Quiver method B (replicated)
Insider buying: Conviction model, all $300m+
Backtest from 4 Jan 2013 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical
- Return a year
- +6.2% S&P 500 +14.5%
- Last 12 months
- +7.5% S&P 500 +12.1%
- Sharpe ratio
- 0.29 S&P 500 0.82
- Biggest drop
- −65.2% S&P 500 −31.8%
About
Scores every insider purchase with a model of the trade, the insider and the company, fitted each year on earlier years only, and holds the best-scoring companies. Costs of 10 basis points a trade are deducted.
Key statistics
| Measure | Strategy | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Return a year (compound) | +6.2% | +14.5% |
| Total return | +129% | +552% |
| Last 12 months | +7.5% | +12.1% |
| Last 3 months | −4.0% | — |
| Last month | +3.5% | — |
| This year so far | −2.2% | — |
| Volatility a year | 30.6% | 15.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.29 | 0.82 |
| Biggest drop | −65.2% | −31.8% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.39 | 1.00 |
| Alpha a year (t-statistic) | −9.0% (−1.56) | — |
| Share of weeks up | 52% | — |
Insights
| Period | Return a year | S&P 500 | Sharpe | S&P 500 | Biggest drop | Beta | Alpha (t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whole backtest4 Jan 2013 to 2 Nov 2026 | +6.2% | +14.5% | 0.29 | 0.82 | −65.2% | 1.39 | −9.0% (−1.56) |
| 2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026 | +5.6% | +13.9% | 0.25 | 0.66 | −65.2% | 1.39 | −7.9% (−1.00) |
| Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026 | +10.8% | +21.8% | 0.35 | 1.16 | −28.8% | 0.97 | −6.5% (−0.49) |
| Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026 | +13.7% | +14.2% | 0.53 | 0.84 | −14.9% | 0.50 | +5.9% (0.30) |
| Date | Company | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov 2026 | XYL | Bought |
| 2 Nov 2026 | MSM | Bought |
| 2 Nov 2026 | LRN | Bought |
| 2 Nov 2026 | CRNC | Bought |
| 26 Oct 2026 | TNC | Bought |
| 26 Oct 2026 | HLMN | Bought |
| 26 Oct 2026 | FUL | Bought |
| 26 Oct 2026 | DFIN | Bought |
| 19 Oct 2026 | REZI | Bought |
| 19 Oct 2026 | OXM | Bought |
| 19 Oct 2026 | MTDR | Bought |
| 19 Oct 2026 | MATW | Bought |
| 19 Oct 2026 | GRNT | Bought |
| 19 Oct 2026 | GME | Bought |
| 19 Oct 2026 | FOSL | Bought |
| 19 Oct 2026 | BABA | Bought |
| 19 Oct 2026 | AMR | Bought |
| 19 Oct 2026 | ALK | Bought |