Hilltop Holdings Inc. is a US-listed company in the regional banks industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$28
Valuation models combined (6)
Base case. Range ~$22–$41. Weighted average of 6 models (residual income, justified price-to-book, price-to-book vs return on equity (peers), price-to-book vs peers, forward price-to-earnings vs peers, dividend discount (two-stage)), the residual income counting double.
Modestly overvalued
The price is inside our value range, 34% above our base value.
Price used: $37.83, November 2, 2026
Hilltop Holdings Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to September 2026 was $1.26bn, up 0.2% on a year earlier, slower than the 3.9% growth a quarter earlier. That puts it 176 of 190 for growth among the regional banks companies we cover. The diluted share count is down 8.1% on a year earlier, which lifts each remaining share.
Source: 10-Q filed October 23, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 0.2% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 8.8%. Where it stands out: change in share count of -8.1% ranks 5 of 230 regional banks companies we cover. Where it lags: revenue growth of 0.2% ranks 225 of 245 regional banks companies we cover.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow fell 32.7% while net income fell 11.7%: a 21pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value Hilltop Holdings Inc. as a bank or lender, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.2%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.73 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$28 ~$19–$42 | Primary model, counts double |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$22 ~$19–$27 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs return on equity (peers) The price-to-book that peers with this return on equity trade on, from a line fitted across peers. | ~$41 ~$21–$62 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$30 ~$39–$58 | Included |
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$24 ~$22–$28 | Included |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | ~$25 ~$21–$32 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (residual income) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$28 ~$22–$41 | 6 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Hilltop Holdings Inc. with banks and lenders in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Moderate moat
How hard Hilltop's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 10 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median 1.0% of total assets over 10 years.
Net margin has been a median 11.0%; its worst year was 7.1%.
The diluted share count fell 29.2% over five years; stock-based pay has been a median 0.9% of revenue.
AI disruption exposure: Medium. In this industry, AI could change how the product is made or sold, without replacing the core asset. The score above includes a 5-point deduction for that exposure (71 before it).
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $2.21 | +9% | $1.2bn | −0% |
| Next | $2.44 | +10% | $1.3bn | +3% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +0.5% in 90 days, across 4 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −6.9% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 2 analysts raised Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s forecast and 0 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $2.38 | $2.42 |
| 60 days ago | $2.41 | $2.49 |
| 30 days ago | $2.41 | $2.50 |
| 7 days ago | $2.44 | $2.48 |
| Now | $2.21 | $2.44 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $0.64 | $0.44 | −31.5% |
| Jun 2026 | $0.49 | $0.63 | +28.6% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.49 | $0.64 | +30.6% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.35 | $0.69 | +99.0% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months +19.7%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $1.2bn | $1.3bn | +3.9% |
| Net margin | 11.7% | 12.7% | +8.6% |
| P/E multiple | 14.2x | 14.0x | −1.5% |
| Share count | 65m | 60m | +7.7% |
Biggest factor: net margin.
Last 3 years +35.3%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $1.2bn | $1.3bn | +4.9% |
| Net margin | 8.3% | 12.7% | +51.8% |
| P/E multiple | 17.8x | 14.0x | −21.5% |
| Share count | 65m | 60m | +8.2% |
Biggest factor: net margin.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| HTH | +30% | −13% | +20% | −17% | +21% | +13% |
| Industry peers (median) | +34% | −4% | −2% | +16% | +10% | +24% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| HTH | 67% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 64% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| HTH | −20% | −35% | −21% | −18% | −14% | −14% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 2, 2015: 59% from January 4, 2017 to March 18, 2020. Getting back needed a 146% gain, reached on January 7, 2021, 295 days after the low.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 22, 2026 | −0.4% | −1.7% | +2.1% | — |
| July 23, 2026 | +2.5% | −1.1% | +3.3% | +2.0% |
| April 23, 2026 | −2.4% | +0.4% | +0.3% | −0.4% |
| January 29, 2026 | +2.8% | −0.5% | +9.4% | +5.7% |
| October 23, 2025 | +4.0% | +1.4% | −0.5% | +4.7% |
| July 24, 2025 | −2.7% | +0.5% | −5.6% | +11.1% |
| April 24, 2025 | +0.1% | +2.8% | +2.5% | +2.9% |
| January 30, 2025 | +1.9% | 0.0% | +10.6% | +9.9% |
| October 24, 2024 | −1.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +6.1% |
| July 25, 2024 | +0.2% | +0.6% | −6.7% | −2.6% |
| April 18, 2024 | +4.7% | −1.1% | +6.0% | +12.7% |
| January 25, 2024 | −1.5% | +0.4% | −8.5% | −9.4% |
How Hilltop Holdings Inc.’s listed options are priced, and three ways to use them that follow from our valuation. Quotes are delayed, read November 2, 2026. Check the live chain at your broker before trading.
