On Holding AG reports on Tuesday 10 November, before the market opens. The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is $0.40, with an average revenue estimate of $931.0 million. The report will test whether the 38.1% year-on-year revenue growth is converting into profit.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $0.43 | $0.27 |
| Dec '25 | $0.25 | $0.21 |
| Mar '26 | $0.37 | $0.27 |
| Jun '26 | $0.35 | $0.34 |
The value hinges on margins more than growth
The quarterly estimates span a range from $0.34 to $0.52. For the full year, the average EPS estimate is $1.43, up 78.9% on last year, based on 30 analysts. That figure has risen 1.2% over the past 90 days. Of the recommendations, 25 are positive, 5 neutral and 1 negative.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land 14.0% above the analysts' average estimate, with an estimated chance of a beat of 75.0%. The model is based on the last 4 quarters; it shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and applies a neutral prior for beat frequency. This is a reference estimate from a small sample, not company guidance.
On Holding AG's record against estimates
The company has reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in each of the last four quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.35 came in above the estimate of $0.34 by 3.3%. That record is the basis for the model's beat probability.
Profit is lagging sales
Revenue growth is accelerating: the rate was up 6.2 percentage points on the quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin stands at 62.8%, and the operating margin has improved to 12.5%, up 3.4 percentage points from a year earlier. Yet the net margin is 6.8%, and net income over the twelve months was $245.9 million, down 10.7% on the year before. Revenue and operating performance are improving while bottom-line profit is declining.
Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $433.9 million, down 25.2% on the year before. Capital spending was $88.0 million, or 2.4% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $345.9 million, down 32.3%. The free-cash-flow margin was 9.5% of revenue, down 9.9 percentage points from a year earlier. Cash generation is declining even as revenue grows.
Questions this report will answer
The report will answer whether the acceleration in revenue growth continues, whether the quarter's results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels described.
What On Holding AG's share price implies against our model
In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 22.1%, while growth 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 28.2%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower the value by 9.2%. The upside sensitivity exceeds the downside for a symmetric change in growth.
