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Quiver method A (replicated)

Insider buying: Dollar value bought, all $300m+

Backtest from 30 Apr 2010 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+8.3%
S&P 500 +13.8%
Last 12 months
+8.9%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.36
S&P 500 0.79
Biggest drop
−59.3%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k$80.0k 201020122014201620182020202220242026 $85.2k$37.3k
StrategyS&P 500 $10,000 in Insider buying: Dollar value bought, all $300m+ from 30 Apr 2010 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes.

About

Each month, buys the companies whose insiders (officers, directors, large holders) made the largest open-market purchases, by the rule in the label, using only Form 4 filings already public at the rebalance. Costs of 10 basis points a trade are deducted.

Insider backtests →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+8.3%+13.8%
Total return+273%+752%
Last 12 months+8.9%+12.1%
Last 3 months+5.3%—
Last month+2.9%—
This year so far+5.3%—
Volatility a year29.2%16.1%
Sharpe ratio0.360.79
Biggest drop−59.3%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5001.251.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−5.2% (−1.00)—
Share of weeks up53%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
AAT10.0%——
AVO10.0%——
BABA10.0%——
CRBG10.0%——
CV10.0%——
FTK10.0%——
GME10.0%——
GPI10.0%——
JEF10.0%——
RSG10.0%——

Equal weight at the latest rebalance, rebuilt every month.

PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest30 Apr 2010 to 2 Nov 2026+8.3%+13.8%0.360.79−59.3%1.25−5.2% (−1.00)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+5.8%+13.9%0.250.66−59.3%1.28−6.4% (−0.73)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+36.0%+21.8%0.871.16−25.9%1.36+10.9% (0.57)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+15.4%+14.2%0.480.84−25.9%1.19+3.9% (0.13)
DateCompanyAction
30 Oct 2026JEFBought
30 Oct 2026GPIBought
30 Oct 2026GMEBought
30 Oct 2026FTKBought
30 Oct 2026CVBought
30 Oct 2026CRBGBought
30 Sept 2026IFFBought
30 Sept 2026ENRBought
30 Sept 2026CGONBought
30 Sept 2026BABABought
30 Sept 2026AATBought
31 Aug 2026WGSBought
31 Aug 2026TXOBought
31 Aug 2026SMMTBought
31 Aug 2026RSGBought
31 Aug 2026RIVNBought
31 Aug 2026NMMBought
31 Aug 2026NCLHBought
31 Aug 2026GOLDBought
31 Aug 2026AVOBought
31 Aug 2026ALKTBought

Dated at the rebalance that made the change.

DateCompanyAction
30 Oct 2026SMMTSold
30 Oct 2026NMMSold
30 Oct 2026NCLHSold
30 Oct 2026IFFSold
30 Oct 2026ENRSold
30 Oct 2026CGONSold
30 Sept 2026WGSSold
30 Sept 2026TXOSold
30 Sept 2026RIVNSold
30 Sept 2026GOLDSold
30 Sept 2026ALKTSold

Dated at the rebalance that made the change.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest