undamentalytics Newsletter

Congress: members

Adam Smith

Backtest from 18 Apr 2016 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+6.7%
S&P 500 +14.8%
Last 12 months
−14.4%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.29
S&P 500 0.76
Biggest drop
−40.0%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k 201620182020202220242026 $42.8k$19.9k
Adam SmithS&P 500 $10,000 in Adam Smith from 18 Apr 2016 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Adam Smith (Democrat, WA) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Adam Smith's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+6.7%+14.8%
Total return+99%+328%
Last 12 months−14.4%+12.1%
Last 3 months+15.5%—
Last month+15.2%—
This year so far−14.3%—
Volatility a year26.3%16.7%
Sharpe ratio0.290.76
Biggest drop−40.0%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5000.911.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−4.0% (−0.61)—
Share of weeks up53%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 17 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
IBM100.0%18 Apr 2016+171.6%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest18 Apr 2016 to 2 Nov 2026+6.7%+14.8%0.290.76−40.0%0.91−4.0% (−0.61)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+6.5%+13.9%0.270.66−37.8%0.90−3.2% (−0.43)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+15.1%+21.8%0.471.16−30.3%0.94−0.7% (−0.04)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026−14.3%+14.2%−0.140.84−30.3%1.21−19.0% (−0.40)
DateCompanyAction
21 Apr 2025UPSBought
5 Apr 2023WYBought
5 Apr 2023UPSBought
5 Apr 2023UNPBought
5 Apr 2023TSLABought
5 Apr 2023RSGBought
5 Apr 2023PGBought
5 Apr 2023PCARBought
5 Apr 2023NEMBought
5 Apr 2023MSFTBought
5 Apr 2023GOOGLBought
5 Apr 2023DISBought
5 Apr 2023DEBought
5 Apr 2023CVSBought
5 Apr 2023CBought
5 Apr 2023BRK.BBought
5 Apr 2023ALKBought
5 Apr 2023AAPLBought
18 Apr 2016IBMBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
11 Aug 2025WYSold
11 Aug 2025UPSSold
11 Aug 2025UNPSold
11 Aug 2025TSLASold
11 Aug 2025RSGSold
11 Aug 2025PGSold
11 Aug 2025PCARSold
11 Aug 2025NEMSold
11 Aug 2025MSFTSold
11 Aug 2025GOOGLSold
11 Aug 2025DISSold
11 Aug 2025DESold
11 Aug 2025CVSSold
11 Aug 2025CSold
11 Aug 2025BRK.BSold
11 Aug 2025ALKSold
11 Aug 2025AAPLSold
2 May 2024UPSSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest