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U S Physical Therapy Inc: what the price is pricing in

The price implies cash-flow growth of 11.6% a year; our model expects 11.6%. The gap is too narrow for a position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.

No published rating for U S Physical Therapy Inc: valuation models disagree too widely to rate: held for review. The readings below run our models backwards for research and show how trading the gap would have done; they are not a valuation or a rating. The valuation page shows the models and their status.

What growth in cash flow is the price paying for?

The price implies cash-flow growth of 11.6% a year; our model expects 11.6%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position77 long, 0 short, since June 30, 2012
Beat the S&P 5006 of 785.7% of quarters held
Strategy against the index+50.9%cumulative; worst fall -12.6%
$10,000 became$107,826S&P 500 bought and held: $71,619

Over time

The growth in owner earnings (free cash flow after stock-based pay) that would justify the share price in our discounted-cash-flow model, against the growth the model itself assumes from the company's record.

-5%0%5%10%15% 20122014201620182020202220242026 $24.2$61.8$99.4$137 Long from 2012-06-30Long from 2012-09-30Long from 2012-12-31Long from 2014-09-30Long from 2014-12-31Long from 2015-03-31Long from 2015-09-30
Growth our model assumes Growth the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

$0$50.0k$100k 20122014201620182020202220242026 $108k$71.6k
StrategyS&P 500, buy and hold Hypothetical, before costs. The strategy holds the S&P 500 and only changes on a signal: it switches into USPH in long quarters and adds a short of USPH in short quarters. The gap between the lines is what the signal added or lost.

Skill or luck?

In plain English: With only 7 quarters of positions, U S Physical Therapy Inc's own record is too short to tell skill from luck. The results across all companies on the priced-in page are the better guide.

PositionsQuartersBeat the S&P 500Average vs S&P 500, a quarterTypical (median), a quarterA yearConfidence (t)Evidence
Longs 7 85.7% +6.5% +12.7% +26.5% 1.68 Too few quarters
Shorts 0 — — — — — —
All positions 7 85.7% +6.5% +12.7% +26.5% 1.68 Too few quarters

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (58)
FromPrice paidGrowth the price impliesGrowth our model assumesPositionUSPHS&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open) $85.73 11.6% 11.6% No position −0.2% −0.8%
June 30, 2026 $68.68 8.9% 12.7% No position +25.6% +2.4%
March 31, 2026 $74.96 7.9% 14.3% No position −7.7% +15.1%
December 31, 2025 $78.09 8.8% 14.7% No position −3.4% −4.4%
September 30, 2025 $84.95 10.3% 13.8% No position −7.5% +2.7%
June 30, 2025 $78.20 11.3% 12.5% No position +9.2% +8.1%
March 31, 2025 $72.36 8.6% 10.8% No position +8.7% +10.8%
December 31, 2024 $88.71 10.0% 9.5% No position −17.9% −4.3%
September 30, 2024 $84.63 9.2% 9.1% No position +5.3% +2.5%
June 30, 2024 $92.42 11.5% 10.1% No position −7.9% +5.8%
March 31, 2024 $112.87 12.6% 10.8% No position −17.8% +4.4%
December 31, 2023 $93.14 9.8% 10.3% No position +21.7% +10.4%
September 30, 2023 $91.73 6.6% 10.0% No position +2.0% +11.6%
June 30, 2023 $121.39 10.9% 8.4% No position −24.1% −3.2%
March 31, 2023 $97.91 7.4% 8.2% No position +24.5% +8.7%
December 31, 2022 $81.03 4.5% 7.6% No position +21.4% +7.5%
September 30, 2022 $76.02 3.3% 8.1% No position +7.1% +7.6%
June 30, 2022 $109.20 8.8% 9.1% No position −30.1% −4.9%
March 31, 2022 $99.45 7.6% 9.5% No position +10.3% −16.1%
December 31, 2021 $95.55 5.6% 8.9% No position +4.5% −4.6%
September 30, 2021 $110.60 8.5% 5.1% No position −13.3% +11.1%
June 30, 2021 $115.87 10.8% 4.0% No position −4.2% +0.6%
March 31, 2021 $104.10 8.9% 4.0% No position +11.7% +8.4%
December 31, 2020 $120.25 11.9% 4.0% No position −13.2% +6.3%
September 30, 2020 $86.88 7.1% 2.0% No position +38.4% +12.1%
June 30, 2020 $81.02 7.7% 6.4% No position +7.2% +9.0%
March 31, 2020 $69.00 4.9% 8.4% No position +17.4% +20.2%
December 31, 2019 $114.35 12.9% 8.8% No position −39.5% −19.4%
September 30, 2019 $130.55 13.2% 9.7% No position −12.2% +9.0%
June 30, 2019 $122.57 11.3% 9.7% No position +6.8% +1.8%
March 31, 2019 $105.03 8.2% 10.3% No position +17.0% +4.2%
December 31, 2018 $102.35 8.2% 11.9% No position +2.9% +13.5%
September 30, 2018 $118.60 12.0% 12.7% No position −13.5% −13.5%
June 30, 2018 $96.00 8.2% 13.2% No position +23.8% +7.7%
March 31, 2018 $81.30 7.0% 13.4% No position +18.4% +3.5%
December 31, 2017 $72.20 3.9% 11.3% No position +12.9% −1.0%
September 30, 2017 $61.45 3.3% 10.0% No position +17.8% +6.8%
June 30, 2017 $60.40 1.9% 9.2% No position +2.1% +4.4%
March 31, 2017 $65.30 4.7% 9.1% No position −6.9% +3.1%
December 31, 2016 $70.20 5.0% 9.9% No position −7.0% +5.9%
September 30, 2016 $62.70 3.0% 10.3% No position +12.3% +4.0%
June 30, 2016 $60.21 2.7% 9.9% No position +4.4% +3.8%
March 31, 2016 $49.73 1.0% 9.2% No position +21.4% +2.5%
December 31, 2015 $53.68 2.5% 9.7% No position −7.0% +1.3%
September 30, 2015 $44.89 -0.7% 10.7% Long +19.9% +7.0%
June 30, 2015 $54.76 2.3% 12.1% No position −17.8% −6.4%
March 31, 2015 $47.50 0.2% 12.2% Long +15.6% +0.2%
December 31, 2014 $41.96 0.1% 11.4% Long +13.6% +0.9%
September 30, 2014 $35.39 -2.4% 9.6% Long +18.9% +4.9%
June 30, 2014 $34.19 -1.3% 7.9% No position +3.9% +1.1%
March 31, 2014 $34.57 -1.4% 5.8% No position −0.7% +5.2%
December 31, 2013 $35.26 -0.6% 4.0% No position −1.6% +1.7%
September 30, 2013 $31.08 -3.1% 3.5% No position +13.8% +10.5%
June 30, 2013 $27.64 -4.1% 3.5% No position +12.8% +5.2%
March 31, 2013 $26.85 -4.5% 5.3% No position +3.4% +2.9%
December 31, 2012 $27.54 -3.7% 8.0% Long −2.1% +10.5%
September 30, 2012 $27.63 -2.5% 9.9% Long +0.0% −0.4%
June 30, 2012 $25.43 -2.9% 11.3% Long +9.0% +6.3%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from U S Physical Therapy Inc's quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

Head to head: CRVL vs USPHINNV vs USPHPNTG vs USPHSTLN vs USPH

More: Health Care Services stocks compared, Health Care sector, rankings of US companies

Figures from U S Physical Therapy Inc's SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved October 29, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to U S Physical Therapy Inc.