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Navigator Holdings Ltd.: what the price is pricing in

The price implies cash-flow growth of -4.4% a year; our model expects 5.5%. The gap is too narrow for a position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.

No published rating for Navigator Holdings Ltd.: held for review: our cash-flow value ($44.85) was left out of our combined valuation (it is more than 3x away from the median of our other models), so it can't be the basis of a rating. The readings below run our models backwards for research and show how trading the gap would have done; they are not a valuation or a rating. The valuation page shows the models and their status.

What growth in cash flow is the price paying for?

The price implies cash-flow growth of -4.4% a year; our model expects 5.5%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position1212 long, 0 short, since March 31, 2017
Beat the S&P 5007 of 1258.3% of quarters held
Strategy against the index+42.2%cumulative; worst fall -18.7%
$10,000 became$52,245S&P 500 bought and held: $36,208

Over time

The growth in owner earnings (free cash flow after stock-based pay) that would justify the share price in our discounted-cash-flow model, against the growth the model itself assumes from the company's record.

-11%-4%3%10%17% 2017201920232025 $4.2$10.9$17.6$24.3 Long from 2017-06-30Long from 2017-09-30Long from 2020-03-31Long from 2023-03-31Long from 2023-06-30Long from 2024-03-31Long from 2024-09-30Long from 2025-03-31Long from 2025-06-30Long from 2025-09-30Long from 2026-03-31Long from 2026-06-30
Growth our model assumes Growth the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

$0$20.0k$40.0k 20172018201920202023202420252026 $52.2k$36.2k
StrategyS&P 500, buy and hold Hypothetical, before costs. The strategy holds the S&P 500 and only changes on a signal: it switches into NVGS in long quarters and adds a short of NVGS in short quarters. The gap between the lines is what the signal added or lost.

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 12 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 7, by +4.3% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

PositionsQuartersBeat the S&P 500Average vs S&P 500, a quarterTypical (median), a quarterA yearConfidence (t)Evidence
Longs 12 58.3% +4.3% +5.6% +12.5% 0.87 No reliable evidence
Shorts 0 — — — — — —
All positions 12 58.3% +4.3% +5.6% +12.5% 0.87 No reliable evidence

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (24)
FromPrice paidGrowth the price impliesGrowth our model assumesPositionNVGSS&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open) $23.18 -4.4% 5.5% No position −12.9% −0.8%
June 30, 2026 $18.63 -7.7% 5.5% Long +24.8% +2.4%
March 31, 2026 $19.33 -7.1% 5.5% Long −3.3% +15.1%
September 30, 2025 $15.49 -3.3% 7.3% Long +12.3% +2.7%
June 30, 2025 $14.15 -4.3% 7.3% Long +9.8% +8.1%
March 31, 2025 $13.31 -4.9% 7.3% Long +6.7% +10.8%
September 30, 2024 $16.07 7.0% 17.3% Long −4.2% +2.5%
June 30, 2024 $17.46 8.0% 17.3% No position −7.7% +5.8%
March 31, 2024 $15.35 6.5% 17.3% Long +14.4% +4.4%
September 30, 2023 $14.77 6.5% 16.4% No position −1.1% +11.6%
June 30, 2023 $13.01 5.0% 16.4% Long +13.9% −3.2%
March 31, 2023 $14.00 5.8% 16.4% Long −7.1% +8.7%
September 30, 2020 $8.36 -4.7% 2.0% No position +31.0% +12.1%
June 30, 2020 $6.43 -6.4% 2.0% No position +30.0% +9.0%
March 31, 2020 $4.46 -8.3% 2.0% Long +44.2% +20.2%
September 30, 2019 $10.68 -5.4% 2.0% No position +26.1% +9.0%
June 30, 2019 $9.36 -6.4% 2.0% No position +14.1% +1.8%
March 31, 2019 $11.00 -5.1% 2.0% No position −14.9% +4.2%
September 30, 2018 $12.10 -4.8% 2.0% No position −22.3% −13.5%
June 30, 2018 $12.65 -4.5% 2.0% No position −4.3% +7.7%
March 31, 2018 $11.75 -5.1% 2.0% No position +7.7% +3.5%
September 30, 2017 $11.10 -9.1% 2.0% Long −11.3% +6.8%
June 30, 2017 $8.30 -11.5% 2.0% Long +33.7% +4.4%
March 31, 2017 $13.75 -7.1% 2.0% No position −39.6% +3.1%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from Navigator Holdings Ltd.'s quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

Head to head: LPG vs NVGSNVGS vs PANL

More: Marine Transportation stocks compared, Industrials sector, rankings of US companies

Figures from Navigator Holdings Ltd.'s SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q). How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to Navigator Holdings Ltd.