Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is a US-listed company in the diversified metals & mining industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $389m, up 44.5% on a year earlier, faster than the 31.8% growth a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin held at 80.5%. Operating margin widened to 56.8% from 45.7%. It passes 6 of our 6 financial-health checks.
Our model value for Triple Flag Precious Metals is under review, so past values are not shown until it is resolved.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 44.5% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 80.5%.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$47 per share in the base case (~$36–$62 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Net margin expanding: TTM net margin reached 61.7%, up 70.3pp year over year.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
No figure in Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s latest results trips our warning thresholds.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for TFPM from the sources we follow. See filings →
The inputs used by the models below have passed source checks. Individual model values are available below and in the interactive valuator. Their differences are shown explicitly; the platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld.
We value Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 10.9%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.33 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow to the firm (after stock pay, with after-tax interest added back), grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5% as the firm rate, less debt and other claims. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$13 ~$11–$33 | Included |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$4.8 ~$3.4–$6.7 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.17x) |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$2.5 ~$2.2–$2.8 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.09x) |
| Combined value Individual source-checked model scenarios are available. The platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld. | — | Combined value withheld. Review the individual models and their assumptions. |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. with Diversified Metals & Mining in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Low.
Next results: November 3, 2026, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $107m and EPS of $0.23 (range $0.21 to $0.25) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $1.31 | +29% | $488m | +26% |
| Next | $1.42 | +9% | $549m | +13% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +3.1% in 90 days, across 10 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −3.6% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 1 analyst raised Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s forecast and 6 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $1.35 | $1.38 |
| 60 days ago | $1.40 | $1.55 |
| 30 days ago | $1.38 | $1.54 |
| 7 days ago | $1.33 | $1.42 |
| Now | $1.31 | $1.42 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.33 | $0.39 | +19.7% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.42 | $0.45 | +6.4% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.32 | $0.33 | +4.1% |
| Sept 2025 | $0.22 | $0.24 | +9.5% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY21 Q4 | $150.4M |
| FY22 Q4 | $151.9M |
| FY23 Q4 | $204M |
| FY24 Q4 | $269M |
| FY25 Q4 | $388.7M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY22 Q4 | 1.0% |
| FY23 Q4 | 34.3% |
| FY24 Q4 | 31.8% |
| FY25 Q4 | 44.5% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY21 Q4 | 45.7% |
| FY22 Q4 | 42.2% |
| FY23 Q4 | 20.1% |
| FY24 Q4 | -6.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | 56.8% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY21 Q4 | 79.5% |
| FY22 Q4 | 77.7% |
| FY23 Q4 | 75.4% |
| FY24 Q4 | 79.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | 80.5% |
Each dollar Triple Flag Precious Metals took in during FY2025, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on research and running the business, and what was left after tax.
| Revenue | $389M | |
|---|---|---|
| Other income | $48.5M | 12.5% of revenue |
| Cost of revenue | $126M | 32.4% of revenue |
| Gross profit | $263M | 67.6% of revenue |
| Research and development | $5.6M | 1.5% of revenue |
| Other operating costs | $36.5M | 9.4% of revenue |
| Operating income | $221M | 56.8% of revenue |
| Income tax | $29.4M | 7.6% of revenue |
| Net income | $240M | 61.7% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||
| Revenue | 150 | 152 | 204 | 269 | 389 |
| Gross profit | 83 | 87 | 102 | 155 | 263 |
| EBITDA | 69 | 64 | 41 | — | — |
| Operating income | 69 | 64 | 41 | −18 | 221 |
| Net income | 46 | 55 | 36 | −23 | 240 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.31 | $0.35 | $0.18 | −$0.11 | $1.18 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||
| Revenue | — | +1.0% | +34.3% | +31.8% | +44.5% |
| EBITDA | — | −6.7% | −35.9% | — | — |
| Operating income | — | −6.7% | −36.2% | −143.9% | — |
| Net income | — | +21.0% | −34.1% | −163.6% | — |
| Diluted EPS | — | +12.9% | −48.6% | −161.1% | — |
| Margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 55.3% | 57.3% | 50.0% | 57.7% | 67.6% |
| EBITDA margin | 46.0% | 42.5% | 20.2% | — | — |
| Operating margin | 45.7% | 42.2% | 20.1% | −6.7% | 56.8% |
| Net margin | 30.3% | 36.3% | 17.8% | −8.6% | 61.7% |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Cash from operations | 120 | 118 | 154 | 214 | 313 |
| Stock-based pay | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet | |||||
| Cash | 41 | 71 | 17 | 36 | 71 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −41 | −71 | 40 | −36 | −71 |
| Diluted shares | 148m | 156m | 200m | 201m | 204m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||
| Dividends | 15 | 30 | 41 | 43 | 46 |
| Buybacks | 2 | 4 | 21 | 9 | 9 |
| Total returned | 17 | 35 | 62 | 52 | 55 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | TFPM | LEU | MP | USAS | CMP | GSM | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $389m | $474m | $305m | $118m | $1.3bn | $1.3bn | $212m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 44.5% | 8.5% | 26.1% | 17.7% | 5.5% | −18.8% | 16.2% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 13.4% | −6.8% | — | 1.9% | — | 13.4% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | 14.0% | 89.0% | — | 0.3% | — | 7.2% |
| Gross margin | 67.6% | 23.7% | — | 28.0% | 17.2% | 27.0% | 25.8% |
| Operating margin | 56.8% | 1.6% | −41.5% | — | 8.9% | −10.0% | −0.5% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | 11.0% | −62.5% | — | 0.1% | −2.0% | −23.9% |
| Net margin | 61.7% | 10.2% | −19.9% | −74.1% | 1.4% | −12.8% | −28.0% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 80.5% | −11.6% | −27.5% | −3.3% | 12.1% | 3.9% | −6.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 80.5% | −34.6% | −165.2% | −62.1% | 6.0% | −0.8% | −34.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | −3.1% | −128.0% | −71.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | −37.2% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 0.1% | 0.2% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 10.2% |
| Change in share count | 1.4% | 29.7% | 8.3% | 152.3% | 1.9% | −0.2% | 7.1% |
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Investment Management L.P. | $4B | 133.2M | 75.9% | 0.0% |
| FMR LLC | $140M | 4.7M | 2.7% | ▼ 21.1% |
| Tidal Investments LLC | $88.4M | 2.9M | 1.7% | ▲ 15.8% |
| Mirae Asset Global Etfs Holdings Ltd. | $82.1M | 2.7M | 1.6% | ▼ 12.1% |
| Van Eck Associates Corp | $70M | 2.3M | 1.3% | ▲ 2.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $60.3M | 2.0M | 1.1% | ▲ 11.4% |
| Whitebox Advisors LLC | $45.5M | 1.5M | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Two Sigma Investments, LP | $41.8M | 1.4M | 0.8% | ▲ 18.8% |
| Dixon Mitchell Investment Counsel Inc. | $38.2M | 1.3M | 0.7% | ▲ 3.3% |
| Beutel, Goodman & Co Ltd. | $35.4M | 1.2M | 0.7% | ▼ 1.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $33.7M | 1.1M | 0.6% | ▲ 50.1% |
| Invesco Ltd. | $31.5M | 1.1M | 0.6% | ▼ 1.6% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 1 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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