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Merck & Co.: what the price is pricing in

The price implies cash-flow growth of 10.0% a year; our model expects 4.6%. The gap is too narrow for a position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.

What growth in cash flow is the price paying for?

The price implies cash-flow growth of 10.0% a year; our model expects 4.6%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position00 long, 0 short, since June 30, 2019
Beat the S&P 500—no position yet
Strategy against the index0.0%cumulative; worst fall 0.0%
$10,000 became$28,902S&P 500 bought and held: $28,902

Over time

The growth in owner earnings (free cash flow after stock-based pay) that would justify the share price in our discounted-cash-flow model, against the growth the model itself assumes from the company's record.

2%6%10%14%18% 2019202120232025 $69.7$97.4$125$153
Growth our model assumes Growth the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

$0$10.0k$20.0k$30.0k 20192020202120222023202420252026 $28.9k$28.9k
StrategyS&P 500, buy and hold Hypothetical, before costs. The strategy holds the S&P 500 and only changes on a signal: it switches into MRK in long quarters and adds a short of MRK in short quarters. The gap between the lines is what the signal added or lost.

Skill or luck?

In plain English: The gap has not been wide enough for a position in Merck & Co. since 2010, so there is no record to judge.

PositionsQuartersBeat the S&P 500Average vs S&P 500, a quarterTypical (median), a quarterA yearConfidence (t)Evidence
Longs 0 — — — — — —
Shorts 0 — — — — — —
All positions 0 — — — — — —

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (30)
FromPrice paidGrowth the price impliesGrowth our model assumesPositionMRKS&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open) $145.31 10.0% 4.6% No position +2.3% −0.8%
June 30, 2026 $128.50 8.7% 3.6% No position +13.8% +2.4%
March 31, 2026 $120.29 8.5% 2.2% No position +7.6% +15.1%
December 31, 2025 $105.26 5.2% 2.3% No position +15.1% −4.4%
September 30, 2025 $83.93 2.9% 2.7% No position +26.5% +2.7%
June 30, 2025 $79.16 1.6% 5.0% No position +7.1% +8.1%
March 31, 2025 $89.76 2.2% 8.2% No position −10.9% +10.8%
December 31, 2024 $99.48 3.4% 8.8% No position −9.0% −4.3%
September 30, 2024 $113.56 7.7% 9.8% No position −11.7% +2.5%
June 30, 2024 $123.80 11.2% 9.9% No position −7.7% +5.8%
March 31, 2024 $131.95 12.9% 6.5% No position −5.6% +4.4%
December 31, 2023 $109.02 7.8% 7.5% No position +21.8% +10.4%
September 30, 2023 $102.95 10.1% 8.7% No position +6.7% +11.6%
June 30, 2023 $115.39 10.9% 10.0% No position −10.2% −3.2%
March 31, 2023 $106.39 9.0% 18.3% No position +9.2% +8.7%
December 31, 2022 $110.95 8.4% 12.1% No position −3.4% +7.5%
September 30, 2022 $86.12 5.3% 12.8% No position +29.7% +7.6%
June 30, 2022 $91.17 7.5% 12.2% No position −4.8% −4.9%
March 31, 2022 $82.05 9.1% 8.7% No position +12.0% −16.1%
December 31, 2021 $76.64 8.8% 10.5% No position +8.0% −4.6%
September 30, 2021 $75.11 10.3% 8.9% No position +3.0% +11.1%
June 30, 2021 $77.77 10.3% 2.3% No position −2.5% +0.6%
March 31, 2021 $77.09 9.4% 10.7% No position +6.6% +8.4%
December 31, 2020 $81.80 12.6% 4.0% No position −4.9% +6.3%
September 30, 2020 $82.95 13.6% 4.0% No position −0.6% +12.1%
June 30, 2020 $77.33 11.5% 2.0% No position +8.1% +9.0%
March 31, 2020 $76.94 11.7% 2.0% No position +1.3% +20.2%
December 31, 2019 $90.95 13.2% 10.2% No position −14.7% −19.4%
September 30, 2019 $84.18 13.6% 7.5% No position +8.8% +9.0%
June 30, 2019 $83.85 14.4% 5.8% No position +1.1% +1.8%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from Merck & Co.'s quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

Head to head: MRK vs PFEAZN vs MRKLLY vs MRK

More: Pharmaceuticals stocks compared, Health Care sector, rankings of US companies

Figures from Merck & Co.'s SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved October 20, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to Merck & Co.