Pony AI Inc. is a US-listed company in the application software industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$4.2
Growth cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$3.0–$5.5. Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability.
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: valued with our growth model, which doesn't carry a Buy/Hold/Sell rating yet.
Pony AI Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $90m. Free-cash-flow margin held at -232.0%. The diluted share count is up 232.3% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades D. It passes 2 of our 2 financial-health checks. Our growth cash-flow model value is $4.23 a share, against a share price of $4.64.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Pony AI Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 20.0% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of -232.0%. Where it stands out: change in growth rate of +15.6pp ranks 20 of 184 application software companies we cover. Where it lags: change in share count of 232.3% ranks 158 of 163 application software companies we cover.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow fell 71.0% while net income grew 51.1%: a 122pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for PONY from the sources we follow. See filings →
We value Pony AI Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 9.9%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.1 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$4.2 ~$3.0–$5.5 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: no positive earnings in the latest twelve months |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: the model gives no positive value |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Forward price-to-sales vs peers Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$0.2 ~$1.5–$4.3 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.05x) |
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | ~$0.2 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.04x) |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (growth cash-flow model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$4.2 ~$3.0–$5.5 | 1 model |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Pony AI Inc. with Application Software in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| At fiscal year end | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | $14.35 | $14.50 |
| Market value | $1.6bn | $5.5bn |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | −$536m | −$280m |
| Enterprise value | $1.1bn | $5.2bn |
| Multiples | ||
| Price / sales | 21.9x | 61.2x |
| Price / earnings | — | — |
| Price / free cash flow | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | — | — |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: High.
Next results: November 18, 2026, before the open. Analysts expect revenue of $39m and EPS of −$0.18 (range −$0.19 to −$0.17) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | −$0.64 | −36% | $150m | +67% |
| Next | −$0.67 | −5% | $312m | +108% |
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +5.8% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 0 analysts raised Pony AI Inc.'s forecast and 1 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | −$0.61 | −$0.60 |
| 60 days ago | −$0.63 | −$0.64 |
| 30 days ago | −$0.64 | −$0.66 |
| 7 days ago | −$0.64 | −$0.67 |
| Now | −$0.64 | −$0.67 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | −$0.17 | −$0.10 | +40.5% |
| Mar 2026 | −$0.13 | −$0.09 | +28.7% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
| Calendar year | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|
| Return | ||
| PONY | +1% | −68% |
| Industry peers (median) | −21% | −14% |
| S&P 500 | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||
| PONY | 58% | 36% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||
| PONY | −82% | −73% |
| S&P 500 | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 27, 2024: 82% from February 21, 2025 to April 22, 2025. Getting back needed a 468% gain, reached on October 2, 2025, 163 days after the low.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY22 Q4 | $68.4M |
| FY23 Q4 | $71.9M |
| FY24 Q4 | $75M |
| FY25 Q4 | $90M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY22 Q4 | -249.6% |
| FY23 Q4 | -199.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | -380.6% |
| FY25 Q4 | -289.8% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY22 Q4 | -243.9% |
| FY23 Q4 | -167.6% |
| FY24 Q4 | -162.8% |
| FY25 Q4 | -232.0% |
| Fiscal year | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||
| Revenue | 68 | 72 | 75 | 90 |
| Gross profit | 32 | 17 | 11 | 14 |
| EBITDA | −153 | −128 | −276 | −254 |
| Operating income | −171 | −143 | −286 | −261 |
| Net income | −148 | −125 | −274 | −134 |
| Diluted EPS | −$1.73 | −$1.40 | −$2.40 | −$0.35 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||
| Revenue | — | +5.1% | +4.3% | +20.0% |
