undamentalytics Newsletter

Congress: members

Cheri Bustos

Backtest from 1 Jul 2016 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+3.9%
S&P 500 +15.0%
Last 12 months
+77.4%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.19
S&P 500 0.77
Biggest drop
−64.3%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k 201620182020202220242026 $42.4k$14.8k
Cheri BustosS&P 500 $10,000 in Cheri Bustos from 1 Jul 2016 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Cheri Bustos (Democrat, IL) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Cheri Bustos's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+3.9%+15.0%
Total return+48%+324%
Last 12 months+77.4%+12.1%
Last 3 months+10.3%—
Last month+1.4%—
This year so far+63.2%—
Volatility a year27.8%16.8%
Sharpe ratio0.190.77
Biggest drop−64.3%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5000.901.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−6.3% (−0.87)—
Share of weeks up55%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 32 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
TGT100.0%9 Mar 2020+82.0%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest1 Jul 2016 to 2 Nov 2026+3.9%+15.0%0.190.77−64.3%0.90−6.3% (−0.87)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+2.0%+13.9%0.120.66−64.3%0.90−7.0% (−0.85)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+16.1%+21.8%0.491.16−49.1%0.55+6.3% (0.35)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+81.9%+14.2%2.190.84−7.7%0.05+58.5% (2.14)
DateCompanyAction
9 Mar 2020TGTBought
11 Nov 2019MSFTBought
11 Nov 2019MABought
11 Nov 2019LHXBought
11 Nov 2019DISBought
11 Nov 2019CMCSABought
11 Nov 2019AMZNBought
5 Nov 2018BRK.BBought
7 Jun 2018FTVBought
16 May 2017EOGBought
16 May 2017AAPLBought
1 Jul 2016ZBHBought
1 Jul 2016ULTABought
1 Jul 2016EXPEBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
4 Aug 2021MASold
4 Aug 2021LHXSold
4 Aug 2021AMZNSold
20 May 2020MSFTSold
20 May 2020BRK.BSold
9 Mar 2020DISSold
9 Mar 2020CMCSASold
11 Nov 2019ULTASold
11 Nov 2019EXPESold
11 Nov 2019EOGSold
11 Nov 2019AAPLSold
6 May 2019FTVSold
10 Feb 2017ZBHSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest