BHP Group Ltd is a US-listed company in the diversified metals & mining industry. Its financial year ends in June.
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~$110
Cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$82–$150 across our lower- and higher-growth cases (3.8%–13.8% a year).
Undervalued
The price is below our entire value range; our base value is 38% above it.
Price used: $80.07, November 2, 2026
BHP Group Ltd valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $58.8bn, up 14.6% on a year earlier, against a decline of 7.9% a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin fell to 20.3% from 40.4% a year earlier. Operating margin narrowed to 40.6% from 52.4%. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades A. It passes 2 of our 3 financial-health checks. Our cash-flow model value is $110 a share, against a share price of $79.16.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
BHP Group Ltd's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 14.6% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 20.3%. Where it stands out: net margin of 16.7% ranks 1 of 17 diversified metals & mining companies we cover.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$110 per share in the base case (~$82–$150 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow grew 28.4% while net income grew 9.0%: a 19pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
No figure in BHP Group Ltd's latest results trips our warning thresholds.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for BHP from the sources we follow. See filings →
The share price implies about 3.2% a year of cash-flow growth for five years.That is close to the 0.6% a year revenue growth BHP Group has delivered.
Read with care: free cash flow has swung sharply in the past year (often a one-off tax, legal or working-capital item), so the cash-flow base behind this reading may be unusually low or high.
Our cash-flow model with every input fixed except growth over the next five years, solved for the growth at which the model value equals the share price ($78.92, Nov 3, 2026). Cash-flow growth then fades to 2.5% a year; discount rate 8.5%. Delivered figures are revenue growth from SEC filings. This is a model exercise, not investment advice or a forecast of the share price. All companies
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of BHP Group Ltd's free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $11.9B, FY2026 Q4 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
We value BHP Group Ltd as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 10.9%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.33 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow to the firm (after stock pay, with after-tax interest added back), grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5% as the firm rate, less debt and other claims. | ~$110 ~$82–$150 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: fewer than 5 peers with a usable multiple |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$140 ~$99–$190 | Included |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$68 ~$61–$78 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (cash-flow model (dcf)) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$110 ~$68–$140 | 3 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare BHP Group Ltd with Diversified Metals & Mining in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| Discount rate ↓ / growth → | −5% growth | 0% growth | 5% growth | 10% growth | 15% growth | 20% growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | $63 | $87 | $119 | $161 | $216 | $287 |
| 8.5% | $47 | $65 | $88 | $118 | $157 | $208 |
| 10% | $38 | $51 | $69 | $92 | $122 | $160 |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Low.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | — | — | $58.1bn | −1% |
| Next | — | — | $57.2bn | −2% |
How BHP Group Ltd’s listed options are priced, and three ways to use them that follow from our valuation. Quotes are delayed, read November 2, 2026. Check the live chain at your broker before trading.
There is not enough price history to measure realised volatility.
Our rule for “rich”: implied at least 1.2× 60-day realised (beyond measurement noise), above 1-year realised (not just a calm spell), and in the top 20% of our coverage that day. Never with results inside the option’s life. These are our conventions, built on research showing option prices usually imply more movement than follows, most when the gap is wide. How we judge this.
Sell the $75.00 put expiring December 18, 2026 (46 days) for $1.75 a share — $175 per contract.
Previous session · Bid $1.75, ask $1.90, quoted Mon 2 Nov, 17:16 New York time with BHP at $79.90. Option prices move with the shares: check the live chain at your broker before trading.
Not offered: no liquid call at or above our price target — the model says the upside is worth more than any listed strike.
For holders: sell a call at a strike at or above our fair value, so the shares are only sold at a price the model calls full value.
Not offered: the shares trade below our fair value: a collar caps upside the model expects.
For holders of a stock trading at or above our fair value: buy a put for a floor and sell a call to pay for it.
General research, not personal advice. Options can lose you more than you expect and are not suitable for everyone: put sellers can be made to buy shares that keep falling, call sellers give up gains above the strike, and results or news can move prices sharply. Chances shown are approximations from each option’s delta. Spreads, fees and early assignment are not modelled.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | $28.6B |
| FY17 Q4 | $35.7B |
| FY18 Q4 | $43.1B |
| FY19 Q4 | $44.3B |
| FY20 Q4 | $38.9B |
| FY21 Q4 | $56.9B |
| FY22 Q4 | $65.1B |
| FY23 Q4 | $53.8B |
| FY24 Q4 | $55.7B |
| FY25 Q4 | $51.3B |
| FY26 Q4 | $58.8B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY17 Q4 | 25.1% |
| FY18 Q4 | 20.7% |
| FY19 Q4 | 2.7% |
| FY20 Q4 | -12.1% |
| FY21 Q4 | 46.2% |
| FY22 Q4 | 14.4% |
| FY23 Q4 | -17.3% |
| FY24 Q4 | 3.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | -7.9% |
| FY26 Q4 | 14.6% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | 9.8% |
| FY17 Q4 | 35.1% |
| FY18 Q4 | 37.1% |
| FY19 Q4 | 36.4% |
| FY20 Q4 | 35.2% |
| FY21 Q4 | 44.8% |
| FY22 Q4 | 52.4% |
| FY23 Q4 | 42.6% |
| FY24 Q4 | 31.5% |
| FY25 Q4 | 38.0% |
| FY26 Q4 | 40.6% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | 17.2% |
| FY17 Q4 | 36.7% |
| FY18 Q4 | 31.3% |
| FY19 Q4 | 26.2% |
| FY20 Q4 | 25.0% |
| FY21 Q4 | 38.0% |
| FY22 Q4 | 40.4% |
| FY23 Q4 | 22.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | 21.3% |
| FY25 Q4 | 18.1% |
| FY26 Q4 | 20.3% |
Each dollar BHP Group took in during FY2026, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on running the business, and what was left after tax.
| Revenue | $58.8B | |
|---|---|---|
| Other operating costs | $34.9B | 59.4% of revenue |
| Operating income | $23.9B | 40.6% of revenue |
| Income tax | $9.4B | 16.0% of revenue |
| Interest and other | $4.6B | 7.9% of revenue |
| Net income | $9.8B | 16.7% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2016 Jun 2016 | 2017 Jun 2017 | 2018 Jun 2018 | 2019 Jun 2019 | 2020 Jun 2020 | 2021 Jun 2021 | 2022 Jun 2022 | 2023 Jun 2023 | 2024 Jun 2024 | 2025 Jun 2025 | 2026 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 28.6 | 35.7 | 43.1 | 44.3 | 38.9 | 56.9 | 65.1 | 53.8 | 55.7 | 51.3 | 58.8 |
| EBITDA | 9.0 | 18.7 | 22.3 | 21.9 | 18.4 | 30.6 | 39.8 | 28.0 | 22.8 | 25.0 | 30.1 |
| Operating income | 2.8 | 12.6 | 16.0 | 16.1 | 13.7 | 25.5 | 34.1 | 22.9 | 17.5 | 19.5 | 23.9 |
| Net income | −6.4 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 30.9 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 9.8 |
| Diluted EPS | −$2.40 | $2.21 | $1.39 | $3.20 | $3.14 | $4.46 | $12.19 | $5.09 | $3.11 | $3.55 | $3.86 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | — | +25.1% | +20.7% | +2.7% | −12.1% | +46.2% | +14.4% | −17.3% | +3.4% | −7.9% | +14.6% |
| EBITDA | — | +107.9% | +18.9% | −1.5% | −16.4% | +66.8% | +30.0% | −29.6% | −18.4% | +9.5% | +20.3% |
| Operating income | — | +347.7% | +27.4% | +0.7% | −15.1% | +86.5% | +33.7% | −32.8% | −23.5% | +11.0% | +22.6% |
| Net income | — | — | −37.1% | +124.2% | −4.2% | +42.1% | +173.4% | −58.2% | −38.9% | +14.2% | +9.0% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | −37.1% | +130.4% | −1.8% | +42.0% | +173.2% | −58.2% | −38.9% | +14.1% | +8.9% |
| Margins | |||||||||||
| EBITDA margin | 31.6% | 52.4% | 51.7% | 49.5% | 47.1% | 53.8% | 61.1% | 52.0% | 41.0% | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| Operating margin | 9.8% | 35.1% | 37.1% | 36.4% | 35.2% | 44.8% | 52.4% | 42.6% | 31.5% | 38.0% | 40.6% |
| Net margin | −22.4% | 16.5% | 8.6% | 18.8% | 20.4% | 19.9% | 47.5% | 24.0% | 14.2% | 17.6% | 16.7% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 17.2% | 36.7% | 31.3% | 26.2% | 25.0% | 38.0% | 40.4% | 22.2% | 21.3% | 18.1% | 20.3% |
| Cash flow | |||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 10.6 | 16.8 | 18.5 | 17.9 | 15.7 | 27.2 | 32.2 | 18.7 | 20.7 | 18.7 | 21.8 |
| Capital spending | 5.7 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 9.8 |
| Free cash flow | 4.9 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 21.6 | 26.3 | 12.0 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 11.9 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||
| Cash | 10.3 | 14.2 | 15.9 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 15.2 | 17.2 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 11.9 | 18.5 |
| Total debt | 0.0 | 29.6 | 26.0 | 24.1 | 23.6 | 17.1 | 13.9 | 19.3 | 17.6 | 21.5 | 23.6 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −10.3 | 15.4 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 1.8 | −3.4 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 |
| Diluted shares | 2,661m | 2,668m | 2,669m | 2,597m | 2,535m | 2,534m | 2,536m | 2,537m | 2,539m | 2,542m | 2,545m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||||||||
| Buybacks | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total returned | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Last 12 months unless stated | BHP | SBSW | NEXA | MTRN | GSM | CMP | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $58.8bn | $7.3bn | $3.0bn | $2.1bn | $1.3bn | $1.3bn | $118m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 14.6% | 18.7% | 8.5% | 21.6% | −18.8% | 5.5% | 14.6% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | — | — | 7.2% | — | 1.9% | 13.4% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | — | — | 42.2% | — | 0.3% | 7.2% |
| Gross margin | — | 24.6% | 23.7% | 16.0% | 27.0% | 17.2% | 24.6% |
| Operating margin | 40.6% | — | 16.6% | 6.0% | −10.0% | 8.9% | −5.3% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | 43.4% | — | 16.7% | 5.5% | −2.0% | 0.1% | −23.9% |
| Net margin | 16.7% | −4.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | −12.8% | 1.4% | −36.1% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 37.1% | 16.5% | 12.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 12.1% | −9.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 20.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 2.4% | −0.8% | 6.0% | −48.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 30.7% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | −37.2% |
| Stock pay / revenue | — | 1.6% | — | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 11.9% |
| Change in share count | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | −0.2% | 1.9% | 8.3% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 14.6% | 14.6% | 9 of 17 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +22.5pp | +10.2pp | 4 of 16 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 40.6% | -0.5% | 2 of 14 |
| Net margin Profitability | 16.7% | -36.1% | 1 of 17 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | 20.3% | -34.6% | 1 of 16 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 0.1% | 8.3% | 4 of 16 |
| Days sales outstanding Balance sheet | 31 days | 37 days | 6 of 12 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fisher Asset Management, LLC | $2B | 24.3M | 21.0% | ▲ 2.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | $870M | 10.4M | 9.0% | ▲ 11.5% |
| Morgan Stanley | $869M | 10.4M | 9.0% | ▼ 8.4% |
| FMR LLC | $560M | 6.7M | 5.8% | ▲ 42.8% |
| Citigroup Inc | $469M | 5.6M | 4.8% | ▲ 131.3% |
| Wellington Management Group LLP | $294M | 3.5M | 3.0% | ▼ 6.3% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | $291M | 3.5M | 3.0% | ▼ 1.0% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $287M | 3.4M | 3.0% | ▲ 14.5% |
| Price T Rowe Associates Inc | $244M | 2.9M | 2.5% | ▲ 1283.4% |
| Northern Trust Corp | $199M | 2.4M | 2.1% | ▲ 1.7% |
| Bank Of America Corp | $197M | 2.4M | 2.0% | ▼ 18.8% |
| Neuberger Berman Group LLC | $193M | 2.3M | 2.0% | ▲ 2.5% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not BHP Group Ltd's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 1 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stone Emma Kate Group Financial Controller | August 21, 2026 | Sell | 6,774 | $46.57 | $315,465 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
In the last 12 months, 1 member of Congress disclosed 0 purchases and 1 sale of BHP Group Ltd shares.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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