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KLA Corporation: what the price is pricing in

There is no current cash flow reading for KLA Corporation: its latest is from December 31, 2024. Switch lens below to see the other readings and how trading the gap would have done.

What growth in cash flow is the price paying for?

No current reading. The latest is from December 31, 2024: the figures this lens needs have not been filed recently enough (or no longer apply), so there is no position this quarter.

Quarters with a position540 long, 54 short, since September 30, 2011
Beat the S&P 50020 of 5437.0% of quarters held
Strategy against the index−91.8%cumulative; worst fall -93.1%
$10,000 became$6,479S&P 500 bought and held: $63,149

Over time

The growth in owner earnings (free cash flow after stock-based pay) that would justify the share price in our discounted-cash-flow model, against the growth the model itself assumes from the company's record.

2%17%33%48%64% 2011201320152017201920212023 $3.6$31.3$58.9$86.6 Short from 2011-09-30Short from 2011-12-31Short from 2012-03-31Short from 2012-06-30Short from 2012-09-30Short from 2012-12-31Short from 2013-03-31Short from 2013-06-30Short from 2013-09-30Short from 2013-12-31Short from 2014-03-31Short from 2014-06-30Short from 2014-09-30Short from 2014-12-31Short from 2015-03-31Short from 2015-06-30Short from 2015-09-30Short from 2015-12-31Short from 2016-03-31Short from 2016-06-30Short from 2016-09-30Short from 2016-12-31Short from 2017-03-31Short from 2017-06-30Short from 2017-09-30Short from 2017-12-31Short from 2018-03-31Short from 2018-06-30Short from 2018-09-30Short from 2018-12-31Short from 2019-03-31Short from 2019-06-30Short from 2019-09-30Short from 2019-12-31Short from 2020-03-31Short from 2020-06-30Short from 2020-09-30Short from 2020-12-31Short from 2021-03-31Short from 2021-06-30Short from 2021-09-30Short from 2021-12-31Short from 2022-03-31Short from 2022-06-30Short from 2022-09-30Short from 2022-12-31Short from 2023-03-31Short from 2023-06-30Short from 2023-09-30Short from 2023-12-31Short from 2024-03-31Short from 2024-06-30Short from 2024-09-30Short from 2024-12-31
Growth our model assumes Growth the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

$0$20.0k$40.0k$60.0k 20112013201520172019202120232025 $63.1k$6.5k
StrategyS&P 500, buy and hold Hypothetical, before costs. The strategy holds the S&P 500 and only changes on a signal: it switches into KLAC in long quarters and adds a short of KLAC in short quarters. The gap between the lines is what the signal added or lost.

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 54 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 20, by −3.8% a quarter on average. That is reliably worse than the index: trading the gap lost money on this company. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

PositionsQuartersBeat the S&P 500Average vs S&P 500, a quarterTypical (median), a quarterA yearConfidence (t)Evidence
Longs 0 — — — — — —
Shorts 54 37.0% −3.8% −2.6% −16.9% -2.39 Strong evidence: worse
All positions 54 37.0% −3.8% −2.6% −16.9% -2.39 Strong evidence: worse

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (54)
FromPrice paidGrowth the price impliesGrowth our model assumesPositionKLACS&P 500
December 31, 2024 $630.12 55.8% 6.0% Short +8.1% −4.3%
September 30, 2024 $774.41 61.2% 4.5% Short −18.4% +2.5%
June 30, 2024 $824.51 63.7% 4.1% Short −5.9% +5.8%
March 31, 2024 $698.57 60.0% 5.3% Short +18.3% +4.4%
December 31, 2023 $581.30 54.4% 8.7% Short +20.4% +10.4%
September 30, 2023 $458.66 48.9% 17.9% Short +27.1% +11.6%
June 30, 2023 $485.02 50.5% 20.0% Short −5.2% −3.2%
March 31, 2023 $399.17 47.8% 20.0% Short +21.9% +8.7%
December 31, 2022 $377.03 47.5% 20.0% Short +6.2% +7.5%
September 30, 2022 $302.63 45.5% 20.0% Short +25.0% +7.6%
June 30, 2022 $319.08 48.5% 20.0% Short −4.8% −4.9%
March 31, 2022 $366.06 53.7% 20.0% Short −12.5% −16.1%
December 31, 2021 $430.11 60.1% 20.0% Short −14.7% −4.6%
September 30, 2021 $334.51 57.1% 19.4% Short +28.9% +11.1%
June 30, 2021 $324.21 57.1% 16.7% Short +3.5% +0.6%
March 31, 2021 $330.40 59.1% 16.0% Short −1.6% +8.4%
December 31, 2020 $258.91 55.4% 19.2% Short +28.0% +6.3%
September 30, 2020 $193.74 49.2% 20.0% Short +34.2% +12.1%
June 30, 2020 $194.48 49.2% 20.0% Short +0.1% +9.0%
March 31, 2020 $143.74 44.4% 20.0% Short +36.0% +20.2%
December 31, 2019 $178.17 50.5% 17.0% Short −18.9% −19.4%
September 30, 2019 $159.45 50.5% 14.2% Short +12.3% +9.0%
June 30, 2019 $118.20 43.3% 14.0% Short +35.6% +1.8%
March 31, 2019 $119.41 42.5% 14.1% Short −0.3% +4.2%
December 31, 2018 $89.49 37.9% 13.2% Short +34.4% +13.5%
September 30, 2018 $101.71 41.6% 14.4% Short −11.3% −13.5%
June 30, 2018 $102.53 42.0% 12.3% Short −0.2% +7.7%
March 31, 2018 $109.01 43.9% 13.1% Short −5.3% +3.5%
December 31, 2017 $105.07 44.0% 13.9% Short +4.3% −1.0%
September 30, 2017 $106.00 47.6% 11.3% Short −0.3% +6.8%
June 30, 2017 $91.51 46.3% 10.1% Short +16.6% +4.4%
March 31, 2017 $95.07 48.2% 9.7% Short −3.2% +3.1%
December 31, 2016 $78.68 46.2% 6.8% Short +21.6% +5.9%
September 30, 2016 $69.71 44.4% 3.9% Short +13.7% +4.0%
June 30, 2016 $73.25 48.4% 2.0% Short −4.1% +3.8%
March 31, 2016 $72.81 45.2% 2.0% Short +1.4% +2.5%
December 31, 2015 $69.35 45.1% 2.0% Short +5.8% +1.3%
September 30, 2015 $50.00 38.6% 2.0% Short +39.8% +7.0%
June 30, 2015 $56.21 42.5% 2.0% Short −10.2% −6.4%
March 31, 2015 $58.29 43.2% 2.0% Short −2.7% +0.2%
December 31, 2014 $70.32 44.9% 2.0% Short −16.5% +0.9%
September 30, 2014 $78.78 46.0% 2.0% Short +11.7% +4.9%
June 30, 2014 $72.64 44.5% 2.0% Short +9.2% +1.1%
March 31, 2014 $69.14 44.2% 4.0% Short +5.8% +5.2%
December 31, 2013 $64.46 42.5% 4.0% Short +8.0% +1.7%
September 30, 2013 $60.85 41.5% 4.4% Short +6.7% +10.5%
June 30, 2013 $55.73 38.9% 2.0% Short +10.0% +5.2%
March 31, 2013 $52.74 39.1% 2.0% Short +6.5% +2.9%
December 31, 2012 $47.76 36.0% 2.0% Short +11.2% +10.5%
September 30, 2012 $47.71 36.3% 2.0% Short +1.0% −0.4%
June 30, 2012 $49.25 38.0% 11.6% Short −2.4% +6.3%
March 31, 2012 $54.42 40.7% 20.0% Short −8.9% −2.8%
December 31, 2011 $48.25 38.5% 13.0% Short +13.6% +12.7%
September 30, 2011 $38.28 35.9% 13.0% Short +27.0% +11.6%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from KLA Corporation's quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

Head to head: KLAC vs LRCXAMAT vs KLACASML vs KLAC

More: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment stocks compared, Technology sector, rankings of US companies

Figures from KLA Corporation's SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved October 30, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to KLA Corporation.