Selective Insurance Group Inc: what the price is pricing in

The price implies earnings growth of -6.5% a year; our model expects 9.5%. That gap is wide enough for a long position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.

What growth in earnings is the price paying for?

The price implies earnings growth of -6.5% a year; our model expects 9.5%.

Market more pessimistic than our model: long this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position77 long, 0 short, since March 31, 2023

Beat the S&P 5002 of 728.6% of quarters held

Strategy against the index−29.1%cumulative; worst fall -29.1%

$10,000 became$13,767S&P 500 bought and held: $19,457

Over time

The earnings growth the price-to-earnings ratio requires, against the growth our model assumes. Net income is already after interest, so it is valued at the return shareholders require, plus spare cash (none for banks and insurers, whose cash is funded by deposits and policies), with no debt subtracted.

Growth our model assumes Growth the P/E implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

StrategyS&P 500, buy and hold Hypothetical, before costs. The strategy holds the S&P 500 and only changes on a signal: it switches into SIGI in long quarters and adds a short of SIGI in short quarters. The gap between the lines is what the signal added or lost.

Skill or luck?

In plain English: With only 7 quarters of positions, Selective Insurance Group Inc's own record is too short to tell skill from luck. The results across all companies on the priced-in page are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	7	28.6%	−4.3%	−5.1%	−17.8%	-1.04	Too few quarters
Shorts	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
All positions	7	28.6%	−4.3%	−5.1%	−17.8%	-1.04	Too few quarters

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (15)

From	Price paid	Growth the P/E implies	Growth our model assumes	Position	SIGI	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$83.60	-6.5%	9.5%	Long	+20.2%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$97.01	-2.3%	11.0%	Long	−13.4%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$75.39	-7.0%	12.1%	Long	+29.3%	+15.1%
December 31, 2025	$83.67	-2.8%	12.7%	Long	−9.4%	−4.4%
September 30, 2025	$81.07	-2.3%	13.2%	Long	+3.8%	+2.7%
June 30, 2025	$86.65	7.4%	13.3%	No position	−6.0%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$91.54	10.7%	13.9%	No position	−4.9%	+10.8%
December 31, 2024	$93.52	8.7%	14.2%	No position	−1.7%	−4.3%
September 30, 2024	$93.30	8.7%	14.7%	No position	+0.6%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$93.83	1.6%	15.7%	Long	−0.2%	+5.8%
March 31, 2024	$109.17	3.6%	16.0%	Long	−13.7%	+4.4%
December 31, 2023	$99.48	4.0%	14.9%	Long	+10.1%	+10.4%
September 30, 2023	$103.17	7.3%	12.3%	No position	−3.3%	+11.6%
June 30, 2023	$95.95	7.2%	9.1%	No position	+7.8%	−3.2%
March 31, 2023	$95.33	9.8%	6.5%	No position	+0.9%	+8.7%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

Is the price-to-earnings ratio cheap or dear for the growth delivered?

Selective Insurance Group Inc trades on 10.1 times earnings while its earnings per share grew 21.3% a year: a PEG of 0.47.

Market more pessimistic than our model: long this quarter

PEG: under 0.75 cheap for the growth, over 3 expensive

Quarters with a position22 long, 0 short, since March 31, 2026

Beat the S&P 5001 of 250.0% of quarters held

Strategy against the index−3.9%cumulative; worst fall -15.8%

Over time

The P/E divided by the earnings-per-share growth delivered over three years. Under 0.75 the market pays little for the growth (long); over 3 it pays a lot (short).

EPS growth, 3 years (%) Price-to-earnings ratio (x) Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

Skill or luck?

In plain English: With only 2 quarters of positions, Selective Insurance Group Inc's own record is too short to tell skill from luck. The results across all companies on the priced-in page are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	2	50.0%	−0.8%	−0.8%	−7.6%	—	Too few quarters
Shorts	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
All positions	2	50.0%	−0.8%	−0.8%	−7.6%	—	Too few quarters

Every quarter (3)

From	Price paid	Price-to-earnings ratio (x)	EPS growth, 3 years (%)	Position	SIGI	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$83.60	10.1x	21.3%	Long	+20.2%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$97.01	12.9x	20.3%	Long	−13.4%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$75.39	9.8x	27.4%	Long	+29.3%	+15.1%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

What return on equity is the price paying for?

The price implies a return on equity of 10.7%; the company earned 14.2%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What the company delivered

Quarters with a position60 long, 6 short, since March 31, 2023

Beat the S&P 5004 of 666.7% of quarters held

Strategy against the index+26.4%cumulative; worst fall -11.1%

$10,000 became$23,659S&P 500 bought and held: $19,457

Over time

The return on equity that justifies the price-to-book ratio, (P/B)(r − g) + g with an 8.5% required return and 2.5% long-run growth, against the return the company delivered last year.

Return on equity delivered Return on equity the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

Skill or luck?

In plain English: With only 6 quarters of positions, Selective Insurance Group Inc's own record is too short to tell skill from luck. The results across all companies on the priced-in page are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
Shorts	6	66.7%	+4.4%	+4.8%	+16.9%	1.04	Too few quarters
All positions	6	66.7%	+4.4%	+4.8%	+16.9%	1.04	Too few quarters

Every quarter (15)

From	Price paid	Return on equity the price implies	Return on equity delivered	Position	SIGI	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$83.60	10.7%	14.2%	No position	+20.2%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$97.01	12.3%	13.3%	No position	−13.4%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$75.39	10.1%	13.9%	No position	+29.3%	+15.1%
December 31, 2025	$83.67	11.3%	12.2%	No position	−9.4%	−4.4%
September 30, 2025	$81.07	11.3%	12.2%	No position	+3.8%	+2.7%
June 30, 2025	$86.65	12.3%	7.5%	No position	−6.0%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$91.54	13.4%	6.8%	Short	−4.9%	+10.8%
December 31, 2024	$93.52	13.4%	8.1%	Short	−1.7%	−4.3%
September 30, 2024	$93.30	14.2%	8.3%	Short	+0.6%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$93.83	14.0%	12.5%	No position	−0.2%	+5.8%
March 31, 2024	$109.17	16.0%	13.3%	No position	−13.7%	+4.4%
December 31, 2023	$99.48	16.3%	12.9%	No position	+10.1%	+10.4%
September 30, 2023	$103.17	16.6%	10.6%	Short	−3.3%	+11.6%
June 30, 2023	$95.95	15.6%	9.6%	Short	+7.8%	−3.2%
March 31, 2023	$95.33	16.3%	8.2%	Short	+0.9%	+8.7%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from Selective Insurance Group Inc's quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

Head to head: MCY vs SIGI KMPR vs SIGI SIGI vs THG SIGI vs WTM

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Figures from Selective Insurance Group Inc's SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved October 26, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to Selective Insurance Group Inc.