Donna Shalala: stock trades

Activity

Would copying Donna Shalala’s trades have beaten the S&P 500?

Copying Donna Shalala’s disclosed holdings (starting from the holdings in each annual disclosure report once it was published, then adding purchases and taking off sales as each trade report became public, sized by the amounts reported, with call options counted as the stock until they expired) would have turned $10,000 on April 28, 2020 into $23,548 by November 2, 2026, against $28,947 in the S&P 500: +14.1% a year against +17.8%, with a beta of 1.00. Selling each purchase after 6 months instead would have made +1.3% a year. Six months after each report, the average share purchase was −3.2% against the S&P 500 (median −11.0%), and 39% beat it, too few months of reports to tell skill from luck. Measured from the trade date instead, the member’s own timing, the average was −6.3%. Reports arrived a median of 342 days after the trade. 92 purchases had already been sold in full by the time they were reported, so a follower could not copy them; the averages below still count every purchase.

Return a year, copying

+14.1%

S&P 500, same dates

+17.8%

Yearly swing (S&P 500)

21% (17%)

Sharpe ratio (S&P 500)

0.59 (0.87)

Biggest drop (S&P 500)

−25% (−25%)

Market sensitivity (beta)

1.00

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic treats each trade as a separate bet; the Evidence label is stricter and uses one average per month of reports, because trades bunch together. Trades in companies we cover only. The averages count share trades; the copy portfolio also counts call options as the stock and sizes positions by the middle of each band filed. No trading costs or taxes. These are the stocks’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Donna Shalala traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every member compares.

Stocks traded

Every company we cover that appears in the reports. “Since first purchase” is the stock’s move from the close on the member’s first disclosed purchase to the latest close, against the S&P 500; it is not the member’s return.

The 60 most traded of 187 companies.

Trades in companies we cover

“Stock since trade” is the share price move from the close on the trade date to the latest close, with the gap to the S&P 500 beneath. It describes the stock, not what the member made. Showing the latest 300 of 334 trades; every trade is in the reports below. Click a column heading to sort.

Filings

• Report filed Jul 21, 2020 2 stock or option trades
• Report filed Jun 23, 2020 2 stock or option trades · LEN
• Report filed May 15, 2020 6 stock or option trades · LEN, TEVA, WSO
• Report filed Apr 27, 2020 554 stock or option trades · AOS, ABM, AYI, ADUS, AMD, AGCO, ALK, ALLE, AMBA, ABEV, AMCX, AMH