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Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc.: what the price is pricing in

The price implies earnings growth of -6.1% a year; our model expects 9.4%. That gap is wide enough for a long position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.

No published rating for Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc.: valuation models disagree too widely to rate: held for review. The readings below run our models backwards for research and show how trading the gap would have done; they are not a valuation or a rating. The valuation page shows the models and their status.

What growth in earnings is the price paying for?

The price implies earnings growth of -6.1% a year; our model expects 9.4%.

Market more pessimistic than our model: long this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position2721 long, 6 short, since March 31, 2013
Beat the S&P 50013 of 2748.1% of quarters held
Strategy against the index−21.6%cumulative; worst fall -54.9%
$10,000 became$42,991S&P 500 bought and held: $54,075

Over time

The earnings growth the price-to-earnings ratio requires, against the growth our model assumes. Net income is already after interest, so it is valued at the return shareholders require, plus spare cash (none for banks and insurers, whose cash is funded by deposits and policies), with no debt subtracted.

-13%-4%5%14%24% 2013201520172019202120232025 $9.0$19.8$30.5$41.3 Short from 2013-06-30Short from 2013-09-30Short from 2018-03-31Short from 2018-06-30Short from 2018-09-30Long from 2019-12-31Long from 2020-03-31Long from 2020-06-30Long from 2020-09-30Long from 2020-12-31Long from 2021-03-31Long from 2021-06-30Long from 2021-09-30Long from 2021-12-31Long from 2022-03-31Long from 2022-06-30Long from 2022-09-30Long from 2022-12-31Long from 2023-03-31Long from 2023-06-30Long from 2023-09-30Short from 2024-12-31Long from 2025-06-30Long from 2025-09-30Long from 2025-12-31Long from 2026-03-31Long from 2026-06-30Long from 2026-09-30
Growth our model assumes Growth the P/E implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

$0$20.0k$40.0k 2013201520172019202120232025 $54.1k$43.0k
StrategyS&P 500, buy and hold Hypothetical, before costs. The strategy holds the S&P 500 and only changes on a signal: it switches into HWBK in long quarters and adds a short of HWBK in short quarters. The gap between the lines is what the signal added or lost.

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 27 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 13, by −0.1% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

PositionsQuartersBeat the S&P 500Average vs S&P 500, a quarterTypical (median), a quarterA yearConfidence (t)Evidence
Longs 21 52.4% −0.2% +0.0% −4.4% -0.07 No reliable evidence
Shorts 6 33.3% +0.3% −4.3% −0.5% 0.07 Too few quarters
All positions 27 48.1% −0.1% −0.9% −3.5% -0.04 No reliable evidence

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (52)
FromPrice paidGrowth the P/E impliesGrowth our model assumesPositionHWBKS&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open) $38.02 -6.1% 9.4% Long +3.5% −0.8%
June 30, 2026 $39.30 -4.7% 7.4% Long −2.7% +2.4%
March 31, 2026 $33.69 -7.1% 6.6% Long +17.3% +15.1%
December 31, 2025 $34.88 -5.3% 5.0% Long −2.8% −4.4%
September 30, 2025 $31.04 -6.0% 4.4% Long +13.0% +2.7%
June 30, 2025 $29.14 -5.7% 4.8% Long +7.2% +8.1%
March 31, 2025 $28.23 -5.4% 4.1% No position +4.0% +10.8%
December 31, 2024 $28.35 13.5% 3.3% Short +0.3% −4.3%
December 31, 2023 $25.37 -1.4% 2.0% No position −18.8% +10.4%
September 30, 2023 $16.25 -11.8% 2.0% Long +57.4% +11.6%
June 30, 2023 $17.95 -12.2% 2.0% Long −8.5% −3.2%
March 31, 2023 $23.38 -9.4% 2.3% Long −19.4% +8.7%
December 31, 2022 $21.77 -12.9% 3.7% Long +8.2% +7.5%
September 30, 2022 $21.86 -13.4% 4.8% Long +0.3% +7.6%
June 30, 2022 $25.49 -12.2% 6.7% Long −13.6% −4.9%
March 31, 2022 $25.28 -8.1% 11.1% Long +5.6% −16.1%
December 31, 2021 $25.94 -10.0% 13.6% Long −2.0% −4.6%
September 30, 2021 $23.16 -11.3% 17.6% Long +12.7% +11.1%
June 30, 2021 $22.93 -10.8% 17.4% Long +1.7% +0.6%
March 31, 2021 $21.29 -7.3% 13.9% Long +8.4% +8.4%
December 31, 2020 $21.90 -5.4% 11.2% Long −2.2% +6.3%
September 30, 2020 $18.94 -6.4% 7.7% Long +16.3% +12.1%
June 30, 2020 $19.69 -6.0% 6.6% Long −3.2% +9.0%
March 31, 2020 $18.35 -11.1% 6.2% Long +8.0% +20.2%
December 31, 2019 $25.50 -4.5% 5.8% Long −27.6% −19.4%
September 30, 2019 $23.83 -4.8% 4.8% No position +7.5% +9.0%
June 30, 2019 $26.80 -2.7% 4.0% No position −10.6% +1.8%
March 31, 2019 $23.24 2.3% 3.2% No position +15.8% +4.2%
December 31, 2018 $21.03 7.0% 2.8% No position +11.0% +13.5%
September 30, 2018 $22.75 13.9% 2.8% Short −7.2% −13.5%
June 30, 2018 $21.90 17.1% 3.3% Short +4.3% +7.7%
March 31, 2018 $20.64 19.4% 3.9% Short +10.9% +3.5%
December 31, 2017 $20.75 1.6% 3.6% No position −0.2% −1.0%
September 30, 2017 $20.70 1.3% 2.0% No position +0.6% +6.8%
June 30, 2017 $20.95 2.7% 2.0% No position −0.9% +4.4%
March 31, 2017 $21.10 5.5% 2.0% No position −0.4% +3.1%
December 31, 2016 $17.70 0.0% 2.0% No position +19.6% +5.9%
September 30, 2016 $15.25 -4.0% 2.0% No position +16.5% +4.0%
June 30, 2016 $13.79 -7.4% 2.0% No position +11.0% +3.8%
March 31, 2016 $14.75 -3.5% 2.0% No position −6.2% +2.5%
December 31, 2015 $15.75 -5.4% 2.0% No position −6.0% +1.3%
September 30, 2015 $13.97 -5.4% 2.0% No position +13.1% +7.0%
June 30, 2015 $14.32 -6.0% 2.0% No position −2.1% −6.4%
March 31, 2015 $13.39 -3.8% 2.0% No position +7.3% +0.2%
December 31, 2014 $14.25 -5.2% 2.0% No position −5.7% +0.9%
September 30, 2014 $13.75 -5.8% 2.0% No position +4.0% +4.9%
June 30, 2014 $12.52 -7.4% 2.0% No position +10.2% +1.1%
March 31, 2014 $13.23 2.8% 2.0% No position −1.2% +5.2%
December 31, 2013 $12.15 -3.4% 2.0% No position +9.3% +1.7%
September 30, 2013 $13.61 13.7% 2.0% Short −10.4% +10.5%
June 30, 2013 $12.50 23.7% 2.0% Short +9.3% +5.2%
March 31, 2013 $11.52 10.2% 2.0% No position +13.3% +2.9%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc.'s quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

Head to head: BRBS vs HWBKHWBK vs OVLYBPRN vs HWBK

More: Regional Banks stocks compared, Financials sector, rankings of US companies

Figures from Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc.'s SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved October 29, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc.