Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is a US-listed company in the diversified metals & mining industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$21
Revenue-to-maturity cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$17–$27 across our lower- and higher-growth cases (13.7%–23.7% a year).
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: only 2 valuation models apply; a rating needs 3.
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $7.26bn, up 18.7% on a year earlier, against a decline of 0.8% a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin fell to 0.8% from 11.3% a year earlier. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades B+. It passes 2 of our 5 financial-health checks. Our revenue-to-maturity cash-flow model value is $21.19 a share, against a share price of $8.59.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 18.7% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 0.8%. Where it stands out: change in share count of 0.0% ranks 2 of 16 diversified metals & mining companies we cover.
Current signal Revenue growth accelerating: TTM revenue growth rose to 18.7% (+19.4pp vs the prior quarter).
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for SBSW from the sources we follow. See filings →
We value Sibanye Stillwater Ltd as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 10.9%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.33 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | ~$21 ~$17–$27 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: no positive earnings in the latest twelve months |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$0.3 ~$0.1–$0.5 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.03x) |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Price-to-sales vs peers Sales per share times peers' typical price-to-sales; used only when earnings are negative. | ~$11 ~$6.7–$78 | Included, half weight |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (revenue-to-maturity model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$19 ~$11–$21 | 2 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Sibanye Stillwater Ltd with Diversified Metals & Mining in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Low.
No analyst estimates are published for Sibanye Stillwater Ltd: too few analysts cover it.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY17 Q4 | $3.5B |
| FY18 Q4 | $3.9B |
| FY19 Q4 | $5.1B |
| FY20 Q4 | $7.8B |
| FY21 Q4 | $11.7B |
| FY22 Q4 | $8.5B |
| FY23 Q4 | $6.2B |
| FY24 Q4 | $6.1B |
| FY25 Q4 | $7.3B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY18 Q4 | 11.5% |
| FY19 Q4 | 31.0% |
| FY20 Q4 | 53.8% |
| FY21 Q4 | 50.2% |
| FY22 Q4 | -27.3% |
| FY23 Q4 | -27.4% |
| FY24 Q4 | -0.8% |
| FY25 Q4 | 18.7% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY17 Q4 | -7.3% |
| FY18 Q4 | 10.1% |
| FY19 Q4 | 2.4% |
| FY20 Q4 | 13.8% |
| FY21 Q4 | 11.3% |
| FY22 Q4 | -0.3% |
| FY23 Q4 | -13.5% |
| FY24 Q4 | -10.2% |
| FY25 Q4 | 0.8% |
| Fiscal year | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||||
| Revenue | 3.5 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 7.3 |
| Gross profit | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| Net income | −0.3 | −0.2 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | −2.0 | −0.4 | −0.3 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.69 | −$0.33 | — | $2.57 | $3.06 | $1.60 | −$2.89 | −$0.56 | −$0.41 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||||
| Revenue | — | +11.5% | +31.0% | +53.8% | +50.2% | −27.3% | −27.4% | −0.8% | +18.7% |
| Net income | — | — | — | — | +25.3% | −49.6% | −281.4% | — | — |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | — | +18.9% | −47.9% | −281.3% | — | — |
| Margins | |||||||||
| Gross margin | 8.1% | 5.0% | 13.2% | 34.6% | 36.5% | 26.5% | 12.2% | 6.2% | 24.6% |
| Net margin | −9.7% | −4.9% | 0.1% | 23.0% | 19.2% | 13.3% | −33.2% | −6.5% | −4.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −7.3% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 13.8% | 11.3% | −0.3% | −13.5% | −10.2% | 0.8% |
| Cash flow | |||||||||
| Cash from operations | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Capital spending | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Free cash flow | −0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | −0.0 | −0.8 | −0.6 | 0.1 |
| Stock-based pay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | −0.0 | −0.8 | −0.6 | −0.1 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||
| Cash | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Total debt | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Diluted shares | 483m | 566m | 645m | 694m | 732m | 708m | 708m | 708m | 708m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||||||
| Buybacks | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — |
| Total returned | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — |
| Last 12 months unless stated | SBSW | NEXA | MTRN | GSM | CMP | BHP | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $7.3bn | $3.0bn | $2.1bn | $1.3bn | $1.3bn | $58.8bn | $118m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 18.7% | 8.5% | 21.6% | −18.8% | 5.5% | 14.6% | 14.6% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | — | 7.2% | — | 1.9% | — | 13.4% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | — | 42.2% | — | 0.3% | — | 7.2% |
| Gross margin | 24.6% | 23.7% | 16.0% | 27.0% | 17.2% | — | 24.6% |
| Operating margin | — | 16.6% | 6.0% | −10.0% | 8.9% | 40.6% | −5.3% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | 16.7% | 5.5% | −2.0% | 0.1% | 43.4% | −23.9% |
| Net margin | −4.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | −12.8% | 1.4% | 16.7% | −36.1% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 16.5% | 12.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 12.1% | 37.1% | −9.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 0.8% | 0.4% | 2.4% | −0.8% | 6.0% | 20.3% | −48.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 30.7% | −37.2% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 1.6% | — | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.8% | — | 11.9% |
| Change in share count | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | −0.2% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 8.3% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 18.7% | 14.6% | 7 of 17 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +19.4pp | +10.2pp | 5 of 16 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 24.6% | 24.6% | 7 of 14 |
| Net margin Profitability | -4.0% | -36.1% | 6 of 17 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | 0.8% | -34.6% | 4 of 16 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 1.6% | 13.5% | 4 of 13 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 21.3% | 21.3% | 8 of 14 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 0.0% | 8.3% | 2 of 16 |
| Days sales outstanding Balance sheet | 21 days | 37 days | 2 of 12 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lingotto Investment Management LLP | $162M | 19.1M | 14.4% | ▼ 2.6% |
| Two Sigma Investments, LP | $61.8M | 7.3M | 5.5% | ▲ 15.4% |
| Arrowstreet Capital, Limited Partnership | $51.5M | 6.1M | 4.6% | ▼ 31.8% |
| Bridgewater Associates, LP | $48.3M | 5.7M | 4.3% | ▲ 28.6% |
| UBS Group AG | $45.6M | 5.4M | 4.1% | ▲ 39.9% |
| Condire Management, LP | $44.5M | 5.2M | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC | $38.9M | 4.6M | 3.5% | ▲ 7.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $38.9M | 4.6M | 3.5% | ▼ 30.2% |
| D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. | $37.7M | 4.4M | 3.4% | ▼ 12.1% |
| Renaissance Technologies LLC | $34.8M | 4.1M | 3.1% | ▲ 124.3% |
| American Century Companies Inc | $27.7M | 3.3M | 2.5% | ▲ 8.8% |
| Allianz Asset Management Gmbh | $26.1M | 2.1M | 2.3% | 0.0% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Sibanye Stillwater Ltd's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Menell Richard Peter Director | June 30, 2026 | Buy | 15,000 | $2.19 | $32,850 |
| Keyter Charl Chief Financial Officer | June 26, 2026 | Buy | 200,000 | $2.24 | $448,000 |
| Nkosi Themba George Chief People & Culture Officer | March 31, 2026 | Buy | 11,865 | $2.91 | $34,527 |
| Carter Charles Edward Chief Regional Officer: Amer. | March 30, 2026 | Buy | 10,000 | $11.40 | $114,000 |
| Menell Richard Peter Director | March 24, 2026 | Buy | 2,500 | $11.43 | $28,575 |
| Keyter Charl Chief Financial Officer | March 23, 2026 | Buy | 35,000 | $2.70 | $94,500 |
| Keyter Charl Chief Financial Officer | March 20, 2026 | Buy | 148,819 | $11.63 | $1.7M |
| Maphai Thabane Vincent Director | March 16, 2026 | Buy | 12,000 | $13.34 | $160,080 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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