Service Properties Trust: what the price is pricing in

There is no current earnings reading for Service Properties Trust: its latest is from June 30, 2023. Switch lens below to see the other readings and how trading the gap would have done.

No published rating for Service Properties Trust: only 1 valuation models apply; a rating needs 3. The readings below run our models backwards for research and show how trading the gap would have done; they are not a valuation or a rating. The valuation page shows the models and their status.

What growth in earnings is the price paying for?

No current reading. The latest is from June 30, 2023: the figures this lens needs have not been filed recently enough (or no longer apply), so there is no position this quarter.

Quarters with a position160 long, 16 short, since September 30, 2016

Beat the S&P 50012 of 1675.0% of quarters held

Strategy against the index+132.4%cumulative; worst fall -11.8%

$10,000 became$40,610S&P 500 bought and held: $16,181

Over time

The earnings growth the price-to-earnings ratio requires, against the growth our model assumes. Net income is already after interest, so it is valued at the return shareholders require, plus spare cash (none for banks and insurers, whose cash is funded by deposits and policies), with no debt subtracted.

Growth our model assumes Growth the P/E implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

StrategyS&P 500, buy and hold Hypothetical, before costs. The strategy holds the S&P 500 and only changes on a signal: it switches into SVC in long quarters and adds a short of SVC in short quarters. The gap between the lines is what the signal added or lost.

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 16 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 12, by +6.3% a quarter on average. That is suggestive but could still be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
Shorts	16	75.0%	+6.3%	+4.9%	+23.5%	1.65	Some evidence
All positions	16	75.0%	+6.3%	+4.9%	+23.5%	1.65	Some evidence

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (17)

From	Price paid	Growth the P/E implies	Growth our model assumes	Position	SVC	S&P 500
June 30, 2023	$8.69	72.1%	5.7%	Short	−9.5%	−3.2%
June 30, 2020	$7.09	100.0%*	2.0%	Short	+12.3%	+9.0%
March 31, 2020	$5.40	2.5%	2.6%	No position	+31.5%	+20.2%
December 31, 2019	$24.33	39.1%	2.1%	Short	−77.3%	−19.4%
September 30, 2019	$25.79	32.6%	3.1%	Short	−3.7%	+9.0%
June 30, 2019	$25.00	25.9%	4.5%	Short	+5.4%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$26.31	38.3%	5.9%	Short	−3.0%	+4.2%
December 31, 2018	$23.88	25.3%	7.1%	Short	+12.5%	+13.5%
September 30, 2018	$28.84	30.9%	7.7%	Short	−15.5%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$28.61	33.4%	7.4%	Short	+2.7%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$25.34	34.6%	6.9%	Short	+15.3%	+3.5%
December 31, 2017	$29.85	35.1%	5.9%	Short	−13.6%	−1.0%
September 30, 2017	$28.49	37.2%	6.1%	Short	+6.7%	+6.8%
June 30, 2017	$29.15	38.1%	7.0%	Short	−0.5%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$31.53	38.3%	8.0%	Short	−6.0%	+3.1%
December 31, 2016	$31.74	47.1%	9.3%	Short	+0.9%	+5.9%
September 30, 2016	$29.72	43.6%	10.8%	Short	+8.7%	+4.0%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split. * At the edge of the range we solve for.

Is the price-to-earnings ratio cheap or dear for the growth delivered?

No current reading. The latest is from March 31, 2020: the figures this lens needs have not been filed recently enough (or no longer apply), so there is no position this quarter.

Quarters with a position120 long, 12 short, since March 31, 2017

Beat the S&P 50010 of 1283.3% of quarters held

Strategy against the index+127.1%cumulative; worst fall -11.4%

$10,000 became$33,412S&P 500 bought and held: $13,449

Over time

The P/E divided by the earnings-per-share growth delivered over three years. Under 0.75 the market pays little for the growth (long); over 3 it pays a lot (short).

EPS growth, 3 years (%) Price-to-earnings ratio (x) Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 12 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 10, by +8.1% a quarter on average. That is suggestive but could still be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
Shorts	12	83.3%	+8.1%	+4.9%	+31.4%	1.65	Some evidence
All positions	12	83.3%	+8.1%	+4.9%	+31.4%	1.65	Some evidence

Every quarter (12)

From	Price paid	Price-to-earnings ratio (x)	EPS growth, 3 years (%)	Position	SVC	S&P 500
March 31, 2020	$5.40	17.1x	3.4%	Short	+31.5%	+20.2%
December 31, 2019	$24.33	120.6x	3.2%	Short	−77.3%	−19.4%
September 30, 2019	$25.79	87.3x	14.3%	Short	−3.7%	+9.0%
June 30, 2019	$25.00	62.0x	19.9%	Short	+5.4%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$26.31	116.4x	0.9%	Short	−3.0%	+4.2%
December 31, 2018	$23.88	60.1x	7.3%	Short	+12.5%	+13.5%
September 30, 2018	$28.84	80.3x	5.4%	Short	−15.5%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$28.61	91.0x	5.5%	Short	+2.7%	+7.7%
December 31, 2017	$29.85	99.3x	8.8%	Short	−13.6%	−1.0%
September 30, 2017	$28.49	109.9x	8.0%	Short	+6.7%	+6.8%
June 30, 2017	$29.15	114.9x	9.4%	Short	−0.5%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$31.53	116.0x	13.9%	Short	−6.0%	+3.1%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

What return on equity is the price paying for?

No current reading. The latest is from June 30, 2026: the figures this lens needs have not been filed recently enough (or no longer apply), so there is no position this quarter.

Quarters with a position380 long, 38 short, since September 30, 2016

Beat the S&P 50025 of 3865.8% of quarters held

Strategy against the index+428.8%cumulative; worst fall -59.2%

$10,000 became$247,735S&P 500 bought and held: $40,214

Over time

The return on equity that justifies the price-to-book ratio, (P/B)(r − g) + g with an 8.5% required return and 2.5% long-run growth, against the return the company delivered last year.

Return on equity delivered Return on equity the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 38 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 25, by +6.3% a quarter on average. That is suggestive but could still be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
Shorts	38	65.8%	+6.3%	+4.9%	+19.2%	1.99	Some evidence
All positions	38	65.8%	+6.3%	+4.9%	+19.2%	1.99	Some evidence

Every quarter (39)

From	Price paid	Return on equity the price implies	Return on equity delivered	Position	SVC	S&P 500
June 30, 2026	$1.69	19.6%	-38.6%	Short	−23.3%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$1.36	13.0%	-27.0%	Short	+25.1%	+15.1%
December 31, 2025	$1.84	16.6%	-35.3%	Short	−25.7%	−4.4%
June 30, 2025	$2.39	18.7%	-33.9%	Short	+13.8%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$2.61	17.7%	-26.5%	Short	−7.9%	+10.8%
December 31, 2024	$2.54	16.1%	-21.7%	Short	+3.1%	−4.3%
September 30, 2024	$4.56	24.9%	-17.0%	Short	−44.1%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$5.14	25.4%	-11.0%	Short	−8.2%	+5.8%
March 31, 2024	$6.78	29.9%	-2.5%	Short	−21.6%	+4.4%
December 31, 2023	$8.54	35.0%	-1.5%	Short	−18.6%	+10.4%
September 30, 2023	$7.69	30.9%	-0.7%	Short	+14.2%	+11.6%
June 30, 2023	$8.69	33.6%	0.9%	Short	−9.5%	−3.2%
March 31, 2023	$9.96	38.0%	-9.0%	Short	−10.8%	+8.7%
December 31, 2022	$7.29	27.3%	-18.7%	Short	+40.1%	+7.5%
September 30, 2022	$5.19	20.3%	-22.5%	Short	+44.3%	+7.6%
June 30, 2022	$5.23	20.5%	-28.1%	Short	−0.6%	−4.9%
March 31, 2022	$8.83	30.6%	-29.8%	Short	−40.7%	−16.1%
December 31, 2021	$8.79	27.3%	-24.2%	Short	+0.6%	−4.6%
September 30, 2021	$11.21	33.0%	-25.3%	Short	−21.5%	+11.1%
June 30, 2021	$12.60	35.1%	-22.0%	Short	−10.9%	+0.6%
March 31, 2021	$11.86	30.2%	-13.5%	Short	+6.3%	+8.4%
December 31, 2020	$11.49	27.8%	-7.8%	Short	+3.3%	+6.3%
September 30, 2020	$7.95	19.2%	-1.8%	Short	+44.7%	+12.1%
June 30, 2020	$7.09	17.2%	0.0%	Short	+12.3%	+9.0%
March 31, 2020	$5.40	13.1%	10.2%	No position	+31.5%	+20.2%
December 31, 2019	$24.33	48.5%	6.1%	Short	−77.3%	−19.4%
September 30, 2019	$25.79	50.3%	9.0%	Short	−3.7%	+9.0%
June 30, 2019	$25.00	47.5%	12.1%	Short	+5.4%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$26.31	52.4%	6.9%	Short	−3.0%	+4.2%
December 31, 2018	$23.88	44.6%	11.7%	Short	+12.5%	+13.5%
September 30, 2018	$28.84	54.0%	10.6%	Short	−15.5%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$28.61	53.8%	9.3%	Short	+2.7%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$25.34	47.8%	7.3%	Short	+15.3%	+3.5%
December 31, 2017	$29.85	55.2%	8.3%	Short	−13.6%	−1.0%
September 30, 2017	$28.49	53.0%	7.6%	Short	+6.7%	+6.8%
June 30, 2017	$29.15	53.5%	7.4%	Short	−0.5%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$31.53	52.1%	7.5%	Short	−6.0%	+3.1%
December 31, 2016	$31.74	50.0%	4.6%	Short	+0.9%	+5.9%
September 30, 2016	$29.72	50.8%	5.2%	Short	+8.7%	+4.0%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from Service Properties Trust's quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

Head to head: PEB vs SVC APLE vs SVC RLJ vs SVC

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Figures from Service Properties Trust's SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved October 26, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to Service Properties Trust.