Yalla Group Ltd is a US-listed company in the interactive media & services industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
~$17
Cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$13–$21 across our lower- and higher-growth cases (-2.6%–7.4% a year).
Undervalued
The price is below our entire value range; our base value is 199% above it.
Price used: $5.58, November 3, 2026
Yalla Group Ltd valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $342m, up 0.7% on a year earlier, slower than the 6.5% growth a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin fell to 39.6% from 52.3% a year earlier. Operating margin widened to 35.7% from 30.4%. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades B. It passes 2 of our 2 financial-health checks. Our cash-flow model value is $16.66 a share, against a share price of $5.49.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Yalla Group Ltd's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 0.7% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 39.6%. Where it stands out: operating margin of 35.7% ranks 2 of 63 interactive media & services companies we cover. Where it lags: change in growth rate of -5.9pp ranks 53 of 63 interactive media & services companies we cover.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$17 per share in the base case (~$13–$21 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow fell 21.2% while net income grew 10.4%: a 32pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for YALA from the sources we follow. See filings →
The share price implies cash flow shrinking more than 30% a year in our model.
Our cash-flow model with every input fixed except growth over the next five years, solved for the growth at which the model value equals the share price ($5.58, Nov 3, 2026). Cash-flow growth then fades to 2.5% a year; discount rate 8.5%. Delivered figures are revenue growth from SEC filings. This is a model exercise, not investment advice or a forecast of the share price. All companies
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of Yalla Group Ltd's free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $138M, FY2025 Q4 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
We value Yalla Group Ltd as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 9.5%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.02 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow to the firm (after stock pay, with after-tax interest added back), grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5% as the firm rate, less debt and other claims. | ~$17 ~$13–$21 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$1.2 ~$5.1–$16 | Left out: far from the other models (more than 3x away from their median) |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$14 ~$11–$19 | Included |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$14 ~$12–$16 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (cash-flow model (dcf)) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$15 ~$14–$17 | 3 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Yalla Group Ltd with Interactive Media & Services in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| Discount rate ↓ / growth → | −5% growth | 0% growth | 5% growth | 10% growth | 15% growth | 20% growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | $15 | $19 | $24 | $31 | $40 | $51 |
| 8.5% | $12 | $15 | $19 | $24 | $30 | $38 |
| 10% | $11 | $13 | $16 | $19 | $24 | $31 |
| At fiscal year end | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share price | $14.33 | $6.71 | $3.50 | $6.13 | $4.06 | $6.94 |
| Market value | $2.6bn | $1.2bn | $618m | $1.1bn | $744m | $1.2bn |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | −$237m | −$351m | −$407m | −$312m | −$488m | −$527m |
| Enterprise value | $2.4bn | $856m | $211m | $803m | $255m | $723m |
| Multiples | ||||||
| Price / sales | 19.5x | 4.4x | 2.0x | 3.5x | 2.2x | 3.7x |
| Price / earnings | n/m | 14.6x | 7.8x | 9.9x | 5.5x | 8.4x |
| Price / free cash flow | 41.2x | 8.5x | 5.2x | 8.1x | 4.3x | 9.2x |
| EV / EBITDA | n/m | 10.2x | 2.6x | 8.2x | 2.1x | 5.8x |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
Next results: November 9, 2026. Analysts expect revenue of $87m for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $0.80 | −10% | $342m | 0% |
| Next | $0.96 | +20% | $383m | +12% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +9.7% in 90 days, across 1 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −11.1% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 0 analysts raised Yalla Group Ltd's forecast and 1 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $0.90 | $0.88 |
| 60 days ago | $0.90 | $0.88 |
| 30 days ago | $0.90 | $0.88 |
| 7 days ago | $0.90 | $0.88 |
| Now | $0.80 | $0.96 |
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| YALA | −53% | −48% | +75% | −34% | +71% | −21% |
| Industry peers (median) | −25% | −54% | −6% | −19% | −16% | −27% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| YALA | 33% | 33% | 67% | 17% | 42% | 55% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| YALA | −85% | −56% | −37% | −39% | −25% | −31% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since September 30, 2020: 92% from February 11, 2021 to October 24, 2022. Getting back needed a 1219% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
How Yalla Group Ltd’s listed options are priced, and three ways to use them that follow from our valuation. Quotes are delayed, read November 2, 2026. Check the live chain at your broker before trading.
Not offered: fundamentals grade B (needs B+ or better).
We suggest selling a put only on well-rated companies, at a strike where the price you would pay if assigned (strike less premium) is at or below our fair value.
Not offered: no liquid call at or above our price target — the model says the upside is worth more than any listed strike.
For holders: sell a call at a strike at or above our fair value, so the shares are only sold at a price the model calls full value.
Not offered: the shares trade below our fair value: a collar caps upside the model expects.
For holders of a stock trading at or above our fair value: buy a put for a floor and sell a call to pay for it.
General research, not personal advice. Options can lose you more than you expect and are not suitable for everyone: put sellers can be made to buy shares that keep falling, call sellers give up gains above the strike, and results or news can move prices sharply. Chances shown are approximations from each option’s delta. Spreads, fees and early assignment are not modelled.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY18 Q4 | $42.4M |
| FY19 Q4 | $63.5M |
| FY20 Q4 | $134.9M |
| FY21 Q4 | $273.1M |
| FY22 Q4 | $303.6M |
| FY23 Q4 | $318.9M |
| FY24 Q4 | $339.7M |
| FY25 Q4 | $341.9M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY19 Q4 | 49.8% |
| FY20 Q4 | 112.6% |
| FY21 Q4 | 102.4% |
| FY22 Q4 | 11.2% |
| FY23 Q4 | 5.0% |
| FY24 Q4 | 6.5% |
| FY25 Q4 | 0.7% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY18 Q4 | 48.0% |
| FY19 Q4 | 45.6% |
| FY20 Q4 | 2.8% |
| FY21 Q4 | 30.4% |
| FY22 Q4 | 25.9% |
| FY23 Q4 | 30.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | 35.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | 35.7% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY18 Q4 | 54.7% |
| FY19 Q4 | 48.6% |
| FY20 Q4 | 47.3% |
| FY21 Q4 | 52.3% |
| FY22 Q4 | 38.9% |
| FY23 Q4 | 43.3% |
| FY24 Q4 | 50.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | 39.6% |
Each dollar Yalla Group took in during FY2025, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on research and running the business, and what was left after tax.
| Revenue | $342M | |
|---|---|---|
| Other income | $29.9M | 8.7% of revenue |
| Cost of revenue | $112M | 32.7% of revenue |
| Gross profit | $230M | 67.3% of revenue |
| Research and development | $34.3M | 10.0% of revenue |
| Selling, general and admin | $73.5M | 21.5% of revenue |
| Operating income | $122M | 35.7% of revenue |
| Income tax | $4M | 1.2% of revenue |
| Net income | $148M | 43.3% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 42 | 63 | 135 | 273 | 304 | 319 | 340 | 342 |
| Gross profit | 29 | 43 | 74 | 178 | 190 | 204 | 219 | 230 |
| EBITDA | 20 | 29 | 4 | 84 | 80 | 98 | 122 | 124 |
| Operating income | 20 | 29 | 4 | 83 | 79 | 96 | 121 | 122 |
| Net income | 20 | 29 | 3 | 83 | 79 | 113 | 134 | 148 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.06 | $0.11 | −$0.01 | $0.46 | $0.45 | $0.65 | $0.74 | $0.83 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | — | +49.8% | +112.6% | +102.4% | +11.2% | +5.0% | +6.5% | +0.7% |
| EBITDA | — | +42.9% | −86.2% | +>999% | −4.9% | +22.9% | +24.8% | +1.0% |
| Operating income | — | +42.2% | −87.0% | +>999% | −5.2% | +22.4% | +26.0% | +0.7% |
| Net income | — | +42.9% | −88.9% | +>999% | −4.3% | +43.0% | +18.7% | +10.4% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | −109.1% | — | −2.2% | +44.4% | +13.8% | +12.2% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Gross margin | 67.3% | 67.6% | 54.6% | 65.2% | 62.5% | 64.1% | 64.5% | 67.3% |
| EBITDA margin | 48.1% | 45.9% | 3.0% | 30.7% | 26.3% | 30.8% | 36.1% | 36.2% |
| Operating margin | 48.0% | 45.6% | 2.8% | 30.4% | 25.9% | 30.2% | 35.7% | 35.7% |
| Net margin | 47.8% | 45.6% | 2.4% | 30.2% | 26.0% | 35.5% | 39.5% | 43.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 54.7% | 48.6% | 47.3% | 52.3% | 38.9% | 43.3% | 50.7% | 39.6% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 23 | 31 | 65 | 144 | 120 | 139 | 173 | 138 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Free cash flow | 23 | 31 | 64 | 143 | 118 | 138 | 172 | 136 |
| Stock-based pay | — | — | 61 | 44 | 27 | 18 | 15 | 10 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | — | — | 3 | 99 | 91 | 120 | 157 | 125 |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||
| Cash | 17 | 45 | 237 | 351 | 407 | 312 | 488 | 527 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −17 | −45 | −237 | −351 | −407 | −312 | −488 | −527 |
| Diluted shares | 147m | 147m | 184m | 180m | 177m | 182m | 183m | 180m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||
| Dividends | — | — | 9 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Buybacks | — | — | — | 25 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 57 |
| Total returned | — | — | 9 | 25 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 57 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | YALA | IBTA | SCOR | MKTW | ZH | SMWB | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $342m | $343m | $347m | $318m | $383m | $283m | $615m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 0.7% | −6.6% | −3.2% | −11.3% | −23.5% | 13.1% | 2.4% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | — | −2.7% | −12.7% | — | — | 5.0% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | 3.3% | −11.3% | −5.2% | — | — | 2.4% |
| Gross margin | 67.3% | 78.2% | 38.9% | 86.2% | 59.9% | 79.5% | 60.4% |
| Operating margin | 35.7% | −3.5% | −2.4% | 8.1% | −18.5% | −8.3% | 0.3% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | 4.7% | −8.8% | 14.2% | — | — | −0.4% |
| Net margin | 43.3% | −3.2% | −5.1% | 0.7% | −7.0% | −11.7% | 3.8% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 40.2% | 27.2% | 6.0% | 14.7% | −13.2% | 5.2% | 11.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 39.6% | 21.7% | 5.7% | 14.4% | −13.3% | 4.7% | 7.5% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 23.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | — | — | 7.2% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 3.0% | 15.4% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 7.5% | 3.7% |
| Change in share count | −1.7% | −11.0% | 103.3% | 19.6% | −12.3% | 4.9% | 2.0% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 0.7% | 2.4% | 38 of 63 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -5.9pp | -0.2pp | 53 of 63 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 67.3% | 60.9% | 26 of 54 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 35.7% | 0.3% | 2 of 63 |
| Net margin Profitability | 43.3% | 3.8% | 4 of 63 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | 39.6% | 8.9% | 3 of 59 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 3.0% | 3.9% | 21 of 61 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -1.7% | 1.7% | 18 of 55 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acadian Asset Management LLC | $23.3M | 4.2M | 22.1% | ▲ 0.8% |
| Fil Ltd | $21.4M | 3.9M | 20.4% | ▲ 9.6% |
| Susquehanna International Group, LLP | $11M | 2.0M | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| Arrowstreet Capital, Limited Partnership | $6.8M | 1.2M | 6.4% | ▼ 5.0% |
| Seizert Capital Partners, LLC | $5.9M | 1.1M | 5.6% | ▲ 44.9% |
| State Street Corp | $4.6M | 836K | 4.4% | ▼ 42.0% |
| Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. | $4.1M | 742K | 3.9% | ▼ 23.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $4M | 722K | 3.8% | ▼ 1.6% |
| Thompson Siegel & Walmsley LLC | $3.1M | 574K | 3.0% | ▲ 8.9% |
| BNP Paribas Financial Markets | $3.1M | 567K | 3.0% | ▼ 11.4% |
| Renaissance Technologies LLC | $1.8M | 335K | 1.7% | ▼ 11.4% |
| Barclays PLC | $1.6M | 296K | 1.5% | ▼ 75.4% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Yalla Group Ltd's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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