Selective Insurance Group Inc filed its 10-Q with the SEC, and its figures are now in our data. Revenue over the twelve months to Q3 2026 was $5.4 billion, which rose 4.0% on the year before. That growth rate was down 3.0 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier.
What stands out in the filings
Net income rose 25.6% over the year while free cash flow fell 1.2%, indicating that reported profit and cash are moving at different speeds. Capital spending rose 52.6%, faster than operating cash flow’s 0.4%, so less of the cash generated was left over.
Profitability
Earnings rose while cash flow fell, telling different stories. The trailing net margin was 9.4%. Net income over the twelve months was $510.9 million, which rose 25.6% on the year before.
The cash picture
Investment is rising faster than operating cash flow, squeezing what is left for shareholders. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $1.2 billion, up 0.4% on the year before. Capital spending was $55.3 million, or 1.0% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $1.1 billion, down 1.2% on the year before. This represented a free-cash-flow margin of 20.9%, down 1.1 percentage points from a year earlier.
The share base
The average diluted share count fell 1.7% over the year.
In context
Measured against its own history, today’s free-cash-flow margin of 20.9% is higher than 65% of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from 9.3% to 24.7%. Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of 4.0% is higher than 18% of past readings (1.6% to 18.9%).
The valuation angle
Our model translates these figures into value. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 26.4%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 34.6%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 4.8%.
What comes next
The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
