Avita Medical, Inc. is a US-listed company in the health care equipment industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$6.3
Forward price-to-sales vs peers
Base case. Range ~$6.3–$24. Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative.
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: valued with our growth model, which doesn't carry a Buy/Hold/Sell rating yet.
Avita Medical, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $76m, up 1.0% on a year earlier, about the same pace as a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin rose to -32.5% from -56.0% a year earlier. Operating margin widened to -46.6% from -62.4%. The diluted share count is up 14.7% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders. It passes 1 of our 3 financial-health checks.
Source: 10-Q filed August 6, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Avita Medical, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 1.0% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of -32.5%. Where it stands out: long-term debt as % of assets of 0.0% ranks 1 of 87 health care equipment companies we cover.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow grew 41.3% while net income grew 16.5%: a 25pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value Avita Medical, Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 11%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.34 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$0.7 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.04x) |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: no positive earnings in the latest twelve months |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: book value or earnings not available |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Forward price-to-sales vs peers Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$6.3 ~$6.8–$24 | Included, half weight |
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | — | Does not apply: revenue and margins don't support a positive value |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (growth cash-flow model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$6.3 ~$6.3–$24 | 1 model |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Avita Medical, Inc. with Health Care Equipment in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| At fiscal year end | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share price | $5.35 | $30.95 | $30.54 | $20.52 | $6.60 | $13.72 | $12.80 | $3.45 | $15.41 |
| Market value | $50m | $497m | $620m | $465m | $165m | $348m | $331m | $96m | $463m |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | −$18m | $18m | $28m | $33m | $38m |
| Enterprise value | $50m | $497m | $620m | $465m | $147m | $365m | $359m | $129m | $500m |
| Multiples | |||||||||
| Price / sales | 53.7x | 90.8x | 43.4x | 15.9x | 4.8x | 6.9x | 5.2x | 1.3x | 6.1x |
| Price / earnings | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Price / free cash flow | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Weak moat
How hard Avita Medical's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 8 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Cash operating profit has been a median -25.7% of total assets over 6 years.
Gross margin has been a median 82.3%, moving by 2.9 percentage points (standard deviation) across 8 years.
Operating margin has been a median -95.6%; its worst year was -466.4%.
Free cash flow was positive in 0 of 7 years, at a median -62.8% of revenue.
The diluted share count rose 32.4% over five years; stock-based pay has been a median 21.2% of revenue.
AI disruption exposure: Low. In this industry, the business rests on physical assets, regulated networks or products AI itself depends on.
Next results: November 5, 2026, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $32m and EPS of −$0.29 (range −$0.36 to −$0.23) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $0.42 | +117% | $125m | +24% |
| Next | −$0.60 | −245% | $159m | +27% |
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +133.6% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 4 analysts raised Avita Medical, Inc.'s forecast and 0 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $0.08 | −$0.86 |
| 60 days ago | $0.25 | −$0.61 |
| 30 days ago | $0.25 | −$0.60 |
| 7 days ago | $0.25 | −$0.60 |
| Now | $0.18 | −$0.60 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | −$0.39 | −$0.36 | +7.9% |
| Mar 2026 | −$0.38 | −$0.48 | −27.3% |
| Dec 2025 | −$0.55 | −$0.54 | +2.8% |
| Sept 2025 | −$0.46 | −$0.71 | −56.3% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months +298.2%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $75m | $76m | +1.0% |
| P/S multiple | 1.4x | 6.1x | +352.1% |
| Share count | 26m | 30m | −12.8% |
Biggest factor: p/s multiple. Loss-making at one end, so the split uses price/sales.
Last 3 years +44.0%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $41m | $76m | +85.1% |
| P/S multiple | 6.6x | 6.1x | −7.1% |
| Share count | 25m | 30m | −16.3% |
Biggest factor: revenue. Loss-making at one end, so the split uses price/sales.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| RCEL | −36% | −45% | +108% | −7% | −73% | +347% |
| Industry peers (median) | −7% | −37% | −9% | −20% | −16% | −15% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| RCEL | 33% | 25% | 67% | 50% | 25% | 73% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| RCEL | −59% | −63% | −55% | −58% | −77% | −33% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 3, 2015: 94% from February 19, 2020 to December 17, 2025. Getting back needed a 1588% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 6, 2026 | +73.8% | +0.5% | +79.2% | +150.6% |
| May 14, 2026 | +7.0% | −0.4% | +5.2% | −7.7% |
| February 12, 2026 | +8.3% | −1.5% | +24.7% | +20.3% |
| January 13, 2026 | +2.9% | −0.7% | +13.7% | +8.8% |
| November 6, 2025 | +7.7% | −1.0% | +6.9% | −1.4% |
| August 7, 2025 | −20.7% | +0.7% | +8.2% | −21.5% |
| May 8, 2025 | −26.4% | +0.6% | −32.7% | −35.5% |
| February 13, 2025 | +22.8% | +1.1% | +13.2% | +4.9% |
| January 7, 2025 | −34.5% | −1.0% | −34.7% | −36.4% |
| November 7, 2024 | −2.0% | +1.2% | +3.2% | +12.4% |
| August 8, 2024 | +19.6% | +2.8% | +16.4% | +13.4% |
| May 13, 2024 | +5.6% | +0.5% | −1.1% | +7.1% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | $45.4M |
| FY23 Q4 | $50.1M |
| FY24 Q1 | $50.7M |
| FY24 Q2 | $54.1M |
| FY24 Q3 | $60M |
| FY24 Q4 | $64.3M |
| FY25 Q1 | $71.7M |
| FY25 Q2 | $74.9M |
| FY25 Q3 | $72.4M |
| FY25 Q4 | $71.6M |
| FY26 Q1 | $72.3M |
| FY26 Q2 | $75.6M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | 42.3% |
| FY23 Q4 | 45.7% |
| FY24 Q1 | 35.4% |
| FY24 Q2 | 32.5% |
| FY24 Q3 | 32.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | 28.1% |
| FY25 Q1 | 41.4% |
| FY25 Q2 | 38.3% |
| FY25 Q3 | 20.6% |
| FY25 Q4 | 11.5% |
| FY26 Q1 | 1.0% |
| FY26 Q2 | 1.0% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | -79.9% |
| FY23 Q4 | -85.1% |
| FY24 Q1 | -98.5% |
| FY24 Q2 | -100.5% |
| FY24 Q3 | -98.1% |
| FY24 Q4 | -88.1% |
| FY25 Q1 | -71.5% |
| FY25 Q2 | -62.4% |
| FY25 Q3 | -58.1% |
| FY25 Q4 | -59.4% |
| FY26 Q1 | -54.6% |
| FY26 Q2 | -46.6% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | -69.9% |
| FY23 Q4 | -78.6% |
| FY24 Q1 | -102.7% |
| FY24 Q2 | -107.3% |
| FY24 Q3 | -99.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | -90.4% |
| FY25 Q1 | -65.0% |
| FY25 Q2 | -56.0% |
| FY25 Q3 | -51.2% |
| FY25 Q4 | -45.0% |
| FY26 Q1 | -43.9% |
| FY26 Q2 | -32.5% |
| Fiscal year | 2018 Jun 2018 | 2019 Jun 2019 | 2020 Jun 2020 | 2021 Jun 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||||
| Revenue | 1 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 34 | 50 | 64 | 72 | 76 |
| Gross profit | 0 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 28 | 42 | 55 | 59 | 62 |
| EBITDA | −14 | −25 | −42 | −26 | −27 | −42 | −55 | −40 | −33 |
| Operating income | −14 | −26 | −43 | −27 | −28 | −43 | −57 | −43 | −35 |
| Net income | −13 | −25 | −42 | −27 | −27 | −35 | −62 | −49 | −43 |
| Diluted EPS | $1.37 | $1.56 | $2.07 | $1.17 | $1.07 | −$1.40 | −$2.39 | −$1.74 | −$1.43 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||||
| Revenue | — | +489.2% | +160.6% | +104.9% | +17.8% | +45.7% | +28.1% | +11.5% | +1.0% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| Gross margin | 41.2% | 76.8% | 79.2% | 79.6% | 82.4% | 84.5% | 85.8% | 82.1% | 81.6% |
| EBITDA margin | <−999% | −461.4% | −296.0% | −88.3% | −78.3% | −83.8% | −86.3% | −56.1% | −43.7% |
| Operating margin | <−999% | −466.4% | −299.2% | −90.8% | −79.9% | −85.1% | −88.1% | −59.4% | −46.6% |
| Net margin | <−999% | −458.6% | −294.7% | −90.9% | −77.5% | −70.6% | −96.3% | −67.8% | −57.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | <−999% | −370.3% | −163.6% | −91.7% | −56.8% | −78.6% | −90.4% | −45.0% | −32.5% |
| Cash flow | |||||||||
| Cash from operations | −13 | −19 | −23 | −26 | −19 | −38 | −49 | −31 | −24 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −13 | −20 | −23 | −27 | −20 | −39 | −58 | −32 | −25 |
| Stock-based pay | 1 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 7 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −15 | −22 | −40 | −32 | −27 | −48 | −72 | −42 | −32 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||
| Cash | — | — | — | — | 18 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 9 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 42 | 43 | 47 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | — | — | — | — | −18 | 18 | 28 | 33 | 38 |
| Diluted shares | 9m | 16m | 20m | 23m | 25m | 25m | 26m | 28m | 30m |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 20 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 22 |
| Gross profit | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 18 |
| EBITDA | −14 | −10 | −11 | −11 | −9 | −10 | −8 | −6 |
| Operating income | −14 | −10 | −12 | −11 | −9 | −10 | −9 | −7 |
| Net income | −16 | −12 | −14 | −10 | −13 | −12 | −11 | −8 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.62 | −$0.44 | −$0.53 | −$0.38 | −$0.46 | −$0.37 | −$0.35 | −$0.25 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | +43.2% | +29.7% | +66.7% | +21.2% | −12.7% | −4.3% | +4.0% | +17.8% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Gross margin | 83.7% | 87.6% | 84.7% | 81.2% | 81.3% | 81.2% | 81.7% | 81.9% |
| EBITDA margin | −69.2% | −51.9% | −61.1% | −58.4% | −51.2% | −55.1% | −42.5% | −29.8% |
| Operating margin | −70.6% | −54.1% | −63.9% | −60.5% | −53.6% | −59.1% | −45.7% | −31.6% |
| Net margin | −82.9% | −63.0% | −74.9% | −53.9% | −77.3% | −66.0% | −55.1% | −35.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −56.1% | −52.5% | −56.9% | −58.4% | −36.1% | −27.1% | −52.4% | −16.6% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | −7 | −8 | −10 | −10 | −5 | −5 | −10 | −3 |
| Capital spending | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −11 | −10 | −11 | −11 | −6 | −5 | −10 | −4 |
| Stock-based pay | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −15 | −12 | −13 | −13 | −9 | −6 | −11 | −6 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | RCEL | ELMD | PDEX | TELA | SGHT | LUNG | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $76m | $74m | $80m | $80m | $83m | $87m | $99m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 1.0% | 15.3% | 13.3% | 6.1% | 9.3% | −3.4% | 9.2% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 22.8% | 15.4% | 19.2% | 17.6% | 0.8% | 13.0% | 13.5% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 17.8% | 11.6% | 11.0% | −4.5% | 19.5% | −4.6% | 10.2% |
| Gross margin | 81.6% | 78.5% | 32.5% | 67.8% | 88.0% | 77.1% | 61.2% |
| Operating margin | −46.6% | 18.8% | 16.8% | −42.6% | −33.4% | −53.0% | −8.5% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | −69.8% | 15.3% | 15.6% | −50.7% | −54.2% | −64.4% | −17.9% |
| Net margin | −57.0% | 15.3% | 15.1% | −51.5% | −35.7% | −55.0% | −12.0% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | −32.0% | 13.1% | 14.4% | −39.0% | −27.9% | −34.9% | −1.9% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −32.5% | 11.3% | 13.4% | −39.6% | −28.0% | −35.1% | −3.9% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | −65.3% | 14.8% | 2.2% | −51.2% | −34.5% | −39.2% | −7.0% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 9.6% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 12.9% | 19.7% | 6.1% |
| Change in share count | 14.7% | −2.5% | −1.8% | 14.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 1.0% | 9.1% | 98 of 129 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +0.0pp | -0.6pp | 55 of 129 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 81.6% | 61.9% | 16 of 123 |
| Operating margin Profitability | -46.6% | -8.3% | 89 of 132 |
| Net margin Profitability | -57.0% | -12.0% | 91 of 133 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | -32.5% | -3.4% | 87 of 128 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 9.6% | 6.1% | 75 of 123 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 0.0% | 24.2% | 1 of 87 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 14.7% | 3.3% | 90 of 115 |
| Days sales outstanding Balance sheet | 48 days | 57 days | 33 of 118 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Line of business | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Recell Go Preparation Kit | $35.8M | ▲ 104.6% |
| Permeaderm | $6M | — |
These categories overlap or exclude eliminations, so shares aren't shown.
| Region | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $68.8M | 96.1% | ▲ 10.7% |
| Japan | $2.1M | 2.9% | ▲ 45.9% |
| United Kingdom | $486,000 | 0.7% | ▲ 148.0% |
| Australia | $200,000 | 0.3% | ▼ 35.9% |
| European Union | $49,000 | 0.1% | ▼ 68.4% |
From Avita Medical, Inc.'s 10-K filed February 12, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $5.5M | 1.3M | 27.1% | ▼ 0.1% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $2.3M | 565K | 11.5% | ▼ 50.1% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $1.4M | 340K | 6.9% | ▼ 37.4% |
| Marshall Wace, LLP | $1.4M | 338K | 6.9% | ▲ 543.8% |
| AQR Capital Management LLC | $1.3M | 321K | 6.5% | ▲ 240.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $827,909 | 200K | 4.1% | ▲ 27.2% |
| Vanguard Fiduciary Trust Co | $753,320 | 182K | 3.7% | ▼ 5.7% |
| Newedge Advisors, LLC | $615,085 | 149K | 3.0% | ▲ 71.4% |
| Macquarie Group Ltd | $595,395 | 144K | 2.9% | ▲ 1111.3% |
| State Street Corp | $532,675 | 129K | 2.6% | ▼ 69.9% |
| Quantinno Capital Management LP | $434,674 | 105K | 2.1% | ▲ 368.1% |
| Divisadero Street Capital Management, LP | $413,000 | 100K | 2.0% | 0.0% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Avita Medical, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O'Toole David D CFO | June 12, 2026 | Buy | 2,000 | $3.97 | $7,940 |
| Woody Joseph Fralin Director | June 9, 2026 | Buy | 5,000 | $4.20 | $21,000 |
| Woody Joseph Fralin Director | June 9, 2026 | Buy | 5,000 | $4.18 | $20,900 |
| Woody Joseph Fralin Director | June 9, 2026 | Buy | 5,200 | $4.00 | $20,800 |
| Woody Joseph Fralin Director | June 3, 2026 | Buy | 5,000 | $4.10 | $20,500 |
| Woody Joseph Fralin Director | June 3, 2026 | Buy | 5,000 | $4.09 | $20,450 |
| Woody Joseph Fralin Director | June 2, 2026 | Buy | 5,000 | $4.18 | $20,900 |
| Woody Joseph Fralin Director | June 2, 2026 | Buy | 5,000 | $4.21 | $21,050 |
| Woody Joseph Fralin Director | June 1, 2026 | Buy | 5,000 | $4.34 | $21,700 |
| Woody Joseph Fralin Director | June 1, 2026 | Buy | 5,000 | $4.26 | $21,300 |
| O'Toole David D CFO | May 20, 2026 | Buy | 2,000 | $4.26 | $8,520 |
| O'Toole David D CFO | May 19, 2026 | Buy | 2,000 | $4.24 | $8,480 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around October 29, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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