Progressive Corporation is a US-listed company in the property & casualty insurance industry. Its financial year ends in December.
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to September 2026 was $91.7bn, up 7.7% on a year earlier, slower than the 10.5% growth a quarter earlier. Its fundamentals grade moves from E to C.
Our model value for Progressive is under review, so past values are not shown until it is resolved.
Source: 10-Q filed November 2, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $91.1bn, up 10.5% on a year earlier, slower than 13.9% a quarter earlier. That growth ranks 2 of 8 among the property & casualty insurance companies we cover.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Progressive Corporation's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 7.7% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 16.6%.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow fell 10.7% while net income grew 8.5%: a 19pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No model value for Progressive Corporation at the moment. Current status: valuation models disagree too widely to rate. Available reported financials are shown below.
The inputs used by the models below have passed source checks. Individual model values are available below and in the interactive valuator. Their differences are shown explicitly; the platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld.
We value Progressive Corporation as an insurer, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 7.7%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.61 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$300 ~$220–$440 | Primary model, counts double |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$280 ~$230–$360 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs return on equity (peers) The price-to-book that peers with this return on equity trade on, from a line fitted across peers. | ~$150 ~$110–$190 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$76 ~$63–$130 | Included |
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$160 ~$140–$210 | Included |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | ~$320 ~$260–$420 | Included |
| Combined value Individual source-checked model scenarios are available. The platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld. | — | Combined value withheld. Review the individual models and their assumptions. |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Progressive Corporation with property, casualty and specialty insurers in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Moderate moat
How hard Progressive's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 10 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median 6.1% of total assets over 10 years.
Net margin has been a median 9.1%; its worst year was 1.8%.
The diluted share count fell 0.3% over five years.
AI disruption exposure: Medium. In this industry, AI could change how the product is made or sold, without replacing the core asset. The score above includes a 5-point deduction for that exposure (60 before it).
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $18.46 | +1% | $87.1bn | +5% |
| Next | $16.29 | −12% | $91.7bn | +5% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +0.2% in 90 days, across 23 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +4.9% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 13 analysts raised Progressive Corporation's forecast and 3 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $17.60 | $16.26 |
| 60 days ago | $17.90 | $16.28 |
| 30 days ago | $18.09 | $16.28 |
| 7 days ago | $18.41 | $16.24 |
| Now | $18.46 | $16.29 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $4.41 | $4.60 | +4.2% |
| Jun 2026 | $4.84 | $4.85 | +0.3% |
| Mar 2026 | $4.88 | $4.96 | +1.6% |
| Dec 2025 | $4.43 | $4.67 | +5.3% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months +20.9%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $82.4bn | $91.1bn | +10.5% |
| Net margin | 12.7% | 12.8% | +1.5% |
| P/E multiple | 10.9x | 11.7x | +7.7% |
| Share count | 588m | 587m | +0.2% |
Biggest factor: revenue.
Last 3 years +63.8%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $55.9bn | $91.1bn | +62.9% |
| Net margin | 3.1% | 12.8% | +311.7% |
| P/E multiple | 48.1x | 11.7x | −75.6% |
| Share count | 587m | 587m | +0.1% |
Biggest factor: net margin.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| PGR | +11% | +27% | +23% | +51% | −3% | +9% |
| Industry peers (median) | +15% | −3% | +9% | +30% | +9% | +10% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| PGR | 42% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 50% | 55% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| PGR | −16% | −11% | −23% | −11% | −30% | −14% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 3, 2015: 30% from March 17, 2025 to May 29, 2026. Getting back needed a 44% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 14, 2026 | −4.1% | −0.8% | −0.7% | — |
| July 15, 2026 | −9.2% | −0.1% | −9.7% | −7.8% |
| April 15, 2026 | +3.5% | +1.0% | +3.1% | +0.1% |
| January 28, 2026 | +0.1% | −0.2% | −1.2% | +2.7% |
| October 15, 2025 | −7.8% | −0.2% | −7.4% | −7.2% |
| July 16, 2025 | +2.1% | +0.9% | +2.2% | +3.6% |
| April 16, 2025 | −3.9% | −2.1% | −4.0% | +3.6% |
| January 29, 2025 | +1.7% | +0.1% | +1.6% | +15.1% |
| October 15, 2024 | +1.4% | −0.3% | −1.4% | +3.8% |
| July 16, 2024 | +2.0% | −0.8% | −0.6% | +7.9% |
| April 12, 2024 | +2.1% | −2.6% | +6.1% | +5.0% |
| January 24, 2024 | +4.5% | +0.7% | +4.7% | +12.3% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | $62.1B |
| FY24 Q1 | $65B |
| FY24 Q2 | $67.8B |
| FY24 Q3 | $72B |
| FY24 Q4 | $75.4B |
| FY25 Q1 | $78.5B |
| FY25 Q2 | $82.4B |
| FY25 Q3 | $85.2B |
| FY25 Q4 | $87.7B |
| FY26 Q1 | $89.5B |
| FY26 Q2 | $91.1B |
| FY26 Q3 | $91.7B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | 25.2% |
| FY24 Q1 | 24.9% |
| FY24 Q2 | 21.3% |
| FY24 Q3 | 22.7% |
| FY24 Q4 | 21.4% |
| FY25 Q1 | 20.7% |
| FY25 Q2 | 21.5% |
| FY25 Q3 | 18.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | 16.3% |
| FY26 Q1 | 13.9% |
| FY26 Q2 | 10.5% |
| FY26 Q3 | 7.7% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | 16.7% |
| FY24 Q1 | 18.7% |
| FY24 Q2 | 19.3% |
| FY24 Q3 | 19.9% |
| FY24 Q4 | 19.7% |
| FY25 Q1 | 20.0% |
| FY25 Q2 | 20.0% |
| FY25 Q3 | 20.0% |
| FY25 Q4 | 19.6% |
| FY26 Q1 | 18.4% |
| FY26 Q2 | 17.5% |
| FY26 Q3 | 16.6% |
| Fiscal year | 2009 Dec 2009 | 2010 Dec 2010 | 2011 Dec 2011 | 2012 Dec 2012 | 2013 Dec 2013 | 2014 Dec 2014 | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 14.6 | 15.2 | 15.8 | 17.1 | 18.2 | 19.4 | 20.9 | 23.4 | 26.8 | 32.0 | 39.0 | 42.7 | 47.7 | 49.6 | 62.1 | 75.4 | 87.7 | 91.7 |
| Net income | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 3.9 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 11.6 |
| Diluted EPS | $1.57 | $1.61 | $1.59 | $1.48 | $1.93 | $2.15 | $2.15 | $1.76 | $2.72 | $4.42 | $6.72 | $9.66 | $5.66 | $1.18 | $6.58 | $14.40 | $19.23 | $19.85 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | +13.4% | +4.5% | +3.7% | +8.3% | +6.4% | +6.7% | +7.5% | +12.4% | +14.5% | +19.2% | +22.0% | +9.3% | +11.8% | +4.0% | +25.2% | +21.4% | +16.3% | +7.7% |
| Net income | — | +1.0% | −4.9% | −11.1% | +29.2% | +9.9% | −1.0% | −18.7% | +54.4% | +64.3% | +51.8% | +43.7% | −41.3% | −78.5% | — | +117.3% | +33.3% | +8.5% |
| Diluted EPS | — | +2.5% | −1.2% | −6.9% | +30.4% | +11.4% | 0.0% | −18.1% | +54.5% | +62.5% | +52.0% | +43.8% | −41.4% | −79.2% | — | +118.8% | +33.5% | +9.0% |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net margin | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 7.0% | 1.5% | 6.3% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 12.7% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 18.8% | 15.1% | 15.7% | 15.8% | 13.2% | 16.7% | 19.7% | 19.6% | 16.6% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 10.6 | 15.1 | 17.5 | 15.7 |
| Capital spending | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Free cash flow | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 10.4 | 14.8 | 17.2 | 15.2 |
| Stock-based pay | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | — |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.3 | 14.7 | 17.1 | — |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash | — | — | — | — | — | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Total debt | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 8.4 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | — | — | — | — | — | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 8.2 |
| Diluted shares | 672m | 663m | 637m | 608m | 604m | 595m | 589m | 585m | 586m | 587m | 587m | 588m | 587m | 587m | 588m | 588m | 588m | 586m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dividends | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 8.1 |
| Buybacks | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total returned | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 8.1 |
| Quarter | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 | 2026 Q3 Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 20.3 | 20.4 | 22.0 | 22.5 | 22.7 | 22.2 | 23.6 | 23.2 |
| Net income | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| Diluted EPS | $4.01 | $4.37 | $5.40 | $4.45 | $5.02 | $4.80 | $5.67 | $4.37 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | +20.0% | +18.4% | +21.3% | +14.2% | +12.2% | +8.7% | +7.3% | +3.0% |
| Net income | +18.5% | +10.1% | +117.6% | +12.0% | +25.3% | +9.8% | +4.3% | −2.8% |
| Diluted EPS | +19.0% | +10.9% | +117.7% | +12.1% | +25.2% | +9.8% | +5.0% | −1.8% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | 11.6% | 12.6% | 14.4% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 11.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 14.3% | 24.9% | 17.9% | 22.8% | 13.4% | 19.4% | 14.7% | 19.0% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 4.5 |
| Capital spending | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Free cash flow | 2.9 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | PGR | ALL | CB | TRV | HIG | ACGL | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $91.7bn | $70.1bn | $61.8bn | $48.9bn | $29.9bn | $19.2bn | $1.7bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 1.1% | 9.2% | 0.4% | 8.0% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 16.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 17.7% | 9.5% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 3.0% | 11.8% | 0.3% | −0.5% | 3.9% | −10.5% | 4.2% |
| Operating margin | — | — | — | 13.3% | 10.3% | — | 9.4% |
| Net margin | 12.7% | 18.9% | 18.2% | 17.0% | 15.4% | 24.4% | 10.5% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 17.1% | 17.8% | 28.8% | 21.8% | 23.4% | 31.7% | 18.2% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 16.6% | 17.5% | — | 20.4% | 19.8% | 31.5% | 17.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 18.8% | 13.6% | — | 19.4% | 20.9% | 35.5% | 16.5% |
| Stock pay / revenue | — | — | — | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Change in share count | −0.4% | −1.9% | −2.8% | −5.6% | −4.0% | −5.0% | −0.7% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 7.7% | 8.3% | 26 of 48 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -2.8pp | -0.7pp | 32 of 48 |
| Net margin Profitability | 12.7% | 10.8% | 18 of 48 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -0.4% | -0.7% | 27 of 47 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock, Inc. | $10.5B | 48.0M | 9.5% | ▼ 8.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $8.3B | 38.1M | 7.5% | ▲ 0.1% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $5.8B | 26.5M | 5.2% | ▲ 17.6% |
| State Street Corp | $5.8B | 26.5M | 5.2% | ▲ 2.5% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $3.7B | 17.0M | 3.3% | ▲ 4.6% |
| Capital World Investors | $2.7B | 12.5M | 2.5% | ▼ 11.9% |
| Bank Of America Corp | $2.7B | 12.3M | 2.4% | ▼ 4.6% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | $2.6B | 11.7M | 2.3% | ▼ 0.1% |
| FMR LLC | $2.4B | 11.2M | 2.2% | ▲ 43.2% |
| Jpmorgan Chase & Co | $2.3B | 10.3M | 2.0% | ▼ 15.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2B | 9.3M | 1.8% | ▲ 5.3% |
| Norges Bank | $1.9B | 8.6M | 1.7% | — |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Progressive Corporation's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 9 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broz Steven Chief Information Officer | October 22, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 1,225 | $223.32 | $273,567 |
| Broz Steven Chief Information Officer | September 24, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 1,225 | $204.29 | $250,255 |
| Griffith Susan Patricia President and CEO | September 1, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 37,338 | $219.50 | $8.2M |
| Broz Steven Chief Information Officer | August 20, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 1,225 | $219.40 | $268,765 |
| Niederst Lori A Chief Personal Lines Officer | August 13, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 7,339 | $209.29 | $1.5M |
| Quigg Andrew J VP and Chief Financial Officer | July 28, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 3,499 | $220.00 | $769,780 |
| Bailo Karen Commercial Lines President | July 27, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 8,452 | $212.71 | $1.8M |
| Bauer Jonathan S. Chief Investment Officer | July 27, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 2,242 | $212.71 | $476,896 |
| Griffith Susan Patricia President and CEO | July 27, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 37,338 | $212.71 | $7.9M |
| Murphy John Jo Claims President | July 27, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 8,124 | $212.70 | $1.7M |
| Broz Steven Chief Information Officer | July 23, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 1,156 | $205.17 | $237,177 |
| Kelly Jeffrey D Director | June 24, 2026 | Sell | 7,000 | $216.33 | $1.5M |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
In the last 12 months, 3 members of Congress disclosed 7 purchases and 4 sales of Progressive Corporation shares.
Next expected around January 27, 2027 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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