Not offered: rated Sell.
We suggest selling a put only on well-rated companies, at a strike where the price you would pay if assigned (strike less premium) is at or below our fair value.
Not offered: no liquid call at or above our price target — the model says the upside is worth more than any listed strike.
For holders: sell a call at a strike at or above our fair value, so the shares are only sold at a price the model calls full value.
Not offered: no liquid put and call pair for the same expiry.
For holders of a stock trading at or above our fair value: buy a put for a floor and sell a call to pay for it.
General research, not personal advice. Options can lose you more than you expect and are not suitable for everyone: put sellers can be made to buy shares that keep falling, call sellers give up gains above the strike, and results or news can move prices sharply. Chances shown are approximations from each option’s delta. Spreads, fees and early assignment are not modelled.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | $1.2B |
| FY24 Q1 | $1.2B |
| FY24 Q2 | $1.2B |
| FY24 Q3 | $1.2B |
| FY24 Q4 | $1.2B |
| FY25 Q1 | $1.2B |
| FY25 Q2 | $1.2B |
| FY25 Q3 | $1.3B |
| FY25 Q4 | $1.3B |
| FY26 Q1 | $1.3B |
| FY26 Q2 | $1.3B |
| FY26 Q3 | $1.3B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | -7.4% |
| FY24 Q1 | -5.0% |
| FY24 Q2 | -2.6% |
| FY24 Q3 | -1.7% |
| FY24 Q4 | -0.6% |
| FY25 Q1 | 2.1% |
| FY25 Q2 | 3.7% |
| FY25 Q3 | 6.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | 7.8% |
| FY26 Q1 | 3.4% |
| FY26 Q2 | 3.9% |
| FY26 Q3 | 0.2% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | 36.3% |
| FY24 Q1 | 51.2% |
| FY24 Q2 | 33.2% |
| FY24 Q3 | 34.4% |
| FY24 Q4 | 22.4% |
| FY25 Q1 | 16.6% |
| FY25 Q2 | 33.1% |
| FY25 Q3 | 13.0% |
| FY25 Q4 | -4.3% |
| FY26 Q1 | -15.4% |
| FY26 Q2 | -9.6% |
| FY26 Q3 | 8.8% |
What Hilltop earned on its loans and securities in FY2025, what it paid depositors and lenders, and how its revenue split between running costs, credit losses, tax and profit.
