Paccar: what the price is pricing in

The price implies cash-flow growth of 3.4% a year; our model expects 4.0%. The gap is too narrow for a position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.

No published rating for Paccar: consolidated figures include PACCAR Financial, a finance arm whose borrowing funds customer loans, so a single cash-flow value of the group is not meaningful; not rated until we value the parts separately. The readings below run our models backwards for research and show how trading the gap would have done; they are not a valuation or a rating. The valuation page shows the models and their status.

What growth in cash flow is the price paying for?

The price implies cash-flow growth of 3.4% a year; our model expects 4.0%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position3131 long, 0 short, since June 30, 2011

Beat the S&P 50019 of 3161.3% of quarters held

Strategy against the index−9.8%cumulative; worst fall -31.3%

$10,000 became$68,992S&P 500 bought and held: $83,234

Over time

The growth in owner earnings (free cash flow after stock-based pay) that would justify the share price in our discounted-cash-flow model, against the growth the model itself assumes from the company's record.

Growth our model assumes Growth the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

StrategyS&P 500, buy and hold Hypothetical, before costs. The strategy holds the S&P 500 and only changes on a signal: it switches into PCAR in long quarters and adds a short of PCAR in short quarters. The gap between the lines is what the signal added or lost.

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 31 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 19, by +0.2% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	31	61.3%	+0.2%	+1.8%	−1.3%	0.11	No reliable evidence
Shorts	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
All positions	31	61.3%	+0.2%	+1.8%	−1.3%	0.11	No reliable evidence

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (52)

From	Price paid	Growth the price implies	Growth our model assumes	Position	PCAR	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$109.81	3.4%	4.0%	No position	−5.7%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$120.12	4.8%	4.0%	No position	−8.3%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$115.50	4.5%	4.0%	No position	+4.3%	+15.1%
December 31, 2025	$109.51	2.8%	4.0%	No position	+5.7%	−4.4%
September 30, 2025	$98.32	1.5%	4.0%	No position	+13.2%	+2.7%
June 30, 2025	$95.06	0.3%	4.0%	No position	+3.8%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$97.37	0.6%	5.1%	No position	−2.0%	+10.8%
December 31, 2024	$104.02	1.5%	8.9%	No position	−6.1%	−4.3%
September 30, 2024	$98.68	1.7%	12.6%	Long	+8.7%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$102.94	1.9%	18.5%	Long	−3.8%	+5.8%
March 31, 2024	$123.89	6.5%	20.0%	Long	−16.7%	+4.4%
December 31, 2023	$97.65	2.8%	20.0%	Long	+27.2%	+10.4%
September 30, 2023	$85.02	1.5%	20.0%	Long	+19.1%	+11.6%
June 30, 2023	$83.65	0.9%	12.0%	Long	+2.0%	−3.2%
March 31, 2023	$73.20	-0.3%	9.6%	No position	+14.7%	+8.7%
June 30, 2021	$89.25	0.4%	4.0%	No position	−11.2%	+0.6%
March 31, 2021	$92.92	1.7%	4.0%	No position	−3.6%	+8.4%
December 31, 2020	$86.28	-0.5%	4.0%	No position	+8.1%	+6.3%
September 30, 2020	$85.28	-1.4%	4.0%	No position	+2.4%	+12.1%
June 30, 2020	$74.85	-5.1%	6.2%	Long	+14.3%	+9.0%
March 31, 2020	$61.13	-13.1%	11.8%	Long	+23.0%	+20.2%
June 30, 2019	$71.66	-8.2%	13.0%	Long	−1.8%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$68.14	-10.8%	13.9%	Long	+5.7%	+4.2%
December 31, 2018	$57.14	-13.0%	10.5%	Long	+19.8%	+13.5%
September 30, 2018	$68.19	-8.7%	10.6%	Long	−12.8%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$61.96	-10.1%	9.3%	Long	+10.5%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$66.17	-7.8%	7.5%	Long	−6.0%	+3.5%
June 30, 2017	$66.04	-4.9%	2.0%	No position	+10.0%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$67.20	-3.9%	4.0%	No position	−1.3%	+3.1%
December 31, 2016	$63.90	-4.5%	4.0%	No position	+5.5%	+5.9%
September 30, 2016	$58.78	-8.7%	4.0%	Long	+10.1%	+4.0%
June 30, 2016	$51.87	-11.1%	2.0%	Long	+13.8%	+3.8%
March 31, 2016	$54.69	-9.4%	2.3%	Long	−4.8%	+2.5%
December 31, 2015	$47.40	-12.5%	5.6%	Long	+15.9%	+1.3%
September 30, 2015	$52.17	-10.1%	7.3%	Long	−6.0%	+7.0%
June 30, 2015	$63.81	-4.2%	6.8%	Long	−17.9%	−6.4%
March 31, 2015	$63.14	-3.9%	8.0%	Long	+1.4%	+0.2%
December 31, 2014	$68.01	-0.5%	10.1%	Long	−6.8%	+0.9%
September 30, 2014	$56.88	-1.5%	11.4%	Long	+21.8%	+4.9%
June 30, 2014	$62.83	1.3%	12.1%	Long	−9.2%	+1.1%
March 31, 2014	$67.44	0.6%	7.7%	No position	−6.5%	+5.2%
December 31, 2013	$59.17	0.0%	6.2%	No position	+14.4%	+1.7%
September 30, 2013	$55.66	-0.3%	5.2%	No position	+8.4%	+10.5%
June 30, 2013	$53.66	-0.9%	6.9%	No position	+4.1%	+5.2%
March 31, 2013	$50.56	-4.9%	4.3%	No position	+6.5%	+2.9%
December 31, 2012	$45.21	-8.2%	20.0%	Long	+12.3%	+10.5%
September 30, 2012	$40.02	-11.5%	13.0%	Long	+15.5%	−0.4%
June 30, 2012	$39.19	-13.4%	13.0%	Long	+2.6%	+6.3%
March 31, 2012	$46.83	-11.6%	13.0%	Long	−15.9%	−2.8%
December 31, 2011	$37.47	-15.0%	13.0%	Long	+25.5%	+12.7%
September 30, 2011	$33.82	-15.9%	13.0%	Long	+13.4%	+11.6%
June 30, 2011	$51.09	-6.9%	20.0%	Long	−33.5%	−13.8%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

What growth in earnings is the price paying for?

The price implies earnings growth of 7.8% a year; our model expects 4.0%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position2624 long, 2 short, since June 30, 2011

Beat the S&P 50018 of 2669.2% of quarters held

Strategy against the index+44.7%cumulative; worst fall -28.6%

$10,000 became$116,145S&P 500 bought and held: $83,234

Over time

The earnings growth the price-to-earnings ratio requires, against the growth our model assumes. Net income is already after interest, so it is valued at the return shareholders require, plus spare cash (none for banks and insurers, whose cash is funded by deposits and policies), with no debt subtracted.

Growth our model assumes Growth the P/E implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 26 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 18, by +1.9% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	24	66.7%	+1.8%	+2.3%	+5.5%	0.90	No reliable evidence
Shorts	2	100.0%	+2.4%	+2.4%	+9.8%	—	Too few quarters
All positions	26	69.2%	+1.9%	+2.3%	+5.8%	1.00	No reliable evidence

Every quarter (52)

From	Price paid	Growth the P/E implies	Growth our model assumes	Position	PCAR	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$109.81	7.8%	4.0%	No position	−5.7%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$120.12	9.6%	4.0%	No position	−8.3%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$115.50	9.6%	4.0%	No position	+4.3%	+15.1%
December 31, 2025	$109.51	6.5%	4.0%	No position	+5.7%	−4.4%
September 30, 2025	$98.32	2.3%	4.0%	No position	+13.2%	+2.7%
June 30, 2025	$95.06	-0.4%	4.0%	No position	+3.8%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$97.37	-3.1%	5.1%	No position	−2.0%	+10.8%
December 31, 2024	$104.02	-4.1%	8.9%	Long	−6.1%	−4.3%
September 30, 2024	$98.68	-5.9%	12.6%	Long	+8.7%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$102.94	-5.5%	18.5%	Long	−3.8%	+5.8%
March 31, 2024	$123.89	-0.8%	20.0%	Long	−16.7%	+4.4%
December 31, 2023	$97.65	-2.9%	20.0%	Long	+27.2%	+10.4%
September 30, 2023	$85.02	-3.3%	20.0%	Long	+19.1%	+11.6%
June 30, 2023	$83.65	-1.0%	12.0%	Long	+2.0%	−3.2%
March 31, 2023	$73.20	-2.6%	9.6%	Long	+14.7%	+8.7%
June 30, 2021	$89.25	6.9%	4.0%	No position	−11.2%	+0.6%
March 31, 2021	$92.92	9.1%	4.0%	No position	−3.6%	+8.4%
December 31, 2020	$86.28	6.2%	4.0%	No position	+8.1%	+6.3%
September 30, 2020	$85.28	3.4%	4.0%	No position	+2.4%	+12.1%
June 30, 2020	$74.85	-3.2%	6.2%	No position	+14.3%	+9.0%
March 31, 2020	$61.13	-11.5%	11.8%	Long	+23.0%	+20.2%
June 30, 2019	$71.66	-7.3%	13.0%	Long	−1.8%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$68.14	-7.8%	13.9%	Long	+5.7%	+4.2%
December 31, 2018	$57.14	-11.0%	10.5%	Long	+19.8%	+13.5%
September 30, 2018	$68.19	-6.0%	10.6%	Long	−12.8%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$61.96	-6.1%	9.3%	Long	+10.5%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$66.17	-2.8%	7.5%	Long	−6.0%	+3.5%
June 30, 2017	$66.04	0.3%	2.0%	No position	+10.0%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$67.20	18.4%	4.0%	Short	−1.3%	+3.1%
December 31, 2016	$63.90	15.6%	4.0%	Short	+5.5%	+5.9%
September 30, 2016	$58.78	11.2%	4.0%	No position	+10.1%	+4.0%
June 30, 2016	$51.87	9.8%	2.0%	No position	+13.8%	+3.8%
March 31, 2016	$54.69	-5.4%	2.3%	No position	−4.8%	+2.5%
December 31, 2015	$47.40	-8.6%	5.6%	Long	+15.9%	+1.3%
September 30, 2015	$52.17	-6.0%	7.3%	Long	−6.0%	+7.0%
June 30, 2015	$63.81	-0.4%	6.8%	No position	−17.9%	−6.4%
March 31, 2015	$63.14	-0.5%	8.0%	No position	+1.4%	+0.2%
December 31, 2014	$68.01	2.8%	10.1%	No position	−6.8%	+0.9%
September 30, 2014	$56.88	0.6%	11.4%	Long	+21.8%	+4.9%
June 30, 2014	$62.83	2.9%	12.1%	No position	−9.2%	+1.1%
March 31, 2014	$67.44	3.4%	7.7%	No position	−6.5%	+5.2%
December 31, 2013	$59.17	3.1%	6.2%	No position	+14.4%	+1.7%
September 30, 2013	$55.66	3.5%	5.2%	No position	+8.4%	+10.5%
June 30, 2013	$53.66	2.8%	6.9%	No position	+4.1%	+5.2%
March 31, 2013	$50.56	-1.0%	4.3%	No position	+6.5%	+2.9%
December 31, 2012	$45.21	-3.5%	20.0%	Long	+12.3%	+10.5%
September 30, 2012	$40.02	-6.4%	13.0%	Long	+15.5%	−0.4%
June 30, 2012	$39.19	-6.2%	13.0%	Long	+2.6%	+6.3%
March 31, 2012	$46.83	-0.8%	13.0%	Long	−15.9%	−2.8%
December 31, 2011	$37.47	-1.8%	13.0%	Long	+25.5%	+12.7%
September 30, 2011	$33.82	-0.2%	13.0%	Long	+13.4%	+11.6%
June 30, 2011	$51.09	12.0%	20.0%	No position	−33.5%	−13.8%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

Is the price-to-earnings ratio cheap or dear for the growth delivered?

No current reading. The latest is from December 31, 2023: the figures this lens needs have not been filed recently enough (or no longer apply), so there is no position this quarter.

Quarters with a position99 long, 0 short, since March 31, 2013

Beat the S&P 5004 of 944.4% of quarters held

Strategy against the index+8.3%cumulative; worst fall -23.6%

$10,000 became$23,983S&P 500 bought and held: $22,428

Over time

The P/E divided by the earnings-per-share growth delivered over three years. Under 0.75 the market pays little for the growth (long); over 3 it pays a lot (short).

EPS growth, 3 years (%) Price-to-earnings ratio (x) Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 9 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 4, by +1.3% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	9	44.4%	+1.3%	−1.1%	+3.6%	0.40	No reliable evidence
Shorts	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
All positions	9	44.4%	+1.3%	−1.1%	+3.6%	0.40	No reliable evidence

Every quarter (24)

From	Price paid	Price-to-earnings ratio (x)	EPS growth, 3 years (%)	Position	PCAR	S&P 500
December 31, 2023	$97.65	12.5x	42.0%	Long	+27.2%	+10.4%
September 30, 2023	$85.02	12.2x	30.1%	Long	+19.1%	+11.6%
June 30, 2023	$83.65	13.9x	13.9%	No position	+2.0%	−3.2%
March 31, 2023	$73.20	12.7x	7.9%	No position	+14.7%	+8.7%
June 30, 2019	$71.66	10.9x	54.6%	Long	−1.8%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$68.14	10.9x	11.4%	No position	+5.7%	+4.2%
December 31, 2018	$57.14	9.1x	10.5%	No position	+19.8%	+13.5%
September 30, 2018	$68.19	11.7x	9.4%	No position	−12.8%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$61.96	11.7x	9.0%	No position	+10.5%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$66.17	14.0x	7.5%	No position	−6.0%	+3.5%
June 30, 2017	$66.04	16.3x	5.9%	No position	+10.0%	+4.4%
March 31, 2016	$54.69	12.1x	13.0%	No position	−4.8%	+2.5%
December 31, 2015	$47.40	10.2x	11.8%	No position	+15.9%	+1.3%
September 30, 2015	$52.17	11.7x	9.2%	No position	−6.0%	+7.0%
June 30, 2015	$63.81	15.5x	8.1%	No position	−17.9%	−6.4%
March 31, 2015	$63.14	16.5x	10.1%	No position	+1.4%	+0.2%
December 31, 2014	$68.01	18.7x	14.8%	No position	−6.8%	+0.9%
September 30, 2014	$56.88	16.4x	20.8%	No position	+21.8%	+4.9%
June 30, 2014	$62.83	18.5x	28.9%	Long	−9.2%	+1.1%
March 31, 2014	$67.44	20.5x	38.2%	Long	−6.5%	+5.2%
December 31, 2013	$59.17	19.3x	49.9%	Long	+14.4%	+1.7%
September 30, 2013	$55.66	19.5x	66.4%	Long	+8.4%	+10.5%
June 30, 2013	$53.66	18.7x	89.7%	Long	+4.1%	+5.2%
March 31, 2013	$50.56	16.1x	116.8%	Long	+6.5%	+2.9%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

What profit margin is the price paying for?

The price implies an owner-earnings margin of 11.2%; the company has kept 11.6%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What the company delivered

Quarters with a position2222 long, 0 short, since June 30, 2011

Beat the S&P 50014 of 2263.6% of quarters held

Strategy against the index+12.1%cumulative; worst fall -22.8%

$10,000 became$86,301S&P 500 bought and held: $83,234

Over time

The owner-earnings margin (free cash flow after stock pay, as a share of revenue) the price requires at our model's growth, against the margin the company has delivered over three years.

Margin delivered Margin the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 22 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 14, by +1.0% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	22	63.6%	+1.0%	+1.8%	+2.1%	0.47	No reliable evidence
Shorts	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
All positions	22	63.6%	+1.0%	+1.8%	+2.1%	0.47	No reliable evidence

Every quarter (52)

From	Price paid	Margin the price implies	Margin delivered	Position	PCAR	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$109.81	11.2%	11.6%	No position	−5.7%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$120.12	12.3%	11.7%	No position	−8.3%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$115.50	11.5%	11.2%	No position	+4.3%	+15.1%
December 31, 2025	$109.51	10.5%	11.2%	No position	+5.7%	−4.4%
September 30, 2025	$98.32	9.0%	10.4%	No position	+13.2%	+2.7%
June 30, 2025	$95.06	8.3%	10.3%	No position	+3.8%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$97.37	7.7%	10.0%	No position	−2.0%	+10.8%
December 31, 2024	$104.02	6.4%	9.7%	No position	−6.1%	−4.3%
September 30, 2024	$98.68	4.9%	9.0%	No position	+8.7%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$102.94	3.7%	9.3%	Long	−3.8%	+5.8%
March 31, 2024	$123.89	4.1%	8.7%	No position	−16.7%	+4.4%
December 31, 2023	$97.65	3.3%	8.6%	Long	+27.2%	+10.4%
September 30, 2023	$85.02	3.0%	8.5%	Long	+19.1%	+11.6%
June 30, 2023	$83.65	4.9%	9.2%	No position	+2.0%	−3.2%
March 31, 2023	$73.20	5.2%	9.2%	No position	+14.7%	+8.7%
June 30, 2021	$89.25	8.6%	10.6%	No position	−11.2%	+0.6%
March 31, 2021	$92.92	9.3%	10.6%	No position	−3.6%	+8.4%
December 31, 2020	$86.28	8.4%	10.8%	No position	+8.1%	+6.3%
September 30, 2020	$85.28	7.7%	10.5%	No position	+2.4%	+12.1%
June 30, 2020	$74.85	5.1%	9.8%	No position	+14.3%	+9.0%
March 31, 2020	$61.13	2.5%	10.3%	Long	+23.0%	+20.2%
June 30, 2019	$71.66	3.0%	10.1%	Long	−1.8%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$68.14	2.7%	11.2%	Long	+5.7%	+4.2%
December 31, 2018	$57.14	2.8%	11.0%	Long	+19.8%	+13.5%
September 30, 2018	$68.19	3.6%	11.1%	Long	−12.8%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$61.96	3.7%	11.4%	Long	+10.5%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$66.17	4.8%	11.6%	Long	−6.0%	+3.5%
June 30, 2017	$66.04	7.7%	11.4%	No position	+10.0%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$67.20	6.9%	10.8%	No position	−1.3%	+3.1%
December 31, 2016	$63.90	6.4%	10.5%	No position	+5.5%	+5.9%
September 30, 2016	$58.78	5.6%	11.7%	Long	+10.1%	+4.0%
June 30, 2016	$51.87	5.3%	11.5%	Long	+13.8%	+3.8%
March 31, 2016	$54.69	5.4%	10.7%	Long	−4.8%	+2.5%
December 31, 2015	$47.40	3.6%	10.4%	Long	+15.9%	+1.3%
September 30, 2015	$52.17	3.7%	10.2%	Long	−6.0%	+7.0%
June 30, 2015	$63.81	5.0%	9.4%	No position	−17.9%	−6.4%
March 31, 2015	$63.14	4.4%	8.8%	No position	+1.4%	+0.2%
December 31, 2014	$68.01	4.7%	8.5%	No position	−6.8%	+0.9%
September 30, 2014	$56.88	3.7%	7.8%	No position	+21.8%	+4.9%
June 30, 2014	$62.83	4.1%	7.5%	No position	−9.2%	+1.1%
March 31, 2014	$67.44	5.3%	8.1%	No position	−6.5%	+5.2%
December 31, 2013	$59.17	5.5%	7.9%	No position	+14.4%	+1.7%
September 30, 2013	$55.66	5.8%	7.9%	No position	+8.4%	+10.5%
June 30, 2013	$53.66	5.0%	7.9%	No position	+4.1%	+5.2%
March 31, 2013	$50.56	4.9%	8.2%	No position	+6.5%	+2.9%
December 31, 2012	$45.21	1.8%	8.7%	Long	+12.3%	+10.5%
September 30, 2012	$40.02	2.3%	9.2%	Long	+15.5%	−0.4%
June 30, 2012	$39.19	2.2%	10.2%	Long	+2.6%	+6.3%
March 31, 2012	$46.83	3.0%	12.2%	Long	−15.9%	−2.8%
December 31, 2011	$37.47	2.6%	13.1%	Long	+25.5%	+12.7%
September 30, 2011	$33.82	2.7%	14.2%	Long	+13.4%	+11.6%
June 30, 2011	$51.09	3.3%	15.3%	Long	−33.5%	−13.8%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

What return on equity is the price paying for?

The price implies a return on equity of 19.6%; the company earned 12.8%.

Market more optimistic than our model: short this quarter

What the price implies What the company delivered

Quarters with a position2412 long, 12 short, since June 30, 2011

Beat the S&P 50017 of 2470.8% of quarters held

Strategy against the index+141.1%cumulative; worst fall -15.6%

$10,000 became$193,967S&P 500 bought and held: $83,234

Over time

The return on equity that justifies the price-to-book ratio, (P/B)(r − g) + g with an 8.5% required return and 2.5% long-run growth, against the return the company delivered last year.

Return on equity delivered Return on equity the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 24 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 17, by +4.1% a quarter on average. That stands out clearly from chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	12	75.0%	+3.7%	+2.9%	+14.5%	1.74	Some evidence
Shorts	12	66.7%	+4.4%	+7.6%	+17.1%	1.57	Some evidence
All positions	24	70.8%	+4.1%	+3.6%	+15.8%	2.35	Strong evidence

Every quarter (52)

From	Price paid	Return on equity the price implies	Return on equity delivered	Position	PCAR	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$109.81	19.6%	12.8%	Short	−5.7%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$120.12	21.7%	13.1%	Short	−8.3%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$115.50	21.4%	12.9%	Short	+4.3%	+15.1%
December 31, 2025	$109.51	20.4%	14.2%	Short	+5.7%	−4.4%
September 30, 2025	$98.32	18.9%	16.8%	No position	+13.2%	+2.7%
June 30, 2025	$95.06	19.2%	19.9%	No position	+3.8%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$97.37	20.1%	24.9%	No position	−2.0%	+10.8%
December 31, 2024	$104.02	20.1%	27.1%	Long	−6.1%	−4.3%
September 30, 2024	$98.68	20.1%	30.3%	Long	+8.7%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$102.94	21.8%	32.9%	Long	−3.8%	+5.8%
March 31, 2024	$123.89	27.1%	31.7%	No position	−16.7%	+4.4%
December 31, 2023	$97.65	21.7%	28.4%	Long	+27.2%	+10.4%
September 30, 2023	$85.02	20.3%	26.4%	Long	+19.1%	+11.6%
June 30, 2023	$83.65	21.5%	24.2%	No position	+2.0%	−3.2%
March 31, 2023	$73.20	20.0%	24.3%	No position	+14.7%	+8.7%
June 30, 2021	$89.25	19.6%	13.8%	Short	−11.2%	+0.6%
March 31, 2021	$92.92	20.9%	12.8%	Short	−3.6%	+8.4%
December 31, 2020	$86.28	20.2%	14.1%	Short	+8.1%	+6.3%
September 30, 2020	$85.28	20.6%	17.0%	No position	+2.4%	+12.1%
June 30, 2020	$74.85	18.7%	22.6%	No position	+14.3%	+9.0%
March 31, 2020	$61.13	15.6%	26.1%	Long	+23.0%	+20.2%
June 30, 2019	$71.66	19.1%	26.2%	Long	−1.8%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$68.14	19.2%	26.4%	Long	+5.7%	+4.2%
December 31, 2018	$57.14	15.6%	25.8%	Long	+19.8%	+13.5%
September 30, 2018	$68.19	18.9%	25.4%	Long	−12.8%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$61.96	17.8%	24.0%	Long	+10.5%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$66.17	19.9%	22.6%	No position	−6.0%	+3.5%
June 30, 2017	$66.04	22.2%	21.3%	No position	+10.0%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$67.20	23.4%	7.6%	Short	−1.3%	+3.1%
December 31, 2016	$63.90	21.8%	8.1%	Short	+5.5%	+5.9%
September 30, 2016	$58.78	21.0%	9.6%	Short	+10.1%	+4.0%
June 30, 2016	$51.87	19.7%	9.7%	Short	+13.8%	+3.8%
March 31, 2016	$54.69	19.2%	23.4%	No position	−4.8%	+2.5%
December 31, 2015	$47.40	16.3%	22.8%	Long	+15.9%	+1.3%
September 30, 2015	$52.17	17.9%	22.1%	No position	−6.0%	+7.0%
June 30, 2015	$63.81	22.8%	21.5%	No position	−17.9%	−6.4%
March 31, 2015	$63.14	22.5%	20.3%	No position	+1.4%	+0.2%
December 31, 2014	$68.01	22.8%	19.0%	No position	−6.8%	+0.9%
September 30, 2014	$56.88	19.5%	18.6%	No position	+21.8%	+4.9%
June 30, 2014	$62.83	22.1%	18.9%	No position	−9.2%	+1.1%
March 31, 2014	$67.44	24.2%	18.8%	Short	−6.5%	+5.2%
December 31, 2013	$59.17	22.0%	17.7%	No position	+14.4%	+1.7%
September 30, 2013	$55.66	21.9%	17.2%	No position	+8.4%	+10.5%
June 30, 2013	$53.66	21.7%	17.5%	No position	+4.1%	+5.2%
March 31, 2013	$50.56	20.9%	19.8%	No position	+6.5%	+2.9%
December 31, 2012	$45.21	18.9%	20.7%	No position	+12.3%	+10.5%
September 30, 2012	$40.02	17.5%	21.2%	No position	+15.5%	−0.4%
June 30, 2012	$39.19	17.2%	20.7%	No position	+2.6%	+6.3%
March 31, 2012	$46.83	21.3%	19.4%	No position	−15.9%	−2.8%
December 31, 2011	$37.47	17.1%	16.2%	No position	+25.5%	+12.7%
September 30, 2011	$33.82	15.1%	13.3%	No position	+13.4%	+11.6%
June 30, 2011	$51.09	22.4%	10.8%	Short	−33.5%	−13.8%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from Paccar's quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

Head to head: CMI vs PCAR PCAR vs WAB CAT vs PCAR

More: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment stocks compared, Industrials sector, rankings of US companies

Figures from Paccar's SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved October 29, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to Paccar.