Medicinova Inc is a US-listed company in the biotechnology industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Under review: every model's value for Medicinova Inc is far from the share price, which usually points to a data problem (a merger, a share-count change, a one-off) rather than a bargain or a bubble.
Under review: cash-flow, stock-pay or share-count figures missing or out of date. We'll show the comparison once resolved.
Medicinova Inc valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Medicinova has little or no product revenue yet; it used $9m of cash in the twelve months to June 2026. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades C. It passes 2 of our 2 financial-health checks.
Our model value for Medicinova is under review, so past values are not shown until it is resolved.
Source: 10-Q filed August 13, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Where it stands out: change in share count of 0.2% ranks 25 of 156 biotechnology companies we cover. Where it lags: free-cash-flow margin of -991.2% ranks 142 of 176 biotechnology companies we cover.
Current signal Results well ahead of expectations: Reported earnings per share beat the analysts' consensus estimate by 23% in the quarter to 2026-06-30, the 4th beat in the last four quarters.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
The inputs used by the models below have passed source checks. Individual model values are available below and in the interactive valuator. Their differences are shown explicitly; the platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld.
We value Medicinova Inc as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.8%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.86 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Price-to-sales vs peers Sales per share times peers' typical price-to-sales; used only when earnings are negative. | ~$0.0 ~$0.1–$0.2 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.01x) |
| Combined value Individual source-checked model scenarios are available. The platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld. | — | Combined value withheld. Review the individual models and their assumptions. |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Medicinova Inc with Biotechnology in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| At fiscal year end | 2021 | 2023 | 2025 | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share price | $2.68 | $1.50 | $1.31 | $1.44 |
| Market value | $130m | $74m | $64m | $71m |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | −$71m | −$51m | −$31m | −$25m |
| Enterprise value | $59m | $23m | $33m | $45m |
| Multiples | ||||
| Price / sales | 32.3x | 73.6x | 156.9x | 76.9x |
| Price / earnings | — | — | — | — |
| Price / free cash flow | — | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | — | — | — | — |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
Next results: November 12, 2026, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $50000 and EPS of −$0.06 (range −$0.06 to −$0.06) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | −$0.26 | −7% | $730000 | +78% |
| Next | −$0.52 | −101% | $333330 | −54% |
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −1.3% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 0 analysts raised Medicinova Inc's forecast and 1 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | −$0.26 | −$0.43 |
| 60 days ago | −$0.26 | −$0.43 |
| 30 days ago | −$0.28 | −$0.45 |
| 7 days ago | −$0.26 | −$0.52 |
| Now | −$0.26 | −$0.52 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | −$0.07 | −$0.05 | +23.1% |
| Mar 2026 | −$0.07 | −$0.05 | +23.1% |
| Dec 2025 | −$0.10 | −$0.05 | +47.4% |
| Sept 2025 | −$0.12 | −$0.06 | +50.0% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months −13.3%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $4m | $920481 | −77.2% |
| P/S multiple | 20.2x | 76.9x | +281.3% |
| Share count | 49m | 49m | −0.2% |
Biggest factor: revenue. Loss-making at one end, so the split uses price/sales.
Last 3 years −24.2%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $4m | $920481 | −77.2% |
| P/S multiple | 23.1x | 76.9x | +233.1% |
| Share count | 49m | 49m | −0.2% |
Biggest factor: revenue. Loss-making at one end, so the split uses price/sales.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| MNOV | −49% | −24% | −27% | +40% | −38% | +10% |
| Industry peers (median) | −35% | −57% | −17% | −29% | −5% | −27% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| MNOV | 25% | 33% | 42% | 58% | 25% | 55% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| MNOV | −70% | −37% | −47% | −32% | −45% | −61% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 2, 2015: 92% from March 13, 2018 to August 7, 2024. Getting back needed a 1131% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 20, 2026 | −3.9% | −0.3% | −6.5% | −6.5% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY12 Q1 | $191K |
| FY12 Q2 | $685K |
| FY12 Q3 | $769K |
| FY12 Q4 | $803K |
| FY13 Q1 | $615K |
| FY13 Q2 | $121.3K |
| FY13 Q3 | $37.3K |
| FY13 Q4 | $6M |
| FY14 Q1 | $6M |
| FY21 Q4 | $4M |
| FY26 Q1 | $596.6K |
| FY26 Q2 | $920.5K |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY13 Q1 | 222.0% |
| FY13 Q2 | -82.3% |
| FY13 Q3 | -95.2% |
| FY13 Q4 | 647.6% |
| FY14 Q1 | 875.7% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY12 Q1 | -7856.2% |
| FY12 Q2 | -1981.2% |
| FY12 Q3 | -1563.9% |
| FY12 Q4 | -1363.1% |
| FY13 Q1 | -1543.0% |
| FY13 Q2 | -8238.2% |
| FY13 Q3 | -26489.0% |
| FY13 Q4 | -67.0% |
| FY14 Q1 | -66.1% |
| FY21 Q4 | -253.0% |
| FY26 Q1 | -2164.8% |
| FY26 Q2 | -1287.4% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY12 Q2 | -1734.4% |
| FY12 Q3 | -1392.9% |
| FY12 Q4 | -1487.9% |
| FY13 Q1 | -1810.5% |
| FY13 Q2 | -7744.6% |
| FY13 Q3 | -23729.7% |
| FY13 Q4 | -178.0% |
| FY14 Q1 | -55.0% |
| FY26 Q1 | -1594.0% |
| FY26 Q2 | -991.2% |
| Fiscal year | 2012 Dec 2012 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||
| Revenue | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| EBITDA | −11 | −10 | −10 | −13 | −12 |
| Operating income | −11 | −10 | −10 | −13 | −12 |
| Net income | −11 | −10 | −9 | −12 | −11 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.22 | −$0.21 | −$0.17 | −$0.24 | −$0.22 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||
| Revenue | — | +403.1% | −75.2% | −59.0% | — |
| Margins | |||||
| EBITDA margin | <−999% | −252.4% | −988.0% | <−999% | <−999% |
| Operating margin | <−999% | −253.0% | −990.0% | <−999% | <−999% |
| Net margin | <−999% | −251.0% | −857.2% | <−999% | <−999% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | <−999% | −233.1% | −745.2% | <−999% | −991.2% |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Cash from operations | −12 | −9 | −7 | −10 | −9 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −12 | −9 | −7 | −10 | −9 |
| Stock-based pay | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −13 | −11 | −8 | −11 | −10 |
| Balance sheet | |||||
| Cash | 4 | 71 | 51 | 31 | 25 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −4 | −71 | −51 | −31 | −25 |
| Diluted shares | 50m | 49m | 49m | 49m | 49m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||
| Buybacks | −0 | — | — | — | — |
| Total returned | −0 | — | — | — | — |
| Quarter | 2021 Q4 Dec 2021 | 2023 Q3 Sept 2023 | 2023 Q4 Dec 2023 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 0 | 1,000 | 0 | 135 | 123 | 152 | 187 | 458 |
| EBITDA | −2,096 | −1,141 | −2,485 | −3,602 | −3,376 | −3,088 | −2,832 | −2,536 |
| Operating income | −2,103 | −1,147 | −2,490 | −3,607 | −3,381 | −3,092 | −2,836 | −2,541 |
| Net income | −2,083 | −723 | −2,059 | −3,281 | −3,050 | −2,802 | −2,586 | −2,314 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.04 | −$0.01 | −$0.04 | −$0.07 | −$0.06 | −$0.05 | −$0.05 | −$0.05 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | +240.6% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| EBITDA margin | — | −114.1% | — | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | −553.2% |
| Operating margin | — | −114.7% | — | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | −554.3% |
| Net margin | — | −72.3% | — | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | −504.8% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | — | −137.4% | — | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | −418.8% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | −3,639 | −1,372 | −499 | −2,306 | −1,703 | −2,017 | −3,470 | −1,920 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 3 | −0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −3,639 | −1,374 | −499 | −2,306 | −1,706 | −2,017 | −3,481 | −1,920 |
| Stock-based pay | −757 | 219 | −237 | 205 | 158 | 181 | 408 | 177 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −2,882 | −1,593 | −262 | −2,511 | −1,864 | −2,197 | −3,889 | −2,097 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | MNOV | STTK | LGVN | DARE | RNAC | ABSI | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $920481 | $1m | $1m | $1m | $1m | $2m | $56m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 875.7% | −66.6% | −42.7% | >999% | 44.0% | −62.3% | 12.6% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 5.2% | 10.4% | — | −68.8% | −43.3% | 13.7% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 240.6% | −66.6% | −9.2% | 499.6% | −100.0% | −46.4% | 10.2% |
| Gross margin | 100.0% | — | 69.8% | — | — | — | 82.9% |
| Operating margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | −813.4% | <−999% | <−999% | −189.4% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | −905.8% | <−999% | <−999% | >999% | <−999% | <−999% | −363.5% |
| Net margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | −804.4% | <−999% | <−999% | −169.8% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | −989.7% | <−999% | <−999% | −826.8% | <−999% | <−999% | −168.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −991.2% | <−999% | <−999% | −860.6% | <−999% | <−999% | −162.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | >999% | <−999% | <−999% | −310.0% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 100.3% | 853.2% | 132.8% | 110.0% | 625.6% | >999% | 20.0% |
| Change in share count | 0.2% | 15.3% | — | 62.5% | 143.3% | 26.0% | 8.2% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating margin Profitability | -1287.4% | -189.4% | 141 of 175 |
| Net margin Profitability | -1168.2% | -157.3% | 144 of 180 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | -991.2% | -145.4% | 142 of 176 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 100.3% | 19.2% | 134 of 179 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 0.2% | 7.9% | 25 of 156 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essex Woodlands Management, Inc. | $1.5M | 1.1M | 21.4% | 0.0% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $992,760 | 752K | 14.5% | ▲ 6.5% |
| Citigroup Inc | $839,144 | 636K | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $803,949 | 609K | 11.8% | ▼ 0.3% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $712,087 | 539K | 10.4% | ▼ 0.8% |
| Vanguard Fiduciary Trust Co | $373,043 | 283K | 5.5% | ▲ 0.7% |
| UBS Group AG | $293,304 | 222K | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| Renaissance Technologies LLC | $271,128 | 205K | 4.0% | ▲ 8.2% |
| State Street Corp | $255,681 | 194K | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust Corp | $189,638 | 144K | 2.8% | ▲ 7.9% |
| Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | $103,325 | 78K | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | $94,388 | 72K | 1.4% | 0.0% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Medicinova Inc's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3D Opportunity Master Fund 10% owner | September 25, 2026 | Sell | 640,000 | $2.70 | $1.7M |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around June 10, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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