TNL Mediagene is a US-listed company in the publishing industry. Its financial year ends in December.
Loading chart…
Third-party market data · may be delayed
~$10
Revenue-to-maturity cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$10–$16 across our lower- and higher-growth cases (0%–5% a year).
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: only 2 valuation models apply; a rating needs 3.
TNL Mediagene valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
Revenue for the twelve months was $45m. Free-cash-flow margin held at -11.2%. The diluted share count is up 40.1% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades E. It passes 1 of our 6 financial-health checks. Our revenue-to-maturity cash-flow model value is $10.34 a share, against a share price of $3.89.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
TNL Mediagene's trailing-twelve-month revenue fell 7.2% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of -11.2%. Where it stands out: long-term debt as % of assets of 7.1% ranks 2 of 7 publishing companies we cover. Where it lags: change in growth rate of -42.5pp ranks 9 of 9 publishing companies we cover.
Current signal Revenue growth decelerating: TTM revenue growth slowed to -7.2% (-42.5pp vs the prior quarter), the 2nd consecutive quarterly slowdown.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
Loading chart…
Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for TNMG from the sources we follow. See filings →
We value TNL Mediagene as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.6%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.81 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | ~$10 ~$10–$16 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: no positive earnings in the latest twelve months |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: the model gives no positive value |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Price-to-sales vs peers Sales per share times peers' typical price-to-sales; used only when earnings are negative. | ~$11 ~$7.4–$41 | Included, half weight |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (revenue-to-maturity model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$11 ~$10–$11 | 2 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare TNL Mediagene with Publishing in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: High.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | — | — | $49m | +10% |
| Next | — | — | $54m | +10% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY22 Q4 | $20M |
| FY23 Q4 | $35.8M |
| FY24 Q4 | $48.5M |
| FY25 Q4 | $45M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY22 Q4 | -17.1% |
| FY23 Q4 | -20.6% |
| FY24 Q4 | -157.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | -110.1% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY22 Q4 | -4.1% |
| FY23 Q4 | -4.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | -21.2% |
| FY25 Q4 | -11.2% |
| Fiscal year | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||
| Revenue | 20 | 36 | 48 | 45 |
| Gross profit | 8 | 13 | 18 | 14 |
| EBITDA | −2 | −5 | −73 | −46 |
| Operating income | −3 | −7 | −76 | −50 |
| Net income | −11 | −1 | −85 | −45 |
| Diluted EPS | −$12.00 | −$0.87 | −$69.27 | −$25.91 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||
| Revenue | — | +79.1% | +35.3% | −7.2% |
| Margins | ||||
| Gross margin | 38.7% | 35.3% | 36.6% | 31.1% |
| EBITDA margin | −9.6% | −12.7% | −150.7% | −102.8% |
| Operating margin | −17.1% | −20.6% | −157.4% | −110.1% |
| Net margin | −55.0% | −2.2% | −175.3% | −99.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −4.1% | −4.2% | −21.2% | −11.2% |
| Cash flow | ||||
| Cash from operations | −1 | −1 | −10 | −5 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −1 | −2 | −10 | −5 |
| Stock-based pay | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −1 | −2 | −11 | −6 |
| Balance sheet | ||||
| Cash | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Total debt | 0 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −4 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| Diluted shares | — | — | 1m | 2m |
| Last 12 months unless stated | TNMG | DJCO | EDUC | LEE | SCHL | WLY | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $45m | $98m | $20m | $517m | $1.6bn | $1.7bn | $1.6bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | −7.2% | 23.4% | −32.0% | −11.1% | −2.5% | −0.3% | −2.5% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 14.7% | −34.2% | −10.5% | −2.0% | −5.6% | −3.8% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | 15.3% | −11.9% | −10.8% | −3.9% | −2.6% | −3.3% |
| Gross margin | 31.1% | — | 60.1% | — | 56.5% | 74.6% | 58.3% |
| Operating margin | −110.1% | 13.7% | — | 4.0% | 1.0% | 14.9% | 4.0% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | 10.0% | — | 2.0% | 1.1% | 11.2% | 6.0% |
| Net margin | −99.0% | −11.6% | 8.6% | −1.8% | 3.6% | 11.9% | 3.6% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | −10.9% | 17.9% | 3.0% | −0.0% | 2.4% | 17.4% | 5.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −11.2% | 17.7% | 0.9% | −0.1% | −0.9% | 14.4% | 2.8% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 12.5% | 7.6% | −0.8% | 2.4% | 10.1% | 7.9% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Change in share count | 40.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 99.6% | −15.7% | −4.2% | 0.1% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | -7.2% | -2.5% | 7 of 9 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -42.5pp | +0.1pp | 9 of 9 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 31.1% | 56.5% | 5 of 5 |
| Operating margin Profitability | -110.1% | 4.0% | 7 of 7 |
| Net margin Profitability | -99.0% | 3.6% | 9 of 9 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | -11.2% | 2.8% | 9 of 9 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 1.1% | 0.6% | 6 of 8 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 7.1% | 12.8% | 2 of 7 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 40.1% | 0.0% | 7 of 8 |
| Days sales outstanding Balance sheet | 57 days | 43 days | 7 of 9 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna International Group, LLP | $6,902 | 11K | 57.7% | New |
| UBS Group AG | $5,048 | 8K | 42.2% | ▲ 585.9% |
| Sbi Securities Co., Ltd. | $5 | 0K | 0.0% | New |
| Caitong International Asset Management Co., Ltd | $1 | 0K | 0.0% | New |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not TNL Mediagene's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
New research on the companies we cover arrives in the weekly email. Free, one email a week.
