades by 0 insiders, last 12 months Insider sales History → $19,119 1 trade by 1 insider · 0% under pre-set plans
Net ▼ $19,119 net selling
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robertson Michelle EVP, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | February 18, 2026 | Sell | 9,855 | $1.94 | $19,119 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Earnings dates and SEC filings
Results announcements
Next expected around November 5, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
- August 6, 2026
- February 25, 2026
- November 5, 2025
- August 6, 2025
- May 7, 2025
- February 26, 2025
Recent SEC filings
- 8-K Current report
- 8-K Current report
- 10-Q Quarterly report
- 8-K Current report
- 10-Q Quarterly report
- DEF 14A Proxy statement
- 8-K Current report
- 10-K Annual report
Data status
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
Geron Corp in brief
- What does Geron Corp do?
- Geron Corp is a US-listed company in the biotechnology industry. Its financial year ends in December.
- What is Geron Corp's stock ticker?
- Geron Corp trades under the ticker GERN on Nasdaq. This page brings together its financial statements, valuation models, ownership and recent company updates.
- Who are Geron Corp's largest institutional shareholders?
- By value reported in 13F filings for June 30, 2026, the largest reported holders are Blackrock, Inc., RA Capital Management, L.P. and Soleus Capital Management, L.P. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M, filed up to 45 days after quarter end.
- Are insiders buying or selling Geron Corp stock?
- Over the last 12 months, Geron Corp's directors and officers reported 0 open-market purchases and 1 sales on Form 4. The insider trading page charts every trade.
- When is Geron Corp's next earnings date?
- Around November 4, 2026, estimated from the spacing of its past results announcements (8-K filings). That is an estimate, not a confirmed date — Geron Corp announces its own schedule.
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