Every company in our coverage universe tells investors it is an AI company. Their cash flow statements disagree about what that means. We computed trailing-twelve-month capital-expenditure intensity (capex as a share of revenue) and free-cash-flow margin for all four companies from their SEC filings: Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA and Adobe. The result is not a spectrum. It is one outlier and three bystanders.
The finding
Microsoft now spends 34.9% of revenue on capital expenditure. Apple spends 2.2%, NVIDIA 2.4%, Adobe 0.8%. One of the four is physically building the AI infrastructure layer; the other three are, in cash terms, barely participating in the construction.
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts; latest TTM window per company (June–August 2026 period ends).
View chart data
| Period | Capex / revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| MSFT | 34.9% |
| NVDA | 2.4% |
| AAPL | 2.2% |
| ADBE | 0.8% |
What it did to free cash flow
The free-cash-flow consequences follow directly, and they have now fully diverged:
| Company (latest TTM) | Revenue growth | Capex / revenue | FCF margin | FCF margin YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | +17.8% | 34.9% | 20.2% | −5.2pp |
| Apple | +14.2% | 2.2% | 29.3% | +5.7pp |
| NVIDIA | +83.4% | 2.4% | 41.9% | −1.7pp |
| Adobe | +12.0% | 0.8% | 40.8% | −0.6pp |
Microsoft's FCF margin of 20.2% is the lowest reading in the seventeen years of its filings we analyse, down 5.2pp in a year, driven by $115.9B of capex (up 79.6%). Apple's moved the opposite direction: up 5.7pp to 29.3%, the 87th percentile of its own history, as free cash flow grew 42.1% while Apple's own capex fell 18.9%.
That last pair of numbers is the under-reported story. Apple, routinely framed as the AI laggard, is so far the cash-flow winner of the cycle: accelerating revenue (+14.2%), expanding margins, shrinking capital intensity. Whatever AI capability Apple ships, it is currently renting or deferring the infrastructure cost others are capitalising.
NVIDIA sits in a third position: it neither pays the buildout cost nor avoids the cycle. It is the buildout's revenue line. Revenue grew 83.4% and its FCF margin of 41.9% (down just 1.7pp) is roughly double Microsoft's, on capex intensity of 2.4%. The sellers of infrastructure are converting the cycle into cash at twice the rate of its biggest builder.
The pattern, stated plainly
In this four-company universe, light spenders and sellers currently keep roughly 40 cents of every revenue dollar as free cash (NVIDIA 41.9%, Adobe 40.8%); the integrated builder keeps 20. A year ago the four companies' FCF margins were clustered far more tightly. The AI cycle hasn't lifted or sunk these businesses together. It has sorted them into builders, bystanders and sellers, and the cash flow statements now price those roles very differently.
What it means for value
Translated into our discounted-cash-flow model, the divergence is large. Microsoft's past-year margin fall, if it persists, lowers its model value by 20.6%. Apple's margin gain, if it holds, raises its model value by 24.6%. The same AI cycle has moved the two companies' intrinsic values by similar amounts in opposite directions, before any change in growth expectations. These are model values under stated assumptions, not comparisons with share prices.
What this does not tell us
Four companies is a screen, not a census: this is our full current coverage universe, deliberately small, and the pattern should be re-tested as coverage expands. Capex is also an investment, not a loss. If Microsoft's infrastructure earns strong returns, today's divergence reverses into tomorrow's advantage, and Apple's capital-light posture becomes a strategic deficit rather than a cash-flow virtue. The filings show who is paying for the buildout; it cannot show who will be paid back.
Bottom line
Follow the cash, not the keynotes. On SEC-filed numbers, the AI buildout's cost sits almost entirely in one of these four balance sheets, free-cash-flow margins that moved together for a decade have split by 20 points of revenue, and the companies collecting the cycle's cash are not the one constructing it.
