Provident Financial Services Inc is a US-listed company in the regional banks industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$23
Valuation models combined (6)
Base case. Range ~$18–$28. Weighted average of 6 models (residual income, justified price-to-book, price-to-book vs return on equity (peers), price-to-book vs peers, forward price-to-earnings vs peers, dividend discount (two-stage)), the residual income counting double.
Modestly overvalued
The price is inside our value range, 1% above our base value.
Price used: $23.55, November 2, 2026
Provident Financial Services Inc valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $907m, up 8.1% on a year earlier, slower than the 12.4% growth a quarter earlier. Our cash-flow model value is $24.03 a share, against a share price of $23.27.
Source: 10-Q filed August 7, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Provident Financial Services Inc's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 8.1% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 38.6%. Where it stands out: net margin of 34.5% ranks 48 of 245 regional banks companies we cover. Where it lags: change in growth rate of -4.3pp ranks 201 of 244 regional banks companies we cover.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow fell 39.4% while net income grew 35.4%: a 75pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value Provident Financial Services Inc as a bank or lender, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.6%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.8 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$23 ~$16–$32 | Primary model, counts double |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$23 ~$19–$28 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs return on equity (peers) The price-to-book that peers with this return on equity trade on, from a line fitted across peers. | ~$28 ~$16–$40 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$18 ~$23–$35 | Included |
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$25 ~$24–$30 | Included |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | ~$23 ~$20–$29 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (residual income) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$23 ~$18–$28 | 6 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Provident Financial Services Inc with banks and lenders in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Moderate moat
How hard Provident Financial Services's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 10 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median 1.1% of total assets over 10 years.
Net margin has been a median 30.3%; its worst year was 15.0%.
The diluted share count rose 72.3% over five years.
AI disruption exposure: Medium. In this industry, AI could change how the product is made or sold, without replacing the core asset. The score above includes a 5-point deduction for that exposure (58 before it).
Next results: January 27, 2027, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $240m and EPS of $0.63 (range $0.62 to $0.64) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $2.47 | +10% | $938m | +8% |
| Next | $2.59 | +5% | $997m | +6% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +1.3% in 90 days, across 6 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +0.8% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 0 analysts raised Provident Financial Services Inc's forecast and 1 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $2.45 | $2.55 |
| 60 days ago | $2.46 | $2.60 |
| 30 days ago | $2.46 | $2.59 |
| 7 days ago | $2.46 | $2.58 |
| Now | $2.47 | $2.59 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $0.61 | $0.65 | +6.3% |
| Jun 2026 | $0.56 | $0.61 | +8.0% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.55 | $0.61 | +11.3% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.56 | $0.64 | +15.3% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months +34.5%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $839m | $907m | +8.1% |
| Net margin | 27.5% | 34.5% | +25.3% |
| P/E multiple | 9.9x | 9.8x | −0.5% |
| Share count | 130m | 131m | −0.1% |
Biggest factor: net margin.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| PFS | +41% | −8% | −11% | +11% | +10% | +23% |
| Industry peers (median) | +34% | −4% | −2% | +16% | +10% | +24% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| PFS | 75% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 64% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| PFS | −18% | −25% | −42% | −25% | −24% | −15% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 3, 2015: 64% from June 6, 2018 to March 18, 2020. Getting back needed a 178% gain, reached on May 13, 2021, 421 days after the low.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29, 2026 | −0.8% | −2.1% | — | — |
| July 30, 2026 | +2.5% | +2.4% | +2.8% | −1.4% |
| April 30, 2026 | −0.2% | +1.3% | +0.3% | −1.5% |
| January 28, 2026 | +6.7% | −0.2% | +11.9% | +2.1% |
| October 30, 2025 | −1.5% | −0.8% | −1.4% | +6.0% |
| July 24, 2025 | +4.2% | +0.5% | −0.3% | +9.5% |
| April 25, 2025 | −2.1% | +0.8% | +1.2% | +1.4% |
| January 29, 2025 | −3.3% | +0.1% | −0.5% | −3.7% |
| October 30, 2024 | −2.7% | −2.3% | +13.5% | +11.2% |
| July 26, 2024 | +0.4% | +1.2% | −6.8% | +3.6% |
| April 19, 2024 | +10.5% | 0.0% | +11.5% | +15.6% |
| January 26, 2024 | +1.6% | +0.7% | −8.8% | −13.5% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 26, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | $496.9M |
| FY23 Q4 | $479.3M |
| FY24 Q1 | $463.3M |
| FY24 Q2 | $508.6M |
| FY24 Q3 | $603.6M |
| FY24 Q4 | $694.7M |
| FY25 Q1 | $789M |
| FY25 Q2 | $839.4M |
| FY25 Q3 | $850.6M |
| FY25 Q4 | $870.4M |
| FY26 Q1 | $886.8M |
| FY26 Q2 | $907.3M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 26, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | 1.9% |
| FY23 Q4 | -5.2% |
| FY24 Q1 | -11.1% |
| FY24 Q2 | -2.1% |
| FY24 Q3 | 21.5% |
| FY24 Q4 | 45.0% |
| FY25 Q1 | 70.3% |
| FY25 Q2 | 65.1% |
| FY25 Q3 | 40.9% |
| FY25 Q4 | 25.3% |
| FY26 Q1 | 12.4% |
| FY26 Q2 | 8.1% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 26, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | 32.6% |
| FY23 Q4 | 34.6% |
| FY24 Q1 | 32.2% |
| FY24 Q2 | 39.3% |
| FY24 Q3 | 37.9% |
| FY24 Q4 | 61.2% |
| FY25 Q1 | 59.8% |
| FY25 Q2 | 68.9% |
| FY25 Q3 | 71.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | 49.5% |
| FY26 Q1 | 47.8% |
| FY26 Q2 | 38.6% |
What Provident Financial Services earned on its loans and securities in FY2025, what it paid depositors and lenders, and how its revenue split between running costs, credit losses, tax and profit.
| Interest income | $1.3B | |
|---|---|---|
| Fee and other income | $110M | 12.6% of revenue |
| Interest paid | $512M | |
| Net interest income | $761M | 87.4% of revenue |
| Revenue | $870M | |
| Non-interest expense | $459M | 52.7% of revenue |
| Pre-tax profit | $408M | 46.8% of revenue |
| Income tax | $117M | 13.4% of revenue |
| Net income | $291M | 33.5% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2009 Dec 2009 | 2010 Dec 2010 | 2011 Dec 2011 | 2012 Dec 2012 | 2013 Dec 2013 | 2014 Dec 2014 | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 212 | 241 | 249 | 261 | 260 | 280 | 305 | 314 | 334 | 359 | 362 | 385 | 453 | 505 | 479 | 695 | 870 | 907 |
| Net income | −122 | 50 | 57 | 67 | 71 | 74 | 84 | 88 | 94 | 118 | 113 | 97 | 168 | 176 | 128 | 116 | 291 | 313 |
| Diluted EPS | −$2.16 | $0.88 | $1.01 | $1.18 | $1.23 | $1.22 | $1.33 | $1.38 | $1.45 | $1.82 | $1.74 | $1.39 | $2.19 | $2.35 | $1.71 | $1.05 | $2.23 | $2.40 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | +5.0% | +13.2% | +3.3% | +5.0% | −0.3% | +7.6% | +8.9% | +2.9% | +6.4% | +7.6% | +0.7% | +6.4% | +17.6% | +11.6% | −5.2% | +45.0% | +25.3% | +8.1% |
| Net income | −392.6% | — | +15.4% | +17.3% | +4.9% | +4.4% | +13.7% | +4.9% | +7.0% | +26.0% | −4.9% | −13.9% | +73.2% | +4.6% | −26.9% | −10.0% | +152.0% | +35.4% |
| Diluted EPS | −391.9% | — | +14.8% | +16.8% | +4.2% | −0.8% | +9.0% | +3.8% | +5.1% | +25.5% | −4.4% | −20.1% | +57.6% | +7.3% | −27.2% | −38.6% | +112.4% | +35.2% |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net margin | −57.3% | 20.7% | 23.1% | 25.8% | 27.1% | 26.3% | 27.4% | 28.0% | 28.1% | 32.9% | 31.1% | 25.2% | 37.1% | 34.8% | 26.8% | 16.6% | 33.5% | 34.5% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 7.2% | 34.8% | 34.3% | 38.6% | 43.1% | 30.4% | 35.7% | 39.0% | 34.1% | 42.5% | 36.5% | 23.5% | 31.6% | 37.8% | 34.6% | 61.2% | 49.5% | 38.6% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 24 | 92 | 94 | 108 | 120 | 102 | 115 | 127 | 117 | 156 | 137 | 103 | 157 | 200 | 173 | 426 | 442 | 370 |
| Capital spending | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 20 |
| Free cash flow | 15 | 84 | 85 | 101 | 112 | 85 | 109 | 122 | 114 | 153 | 132 | 90 | 143 | 191 | 166 | 425 | 431 | 350 |
| Stock-based pay | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash | 124 | 52 | 70 | 104 | 101 | 104 | 102 | 144 | 191 | 105 | 146 | 418 | 685 | 186 | 180 | 206 | 209 | 228 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,200 | 1,440 | 1,510 | 1,560 | 1,960 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −124 | −52 | −70 | −104 | −101 | −104 | −102 | −144 | −191 | −105 | −146 | −418 | −685 | 1,014 | 1,260 | 1,304 | 1,351 | 1,732 |
| Diluted shares | 56m | 57m | 57m | 57m | 57m | 61m | 63m | 64m | 65m | 65m | 65m | 70m | 77m | 75m | 75m | 110m | 131m | 131m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dividends | 25 | 25 | 27 | 41 | 32 | 36 | 41 | 45 | 60 | 54 | 73 | 66 | 71 | 72 | 72 | 101 | 126 | 124 |
| Buybacks | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Total returned | 25 | 25 | 31 | 50 | 38 | 40 | 41 | 47 | 60 | 67 | 93 | 87 | 92 | 119 | 72 | 101 | 126 | 124 |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 211 | 206 | 209 | 214 | 222 | 226 | 225 | 235 |
| Net income | 46 | 49 | 64 | 72 | 72 | 83 | 79 | 78 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.36 | $0.40 | $0.49 | $0.55 | $0.55 | $0.64 | $0.61 | $0.60 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | +82.2% | +79.4% | +82.4% | +30.8% | +5.3% | +9.6% | +7.9% | +9.6% |
| Net income | +62.6% | +77.7% | +99.6% | — | +54.6% | +71.9% | +24.0% | +8.6% |
| Diluted EPS | −5.3% | +11.1% | +14.0% | — | +52.8% | +60.0% | +24.5% | +9.1% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | 22.0% | 23.6% | 30.7% | 33.6% | 32.3% | 37.0% | 35.3% | 33.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 32.2% | 116.9% | 41.9% | 85.2% | 43.6% | 28.4% | 36.0% | 46.3% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 69 | 239 | 89 | 187 | 98 | 69 | 85 | 119 |
| Capital spending | 1 | −1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
| Free cash flow | 68 | 241 | 87 | 183 | 97 | 64 | 81 | 109 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | PFS | FHB | CUBI | CATY | CBU | CASH | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $907m | $908m | $922m | $871m | $859m | $826m | $255m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 8.1% | 7.7% | 34.9% | 14.5% | 10.0% | −0.8% | 12.5% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 20.4% | 2.3% | 12.8% | 1.5% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.0% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 9.6% | 1.7% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 12.0% | −3.1% | 10.7% |
| Net margin | 34.5% | 30.3% | 31.6% | 39.9% | 26.6% | 21.3% | 28.7% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 40.8% | 42.4% | 41.3% | 62.2% | 35.9% | 84.4% | 34.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 38.6% | 40.2% | 39.8% | 61.4% | 28.7% | 82.8% | 31.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 48.9% | 34.3% | 33.5% | 49.3% | 27.8% | 57.7% | 29.9% |
| Stock pay / revenue | — | 1.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| Change in share count | 0.1% | −2.8% | 6.9% | −4.5% | −0.1% | −8.1% | 0.4% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 8.1% | 12.5% | 173 of 245 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -4.3pp | +0.0pp | 201 of 244 |
| Net margin Profitability | 34.5% | 28.7% | 48 of 245 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 0.1% | 0.4% | 105 of 230 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Line of business | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wealth Management Fees | $29.3M | 40.0% | ▼ 4.2% |
| Banking | $25.6M | 35.0% | ▲ 18.6% |
| Deposit Account (part of Banking) | $20.6M | 80.4% | ▲ 21.6% |
| Debit Card (part of Banking) | $5M | 19.6% | ▲ 7.6% |
| Insurance Commissions and Fees | $18.3M | 25.0% | ▲ 12.9% |
From Provident Financial Services Inc's 10-K filed February 27, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock, Inc. | $455M | 19.2M | 19.4% | ▼ 0.4% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | $195M | 8.2M | 8.3% | ▲ 2.1% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | $193M | 8.2M | 8.2% | ▲ 1.3% |
| State Street Corp | $190M | 8.0M | 8.1% | ▲ 10.5% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $133M | 5.6M | 5.7% | ▲ 0.6% |
| American Century Companies Inc | $101M | 4.3M | 4.3% | ▲ 19.7% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $82.6M | 3.5M | 3.5% | ▲ 5.2% |
| Wellington Management Group LLP | $73.3M | 3.1M | 3.1% | ▼ 46.4% |
| Millennium Management LLC | $54.3M | 2.3M | 2.3% | ▲ 5461.6% |
| Assenagon Asset Management S.A. | $47.2M | 2.0M | 2.0% | ▲ 113.8% |
| Systematic Financial Management LP | $44.3M | 1.9M | 1.9% | ▼ 4.3% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | $38.2M | 1.6M | 1.6% | ▲ 0.2% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Provident Financial Services Inc's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christy James A. EVP, CRO of Provident Bank | September 14, 2026 | Sell | 3,000 | $23.36 | $70,080 |
| Shara Thomas Director | September 1, 2026 | Sell | 40,266 | $23.06 | $928,534 |
| Shara Thomas Director | August 31, 2026 | Sell | 15,900 | $23.30 | $370,470 |
| Giannola Vito EVP & CRBO of provident Bank | August 18, 2026 | Sell | 20,000 | $24.36 | $487,200 |
| Lista George Pres/CEO Prov Protection Plus | June 12, 2026 | Sell | 3,528 | $23.41 | $82,590 |
| Lista George Pres/CEO Prov Protection Plus | May 8, 2026 | Sell | 2,556 | $22.40 | $57,254 |
| Mccracken Robert E Director | February 26, 2026 | Sell | 6,177 | $22.13 | $136,697 |
| Martin Christopher P Executive Chairman | February 5, 2026 | Sell | 1,050 | $23.45 | $24,622 |
| Lista George Pres/CEO Prov Protection Plus | November 6, 2025 | Sell | 8,262 | $18.35 | $151,605 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
No trades in Provident Financial Services Inc disclosed in the last 12 months; 1 earlier trade on record.
Next expected around January 27, 2027 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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