| Margins | ||||
| Gross margin | 46.9% | 23.5% | 15.2% | 15.7% |
| EBITDA margin | −223.9% | −177.7% | −367.5% | −281.9% |
| Operating margin | −249.6% | −199.2% | −380.6% | −289.8% |
| Net margin | −216.4% | −173.6% | −365.4% | −148.9% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −243.9% | −167.6% | −162.8% | −232.0% |
| Cash flow | ||||
| Cash from operations | −155 | −115 | −111 | −165 |
| Capital spending | 12 | 5 | 11 | 44 |
| Free cash flow | −167 | −121 | −122 | −209 |
| Stock-based pay | 13 | 3 | 127 | 31 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −180 | −124 | −249 | −240 |
| Balance sheet | ||||
| Cash | 316 | 426 | 536 | 293 |
| Total debt | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −312 | −426 | −536 | −280 |
| Diluted shares | 85m | 89m | 114m | 380m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||
| Buybacks | — | 1 | — | — |
| Total returned | — | 1 | — | — |
| Last 12 months unless stated | PONY | VERI | EGAN | WRD | SSTI | RDVT | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $90m | $91m | $91m | $95m | $98m | $99m | $482m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 20.0% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 89.8% | −5.7% | 20.2% | 12.0% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | −13.2% | −2.4% | — | 5.9% | 19.9% | 11.1% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | 4.6% | −4.7% | — | −7.7% | 22.7% | 11.9% |
| Gross margin | 15.7% | 72.4% | 73.4% | 30.2% | 50.1% | — | 69.2% |
| Operating margin | −289.8% | −90.2% | 8.7% | −269.8% | −16.4% | 17.9% | 1.1% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | −90.2% | 6.7% | — | −8.3% | 12.9% | −0.8% |
| Net margin | −148.9% | −117.5% | 9.7% | −241.7% | −16.9% | 16.5% | 2.1% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | −183.3% | −55.0% | 23.2% | −193.1% | 3.5% | 34.4% | 18.2% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −232.0% | −60.1% | 22.5% | −229.2% | −1.1% | 33.9% | 15.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | −46.6% | 13.7% | — | 6.1% | 31.7% | 16.2% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 34.2% | 6.5% | 3.1% | — | 9.3% | 7.4% | 9.3% |
| Change in share count | 232.3% | 34.1% | −2.8% | 214.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 2.2% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 20.0% | 12.0% | 55 of 184 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +15.6pp | +0.2pp | 20 of 184 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 15.7% | 69.8% | 151 of 160 |
| Operating margin Profitability | -289.8% | 1.1% | 165 of 181 |
| Net margin Profitability | -148.9% | 2.1% | 162 of 185 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | -232.0% | 15.2% | 167 of 180 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 34.2% | 9.3% | 159 of 177 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 232.3% | 1.7% | 158 of 163 |
| Days sales outstanding Balance sheet | 96 days | 57 days | 136 of 162 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ontario Teachers Pension Plan Board | $150M | 21.6M | 15.9% | ▲ 233.3% |
| Baillie Gifford & Co | $86.3M | 12.4M | 9.1% | ▲ 95.3% |
| FMR LLC | $75.1M | 10.8M | 7.9% | ▼ 22.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $56.7M | 8.2M | 6.0% | ▲ 3.6% |
| Hsg Holding Ltd | $52.4M | 7.5M | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| Tmt General Partner Ltd | $48.2M | 6.9M | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $36.9M | 5.3M | 3.9% | — |
| Mirae Asset Global Etfs Holdings Ltd. | $30.8M | 4.4M | 3.2% | ▲ 3.6% |
| UBS Group AG | $30.5M | 4.4M | 3.2% | ▲ 131.9% |
| Aspex Management (HK) Ltd | $28.8M | 4.1M | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Idg China Venture Capital Fund Iv Associates L.P. | $27.7M | 4.0M | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $20.2M | 2.9M | 2.1% | ▼ 9.2% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Pony AI Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 1 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mo Luyi Vice President | September 28, 2026 | Sell | 12,425 | $7.10 | $88,218 |
| Zhang Ning Vice President | September 28, 2026 | Sell | 15,524 | $7.10 | $110,220 |
| Wang Haojun Chief Financial Officer | September 28, 2026 | Sell | 13,751 | $7.10 | $97,632 |
| Wang Haojun Chief Financial Officer | June 26, 2026 | Sell | 13,751 | $6.86 | $94,332 |
| Zhang Ning Vice President | June 26, 2026 | Sell | 17,347 | $6.86 | $119,000 |
| Mo Luyi Vice President | June 26, 2026 | Sell | 14,460 | $6.86 | $99,196 |
| Wang Haojun Chief Financial Officer | March 30, 2026 | Sell | 18,283 | $8.69 | $158,879 |
| Mo Luyi Vice President | March 30, 2026 | Sell | 19,864 | $8.69 | $172,618 |
| Gao Tian VP, Chief of Staff, GC | March 30, 2026 | Sell | 31,561 | $8.69 | $274,265 |
| Zhang Ning Vice President | March 30, 2026 | Sell | 22,946 | $8.69 | $199,401 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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