undamentalytics Newsletter

Congress: members

Van Taylor

Backtest from 19 Feb 2019 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+18.3%
S&P 500 +15.6%
Last 12 months
+50.3%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.77
S&P 500 0.73
Biggest drop
−39.2%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k 20192020202120222023202420252026 $36.5k$30.5k
Van TaylorS&P 500 $10,000 in Van Taylor from 19 Feb 2019 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Van Taylor (Republican, TX) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Van Taylor's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+18.3%+15.6%
Total return+265%+205%
Last 12 months+50.3%+12.1%
Last 3 months+15.0%—
Last month+12.7%—
This year so far+36.8%—
Volatility a year20.9%18.0%
Sharpe ratio0.770.73
Biggest drop−39.2%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5000.641.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)+7.6% (1.21)—
Share of weeks up58%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 310 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
XOM53.0%16 Aug 2021+285.3%
LLY22.0%16 Aug 2021+444.8%
FDX3.5%14 Aug 2019+191.7%
WMT2.9%16 Aug 2021+169.5%
CVX2.4%14 Aug 2020+231.2%
MCD2.3%16 Aug 2021+23.9%
MXC2.2%14 Aug 2019+172.4%
BMY2.1%16 Aug 2021+13.0%
JNJ1.9%14 Aug 2020+115.9%
WPC1.8%14 Aug 2019+14.5%
CL1.3%14 Aug 2019+64.0%
PG1.2%14 Aug 2020+42.5%
KMB0.9%14 Aug 2020−12.9%
CHDN0.9%14 Aug 2019+73.3%
YUM0.6%14 Aug 2019+55.8%
PEP0.5%14 Aug 2020+24.5%
AXS0.5%14 Aug 2019+104.1%
RNGR0.1%15 Aug 2022+67.7%
VOD0.0%16 Aug 2021+31.3%
VZ0.0%16 Aug 2021+12.2%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest19 Feb 2019 to 2 Nov 2026+18.3%+15.6%0.770.73−39.2%0.64+7.6% (1.21)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+21.4%+21.8%0.971.16−14.8%0.13+14.1% (1.45)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+47.2%+14.2%2.020.84−8.0%−0.66+42.5% (2.62)
DateCompanyAction
15 Aug 2022RNGRBought
16 Aug 2021XOMBought
16 Aug 2021WMTBought
16 Aug 2021VZBought
16 Aug 2021VODBought
16 Aug 2021MCDBought
16 Aug 2021LLYBought
16 Aug 2021BMYBought
14 Aug 2020YUMCBought
14 Aug 2020WABBought
14 Aug 2020PGBought
14 Aug 2020PEPBought
14 Aug 2020OXYBought
14 Aug 2020KOBought
14 Aug 2020KMBBought
14 Aug 2020JNJBought
14 Aug 2020CVXBought
10 Dec 2019XOMBought
14 Aug 2019ZBHBought
14 Aug 2019YUMBought
14 Aug 2019WPCBought
14 Aug 2019WMTBought
14 Aug 2019MXCBought
14 Aug 2019MCOBought
14 Aug 2019MCDBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
27 Dec 2022ZBHSold
27 Dec 2022OXYSold
27 Dec 2022MCOSold
15 Aug 2022KOSold
16 Aug 2021YUMCSold
16 Aug 2021WABSold
14 Aug 2020PPLSold
14 Aug 2020CRSold
14 Aug 2020ALGNSold
14 Aug 2020AAPSold
11 Jun 2020BMYSold
14 Apr 2020WMTSold
14 Apr 2020MCDSold
14 Apr 2020GPCSold
14 Apr 2020GESold
8 Jan 2020XOMSold
18 Jun 2019XOMSold
16 Apr 2019VSold
16 Apr 2019UPSSold
16 Apr 2019SOSold
16 Apr 2019SCHWSold
16 Apr 2019PYPLSold
16 Apr 2019PORSold
16 Apr 2019PMSold
16 Apr 2019PGSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest