Dorian LPG LTD.: what the price is pricing in
The price implies cash-flow growth of -2.5% a year; our model expects 13.0%. That gap is wide enough for a long position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.
What growth in cash flow is the price paying for?
The price implies cash-flow growth of -2.5% a year; our model expects 13.0%.
Market more pessimistic than our model: long this quarter
Over time
$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500
Skill or luck?
In plain English: Across 24 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 12, by +6.2% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.
| Positions | Quarters | Beat the S&P 500 | Average vs S&P 500, a quarter | Typical (median), a quarter | A year | Confidence (t) | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longs | 22 | 54.5% | +9.0% | +1.0% | +27.1% | 1.66 | Some evidence |
| Shorts | 2 | 0.0% | −24.7% | −24.7% | −69.3% | — | Too few quarters |
| All positions | 24 | 50.0% | +6.2% | +0.3% | +12.9% | 1.16 | No reliable evidence |
Every quarter (31)
| From | Price paid | Growth the price implies | Growth our model assumes | Position | LPG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2026 (open) | $55.06 | -2.5% | 13.0% | Long | −5.6% | −0.8% |
| June 30, 2026 | $34.78 | -7.8% | 13.0% | Long | +61.9% | +2.4% |
| March 31, 2026 | $34.20 | -6.1% | 2.0% | No position | +4.3% | +15.1% |
| December 31, 2025 | $24.34 | -4.8% | 4.0% | No position | +43.6% | −4.4% |
| September 30, 2025 | $29.80 | -3.9% | 4.0% | No position | −16.3% | +2.7% |
| June 30, 2025 | $24.38 | -9.5% | 4.0% | Long | +24.7% | +8.1% |
| March 31, 2025 | $22.34 | -14.6% | 4.0% | Long | +11.5% | +10.8% |
| December 31, 2024 | $24.37 | -16.5% | 7.6% | Long | −5.7% | −4.3% |
| September 30, 2024 | $34.42 | -13.7% | 20.0% | Long | −26.6% | +2.5% |
| June 30, 2024 | $41.96 | -10.6% | 13.0% | Long | −15.7% | +5.8% |
| March 31, 2024 | $38.46 | -11.1% | 13.0% | Long | +11.8% | +4.4% |
| December 31, 2023 | $43.87 | -7.0% | 13.0% | Long | −10.0% | +10.4% |
| September 30, 2023 | $28.73 | -7.4% | 13.0% | Long | +57.8% | +11.6% |
| June 30, 2023 | $25.65 | -7.2% | 13.0% | Long | +16.1% | −3.2% |
| March 31, 2023 | $19.94 | -8.7% | 10.7% | Long | +34.8% | +8.7% |
| December 31, 2022 | $18.95 | -7.7% | 2.0% | No position | +9.9% | +7.5% |
| September 30, 2022 | $13.57 | -9.9% | 5.2% | Long | +47.2% | +7.6% |
| June 30, 2022 | $15.20 | -8.7% | 4.7% | Long | −5.0% | −4.9% |
| March 31, 2022 | $14.49 | -9.9% | 7.1% | Long | +22.1% | −16.1% |
| December 31, 2021 | $12.69 | -12.2% | 10.3% | Long | +22.8% | −4.6% |
| September 30, 2021 | $12.41 | -10.1% | 7.1% | Long | +2.3% | +11.1% |
| June 30, 2021 | $14.12 | -6.6% | 8.1% | Long | −4.8% | +0.6% |
| March 31, 2021 | $13.13 | -4.2% | 18.6% | Long | +7.5% | +8.4% |
| December 31, 2020 | $12.19 | -3.8% | 20.0% | Long | +7.7% | +6.3% |
| September 30, 2020 | $8.01 | -11.2% | 13.0% | Long | +52.2% | +12.1% |
| June 30, 2020 | $7.74 | -7.0% | 13.0% | Long | +3.5% | +9.0% |
| March 31, 2020 | $8.71 | 1.3% | 13.0% | Long | −11.1% | +20.2% |
| December 31, 2019 | $15.48 | 12.8% | 13.0% | No position | −43.7% | −19.4% |
| September 30, 2019 | $10.36 | 18.8% | 10.7% | No position | +49.4% | +9.0% |
| June 30, 2019 | $9.02 | 16.3% | 2.0% | Short | +14.9% | +1.8% |
| March 31, 2019 | $6.42 | 15.3% | 2.5% | Short | +40.5% | +4.2% |
What growth in earnings is the price paying for?
The price implies earnings growth of -14.7% a year; our model expects 13.0%.
Market more pessimistic than our model: long this quarter
Over time
$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500
Skill or luck?
In plain English: Across 27 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 16, by +10.7% a quarter on average. That stands out clearly from chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.
| Positions | Quarters | Beat the S&P 500 | Average vs S&P 500, a quarter | Typical (median), a quarter | A year | Confidence (t) | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longs | 27 | 59.3% | +10.7% | +2.5% | +35.9% | 2.23 | Strong evidence |
| Shorts | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| All positions | 27 | 59.3% | +10.7% | +2.5% | +35.9% | 2.23 | Strong evidence |
Every quarter (33)
| From | Price paid | Growth the P/E implies | Growth our model assumes | Position | LPG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2026 (open) | $55.06 | -14.7% | 13.0% | Long | −5.6% | −0.8% |
| June 30, 2026 | $34.78 | -15.4% | 13.0% | Long | +61.9% | +2.4% |
| March 31, 2026 | $34.20 | -7.3% | 2.0% | No position | +4.3% | +15.1% |
| December 31, 2025 | $24.34 | -10.3% | 4.0% | Long | +43.6% | −4.4% |
| September 30, 2025 | $29.80 | 5.4% | 4.0% | No position | −16.3% | +2.7% |
| June 30, 2025 | $24.38 | -10.5% | 4.0% | Long | +24.7% | +8.1% |
| March 31, 2025 | $22.34 | -22.9% | 4.0% | Long | +11.5% | +10.8% |
| December 31, 2024 | $24.37 | -28.4% | 7.6% | Long | −5.7% | −4.3% |
| September 30, 2024 | $34.42 | -25.1% | 20.0% | Long | −26.6% | +2.5% |
| June 30, 2024 | $41.96 | -20.0% | 13.0% | Long | −15.7% | +5.8% |
| March 31, 2024 | $38.46 | -20.6% | 13.0% | Long | +11.8% | +4.4% |
| December 31, 2023 | $43.87 | -14.9% | 13.0% | Long | −10.0% | +10.4% |
| September 30, 2023 | $28.73 | -18.4% | 13.0% | Long | +57.8% | +11.6% |
| June 30, 2023 | $25.65 | -18.1% | 13.0% | Long | +16.1% | −3.2% |
| March 31, 2023 | $19.94 | -18.1% | 10.7% | Long | +34.8% | +8.7% |
| December 31, 2022 | $18.95 | -14.3% | 2.0% | Long | +9.9% | +7.5% |
| September 30, 2022 | $13.57 | -21.2% | 5.2% | Long | +47.2% | +7.6% |
| June 30, 2022 | $15.20 | -17.9% | 4.7% | Long | −5.0% | −4.9% |
| March 31, 2022 | $14.49 | -16.1% | 7.1% | Long | +22.1% | −16.1% |
| December 31, 2021 | $12.69 | -21.9% | 10.3% | Long | +22.8% | −4.6% |
| September 30, 2021 | $12.41 | -18.4% | 7.1% | Long | +2.3% | +11.1% |
| June 30, 2021 | $14.12 | -14.3% | 8.1% | Long | −4.8% | +0.6% |
| March 31, 2021 | $13.13 | -13.3% | 18.6% | Long | +7.5% | +8.4% |
| December 31, 2020 | $12.19 | 0.6% | 20.0% | Long | +7.7% | +6.3% |
| September 30, 2020 | $8.01 | -24.8% | 13.0% | Long | +52.2% | +12.1% |
| June 30, 2020 | $7.74 | -17.5% | 13.0% | Long | +3.5% | +9.0% |
| March 31, 2020 | $8.71 | 5.8% | 13.0% | No position | −11.1% | +20.2% |
| December 31, 2019 | $15.48 | 13.9% | 13.0% | No position | −43.7% | −19.4% |
| March 31, 2017 | $10.53 | 13.6% | 13.0% | No position | −22.3% | +3.1% |
| December 31, 2016 | $8.21 | -15.4% | 4.0% | Long | +28.3% | +5.9% |
| September 30, 2016 | $6.00 | -30.0%* | 13.0% | Long | +36.8% | +4.0% |
| June 30, 2016 | $7.05 | -29.4% | 13.0% | Long | −14.9% | +3.8% |
| March 31, 2016 | $9.40 | -21.1% | 13.0% | Long | −25.0% | +2.5% |
Is the price-to-earnings ratio cheap or dear for the growth delivered?
Dorian LPG LTD. trades on 7.3 times earnings while its earnings per share grew 15.1% a year: a PEG of 0.48.
Market more pessimistic than our model: long this quarter
Over time
$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500
Skill or luck?
In plain English: Across 12 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 7, by +0.1% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.
| Positions | Quarters | Beat the S&P 500 | Average vs S&P 500, a quarter | Typical (median), a quarter | A year | Confidence (t) | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longs | 10 | 60.0% | +3.0% | +1.6% | +2.5% | 0.40 | No reliable evidence |
| Shorts | 2 | 50.0% | −14.1% | −14.1% | −71.7% | — | Too few quarters |
| All positions | 12 | 58.3% | +0.1% | +1.6% | −17.3% | 0.01 | No reliable evidence |
Every quarter (14)
| From | Price paid | Price-to-earnings ratio (x) | EPS growth, 3 years (%) | Position | LPG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2026 (open) | $55.06 | 7.3x | 15.1% | Long | −5.6% | −0.8% |
| June 30, 2026 | $34.78 | 7.7x | 1.9% | Short | +61.9% | +2.4% |
| June 30, 2025 | $24.38 | 11.5x | 6.2% | No position | +24.7% | +8.1% |
| March 31, 2025 | $22.34 | 5.9x | 26.5% | Long | +11.5% | +10.8% |
| December 31, 2024 | $24.37 | 4.3x | 37.8% | Long | −5.7% | −4.3% |
| September 30, 2024 | $34.42 | 4.6x | 60.8% | Long | −26.6% | +2.5% |
| June 30, 2024 | $41.96 | 5.5x | 59.9% | Long | −15.7% | +5.8% |
| March 31, 2024 | $38.46 | 5.1x | 70.3% | Long | +11.8% | +4.4% |
| December 31, 2023 | $43.87 | 6.9x | 120.0% | Long | −10.0% | +10.4% |
| September 30, 2023 | $28.73 | 5.8x | 54.5% | Long | +57.8% | +11.6% |
| June 30, 2023 | $25.65 | 6.0x | 52.8% | Long | +16.1% | −3.2% |
| March 31, 2023 | $19.94 | 6.1x | 108.9% | Long | +34.8% | +8.7% |
| December 31, 2022 | $18.95 | 7.8x | 75.3% | Long | +9.9% | +7.5% |
| March 31, 2020 | $8.71 | 24.0x | 5.4% | Short | −11.1% | +20.2% |
What profit margin is the price paying for?
The price implies an owner-earnings margin of 13.9%; the company has kept 33.8%.
Market more pessimistic than our model: long this quarter
Over time
$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500
Skill or luck?
In plain English: Across 41 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 23, by +4.4% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.
| Positions | Quarters | Beat the S&P 500 | Average vs S&P 500, a quarter | Typical (median), a quarter | A year | Confidence (t) | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longs | 26 | 53.8% | +8.4% | +1.0% | +24.2% | 1.68 | Some evidence |
| Shorts | 15 | 60.0% | −2.4% | +3.3% | −19.1% | -0.42 | No reliable evidence |
| All positions | 41 | 56.1% | +4.4% | +1.5% | +6.2% | 1.15 | No reliable evidence |
Every quarter (43)
| From | Price paid | Margin the price implies | Margin delivered | Position | LPG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2026 (open) | $55.06 | 13.9% | 33.8% | Long | −5.6% | −0.8% |
| June 30, 2026 | $34.78 | 11.6% | 38.1% | Long | +61.9% | +2.4% |
| March 31, 2026 | $34.20 | 25.0% | 40.0% | Long | +4.3% | +15.1% |
| December 31, 2025 | $24.34 | 19.1% | 31.8% | Long | +43.6% | −4.4% |
| September 30, 2025 | $29.80 | 25.4% | 40.1% | Long | −16.3% | +2.7% |
| June 30, 2025 | $24.38 | 19.4% | 42.6% | Long | +24.7% | +8.1% |
| March 31, 2025 | $22.34 | 15.3% | 45.5% | Long | +11.5% | +10.8% |
| December 31, 2024 | $24.37 | 11.0% | 44.8% | Long | −5.7% | −4.3% |
| September 30, 2024 | $34.42 | 6.5% | 44.2% | Long | −26.6% | +2.5% |
| June 30, 2024 | $41.96 | 11.6% | 45.3% | Long | −15.7% | +5.8% |
| March 31, 2024 | $38.46 | 11.5% | 46.1% | Long | +11.8% | +4.4% |
| December 31, 2023 | $43.87 | 14.5% | 45.7% | Long | −10.0% | +10.4% |
| September 30, 2023 | $28.73 | 12.6% | 40.6% | Long | +57.8% | +11.6% |
| June 30, 2023 | $25.65 | 12.8% | 40.9% | Long | +16.1% | −3.2% |
| March 31, 2023 | $19.94 | 14.4% | 43.9% | Long | +34.8% | +8.7% |
| December 31, 2022 | $18.95 | 25.4% | 44.7% | Long | +9.9% | +7.5% |
| September 30, 2022 | $13.57 | 18.3% | 44.1% | Long | +47.2% | +7.6% |
| June 30, 2022 | $15.20 | 19.6% | 42.9% | Long | −5.0% | −4.9% |
| March 31, 2022 | $14.49 | 16.1% | 43.1% | Long | +22.1% | −16.1% |
| December 31, 2021 | $12.69 | 11.8% | 43.4% | Long | +22.8% | −4.6% |
| September 30, 2021 | $12.41 | 15.0% | 40.7% | Long | +2.3% | +11.1% |
| June 30, 2021 | $14.12 | 16.1% | 37.5% | Long | −4.8% | +0.6% |
| March 31, 2021 | $13.13 | 8.7% | 31.6% | Long | +7.5% | +8.4% |
| December 31, 2020 | $12.19 | 8.0% | 30.6% | Long | +7.7% | +6.3% |
| September 30, 2020 | $8.01 | 8.5% | 34.3% | Long | +52.2% | +12.1% |
| June 30, 2020 | $7.74 | 9.6% | 30.3% | Long | +3.5% | +9.0% |
| March 31, 2020 | $8.71 | 12.7% | 24.5% | Long | −11.1% | +20.2% |
| December 31, 2019 | $15.48 | 19.7% | 19.9% | No position | −43.7% | −19.4% |
| September 30, 2019 | $10.36 | 23.8% | 15.2% | Short | +49.4% | +9.0% |
| June 30, 2019 | $9.02 | 44.8% | 20.0% | Short | +14.9% | +1.8% |
| March 31, 2019 | $6.42 | 37.5% | 18.2% | Short | +40.5% | +4.2% |
| December 31, 2018 | $5.83 | 40.1% | -50.0% | Short | +10.1% | +13.5% |
| September 30, 2018 | $7.97 | 46.4% | -95.4% | Short | −26.9% | −13.5% |
| June 30, 2018 | $7.64 | 33.4% | -128.7% | Short | +4.3% | +7.7% |
| March 31, 2018 | $7.49 | 31.9% | -135.9% | Short | +2.0% | +3.5% |
| December 31, 2017 | $8.22 | 23.0% | -160.7% | Short | −8.9% | −1.0% |
| September 30, 2017 | $6.82 | 24.2% | -194.6% | Short | +20.5% | +6.8% |
| June 30, 2017 | $8.18 | 42.9% | -220.6% | Short | −16.6% | +4.4% |
| March 31, 2017 | $10.53 | 20.9% | -279.4% | Short | −22.3% | +3.1% |
| December 31, 2016 | $8.21 | 42.4% | -334.3% | Short | +28.3% | +5.9% |
| September 30, 2016 | $6.00 | 18.4% | -361.3% | Short | +36.8% | +4.0% |
| June 30, 2016 | $7.05 | 21.4% | -386.3% | Short | −14.9% | +3.8% |
| March 31, 2016 | $9.40 | 33.3% | -377.5% | Short | −25.0% | +2.5% |
What return on equity is the price paying for?
The price implies a return on equity of 13.9%; the company earned 28.3%.
Market more pessimistic than our model: long this quarter
Over time
$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500
Skill or luck?
In plain English: Across 25 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 15, by +2.5% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.
| Positions | Quarters | Beat the S&P 500 | Average vs S&P 500, a quarter | Typical (median), a quarter | A year | Confidence (t) | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longs | 13 | 53.8% | +5.7% | +0.7% | +8.4% | 0.70 | No reliable evidence |
| Shorts | 12 | 66.7% | −0.8% | +3.4% | −12.3% | -0.13 | No reliable evidence |
| All positions | 25 | 60.0% | +2.5% | +3.3% | −2.1% | 0.50 | No reliable evidence |
Every quarter (43)
| From | Price paid | Return on equity the price implies | Return on equity delivered | Position | LPG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2026 (open) | $55.06 | 13.9% | 28.3% | Long | −5.6% | −0.8% |
| June 30, 2026 | $34.78 | 10.3% | 17.7% | Long | +61.9% | +2.4% |
| March 31, 2026 | $34.20 | 10.6% | 11.2% | No position | +4.3% | +15.1% |
| December 31, 2025 | $24.34 | 8.3% | 8.8% | No position | +43.6% | −4.4% |
| September 30, 2025 | $29.80 | 9.8% | 4.5% | Short | −16.3% | +2.7% |
| June 30, 2025 | $24.38 | 8.5% | 8.7% | No position | +24.7% | +8.1% |
| March 31, 2025 | $22.34 | 7.8% | 15.7% | Long | +11.5% | +10.8% |
| December 31, 2024 | $24.37 | 8.2% | 23.9% | Long | −5.7% | −4.3% |
| September 30, 2024 | $34.42 | 10.1% | 30.6% | Long | −26.6% | +2.5% |
| June 30, 2024 | $41.96 | 12.5% | 32.4% | Long | −15.7% | +5.8% |
| March 31, 2024 | $38.46 | 12.0% | 33.4% | Long | +11.8% | +4.4% |
| December 31, 2023 | $43.87 | 14.0% | 29.2% | Long | −10.0% | +10.4% |
| September 30, 2023 | $28.73 | 10.4% | 23.0% | Long | +57.8% | +11.6% |
| June 30, 2023 | $25.65 | 9.6% | 19.2% | Long | +16.1% | −3.2% |
| March 31, 2023 | $19.94 | 8.3% | 15.0% | Long | +34.8% | +8.7% |
| December 31, 2022 | $18.95 | 8.0% | 11.2% | No position | +9.9% | +7.5% |
| September 30, 2022 | $13.57 | 6.4% | 10.2% | No position | +47.2% | +7.6% |
| June 30, 2022 | $15.20 | 6.5% | 7.7% | No position | −5.0% | −4.9% |
| March 31, 2022 | $14.49 | 6.3% | 8.3% | No position | +22.1% | −16.1% |
| December 31, 2021 | $12.69 | 5.9% | 10.5% | No position | +22.8% | −4.6% |
| September 30, 2021 | $12.41 | 5.8% | 8.9% | No position | +2.3% | +11.1% |
| June 30, 2021 | $14.12 | 6.8% | 9.6% | No position | −4.8% | +0.6% |
| March 31, 2021 | $13.13 | 6.4% | 7.8% | No position | +7.5% | +8.4% |
| December 31, 2020 | $12.19 | 6.3% | 3.2% | No position | +7.7% | +6.3% |
| September 30, 2020 | $8.01 | 5.0% | 7.5% | No position | +52.2% | +12.1% |
| June 30, 2020 | $7.74 | 5.0% | 6.9% | No position | +3.5% | +9.0% |
| March 31, 2020 | $8.71 | 5.4% | 2.1% | No position | −11.1% | +20.2% |
| December 31, 2019 | $15.48 | 7.8% | 2.6% | Short | −43.7% | −19.4% |
| September 30, 2019 | $10.36 | 6.2% | -2.6% | Short | +49.4% | +9.0% |
| June 30, 2019 | $9.02 | 5.8% | -5.4% | Short | +14.9% | +1.8% |
| March 31, 2019 | $6.42 | 4.8% | -4.1% | Short | +40.5% | +4.2% |
| December 31, 2018 | $5.83 | 4.5% | -3.2% | Short | +10.1% | +13.5% |
| September 30, 2018 | $7.97 | 5.3% | -3.6% | Short | −26.9% | −13.5% |
| June 30, 2018 | $7.64 | 5.1% | -2.1% | Short | +4.3% | +7.7% |
| March 31, 2018 | $7.49 | 5.0% | -1.6% | Short | +2.0% | +3.5% |
| December 31, 2017 | $8.22 | 5.3% | -1.2% | Short | −8.9% | −1.0% |
| September 30, 2017 | $6.82 | 4.8% | -0.7% | Short | +20.5% | +6.8% |
| June 30, 2017 | $8.18 | 5.2% | -0.1% | Short | −16.6% | +4.4% |
| March 31, 2017 | $10.53 | 6.0% | 1.7% | No position | −22.3% | +3.1% |
| December 31, 2016 | $8.21 | 5.3% | 7.0% | No position | +28.3% | +5.9% |
| September 30, 2016 | $6.00 | 4.5% | 12.3% | Long | +36.8% | +4.0% |
| June 30, 2016 | $7.05 | 4.9% | 13.9% | Long | −14.9% | +3.8% |
| March 31, 2016 | $9.40 | 5.8% | 12.9% | Long | −25.0% | +2.5% |
How the test works
At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from Dorian LPG LTD.'s quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.
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