| Interest income | $784M | |
|---|---|---|
| Fee and other income | $841M | 65.6% of revenue |
| Interest paid | $343M | |
| Net interest income | $441M | 34.4% of revenue |
| Revenue | $1.3B | |
| Non-interest expense | $1.1B | 82.2% of revenue |
| Credit-loss provisions | $7.3M | 0.6% of revenue |
| Pre-tax profit | $221M | 17.2% of revenue |
| Income tax | $49M | 3.8% of revenue |
| Other | $6.4M | 0.5% of revenue |
| Net income | $166M | 12.9% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2009 Dec 2009 | 2010 Dec 2010 | 2011 Dec 2011 | 2012 Dec 2012 | 2013 Dec 2013 | 2014 Dec 2014 | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 129 | 132 | 152 | 253 | 1,146 | 1,160 | 1,636 | 1,684 | 1,627 | 1,313 | 1,502 | 2,115 | 1,833 | 1,291 | 1,196 | 1,189 | 1,282 | 1,256 |
| Net income | −2 | −1 | −7 | −6 | 125 | 112 | 211 | 146 | 133 | 121 | 225 | 448 | 374 | 113 | 110 | 113 | 166 | 141 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.22 | −$0.24 | −$0.12 | −$0.10 | $1.40 | $1.17 | $2.09 | $1.48 | $1.36 | $1.28 | $2.44 | $5.01 | $4.61 | $1.60 | $1.69 | $1.74 | $2.64 | $2.40 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | — | +2.3% | +15.5% | +66.3% | +352.9% | +1.2% | +41.0% | +3.0% | −3.4% | −19.3% | +14.3% | +40.8% | −13.3% | −29.6% | −7.4% | −0.6% | +7.8% | +0.2% |
| Net income | — | — | — | — | — | −10.9% | +89.0% | −30.8% | −9.2% | −8.4% | +85.5% | +98.8% | −16.4% | −69.8% | −3.1% | +3.3% | +46.3% | −11.7% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | — | — | −16.4% | +78.6% | −29.2% | −8.1% | −5.9% | +90.6% | +105.3% | −8.0% | −65.3% | +5.6% | +3.0% | +51.7% | −3.9% |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net margin | −1.6% | −0.4% | −4.3% | −2.2% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 21.2% | 20.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 11.2% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 13.3% | 7.2% | −2.4% | 38.6% | 31.7% | −11.6% | 0.3% | −12.0% | −21.6% | 24.5% | −31.6% | 11.5% | 40.4% | 91.3% | 36.3% | 22.4% | −4.3% | 8.8% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 19 | 10 | −3 | 115 | 397 | −91 | 36 | −161 | −321 | 390 | −433 | 280 | 766 | 1,189 | 443 | 274 | −39 | 140 |
| Capital spending | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 33 | 43 | 31 | 42 | 31 | 68 | 42 | 38 | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 30 |
| Free cash flow | 17 | 10 | −4 | 98 | 364 | −135 | 4 | −203 | −352 | 322 | −475 | 243 | 741 | 1,180 | 435 | 267 | −56 | 110 |
| Stock-based pay | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 11 | 14 | 13 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 17 | 9 | −4 | 97 | 362 | −140 | −4 | −213 | −362 | 313 | −487 | 228 | 723 | 1,164 | 419 | 256 | −70 | 97 |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash | 790 | 649 | 579 | 726 | 746 | 813 | 669 | 691 | 487 | 778 | 643 | — | 3,045 | 1,648 | 1,917 | 2,371 | 1,253 | 1,224 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 728 | 342 | 763 | 1,186 | 1,735 | 1,415 | 1,295 | 1,424 | 696 | 859 | 970 | 900 | 834 | 677 | — |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −790 | −649 | −579 | 2 | −404 | −50 | 517 | 1,044 | 928 | 516 | 781 | — | −2,186 | −678 | −1,017 | −1,537 | −576 | −1,224 |
| Diluted shares | 56m | 56m | 56m | 59m | 90m | 91m | 100m | 99m | 97m | 95m | 92m | 89m | 81m | 71m | 65m | 65m | 63m | 59m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dividends | — | — | — | — | 3 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 27 | 30 | 33 | 39 | 43 | 42 | 44 | 45 | 47 |
| Buybacks | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 30 | — | 27 | 59 | 73 | 209 | 124 | 442 | 5 | 20 | 184 | 175 |
| Total returned | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 6 | 51 | 86 | 103 | 241 | 163 | 485 | 47 | 64 | 229 | 222 |
| Quarter | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 | 2026 Q3 Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 301 | 318 | 303 | 330 | 330 | 301 | 316 | 310 |
| Net income | 36 | 42 | 36 | 46 | 42 | 38 | 37 | 25 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.55 | $0.65 | $0.57 | $0.74 | $0.69 | $0.64 | $0.63 | $0.44 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | +3.7% | +11.6% | +2.1% | +8.1% | +9.6% | −5.6% | +4.1% | −6.3% |
| Net income | +23.9% | +52.2% | +77.4% | +54.3% | +17.1% | −10.2% | +1.2% | −45.7% |
| Diluted EPS | +25.0% | +54.8% | +83.9% | +60.9% | +25.5% | −1.5% | +10.5% | −40.5% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | 11.8% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 8.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 40.5% | 1.6% | −77.3% | 82.1% | −29.4% | −44.6% | −51.6% | 162.7% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 123 | 6 | −235 | 273 | −83 | −127 | −157 | 508 |
| Capital spending | 1 | 1 | −0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| Free cash flow | 122 | 5 | −235 | 271 | −97 | −134 | −163 | 504 |
| Stock-based pay | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 120 | 1 | −238 | 268 | −100 | −137 | −166 | 500 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | HTH | ABCB | UBSI | GBCI | FULT | PB | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.3bn | $1.3bn | $1.3bn | $1.2bn | $1.4bn | $1.4bn | $255m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 0.2% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 32.2% | 6.7% | 13.3% | 12.5% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 1.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | −6.3% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 32.0% | 12.2% | 25.9% | 10.7% |
| Net margin | 11.2% | 29.8% | 40.2% | 26.2% | 29.0% | 40.4% | 28.7% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 11.2% | 43.5% | 43.3% | 37.3% | 31.2% | 44.6% | 34.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 8.8% | 41.4% | 41.6% | 34.2% | 1.6% | 42.4% | 31.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 18.7% | 32.7% | 41.2% | 38.1% | 20.8% | 41.9% | 29.9% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% |
| Change in share count | −8.1% | −1.5% | 0.9% | 11.5% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 0.2% | 12.5% | 225 of 245 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -3.7pp | +0.0pp | 198 of 244 |
| Net margin Profitability | 11.2% | 28.7% | 225 of 245 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 1.0% | 1.3% | 72 of 206 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -8.1% | 0.4% | 5 of 230 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Line of business | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Investment Advisory Management and Administrative Service | $181M | ▲ 26.8% |
| Investment Advice | $108M | ▲ 24.6% |
| Mortgage Loan Origination Fees | $103M | ▼ 16.6% |
| Asset Management1 | $44.9M | ▲ 17.8% |
| Commissions | $42.2M | ▲ 13.6% |
| Money Market and Bank Insured Fund Fees | $38.8M | ▲ 30.6% |
| Principal Transactions Commissions and Fees Other | $32M | ▲ 6.1% |
| Underwriting | $24M | ▲ 65.3% |
| Deposit Account | $18.9M | ▼ 9.0% |
| Trust Fees | $12.4M | ▼ 7.5% |
| Investment Advisory Management and Administrative Service Other | $4.1M | ▲ 20.4% |
These categories overlap or exclude eliminations, so shares aren't shown.
From Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s 10-K filed February 13, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock, Inc. | $256M | 6.6M | 20.6% | ▼ 0.1% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | $101M | 2.6M | 8.2% | ▼ 0.3% |
| State Street Corp | $98.8M | 2.5M | 8.0% | ▲ 1.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | $95.7M | 2.5M | 7.7% | ▼ 0.8% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $67.7M | 1.7M | 5.5% | ▼ 1.5% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $40.6M | 1.0M | 3.3% | ▼ 0.1% |
| Ameriprise Financial Inc | $28.2M | 726K | 2.3% | ▲ 8.7% |
| Invesco Ltd. | $26M | 669K | 2.1% | ▲ 8.4% |
| Jpmorgan Chase & Co | $25.8M | 660K | 2.1% | ▲ 30.7% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | $24.6M | 635K | 2.0% | ▼ 9.8% |
| Jacobs Levy Equity Management, Inc | $24.1M | 622K | 1.9% | ▼ 7.3% |
| AQR Capital Management LLC | $22M | 566K | 1.8% | ▲ 7.5% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
No trades in Hilltop Holdings Inc. disclosed in the last 12 months; 2 earlier trades on record.
Next expected around January 28, 2027 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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