Brinker International, Inc reports results on Wednesday 28 October, before the market opens. Sales are still rising, just more slowly than before. Revenue over the twelve months to Q4 2026 was $5.8 billion, which rose 7.9% on the year before.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $1.93 | $1.77 |
| Dec '25 | $2.87 | $2.63 |
| Mar '26 | $2.90 | $2.86 |
| Jun '26 | $3.07 | $3.09 |
What analysts expect
Analysts have been raising their forecasts going into the report. For the quarter, the analysts’ average EPS estimate is $2.44, in a range from $2.26 to $2.64. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $1.5 billion. Meanwhile, the analysts’ average estimate for full-year EPS is $13.27, which would be up 23.5% on last year (based on 22 analysts). That estimate has risen 6.4% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts’ recommendations, 20 are positive, 2 neutral and 1 negative.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 2.5%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 62.5%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $3.07 compared with an estimate of $3.09, below it by 0.5%.
The trends going in
The business is getting more profitable as it grows. That growth rate was down 3.9 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing operating margin was 10.7%, up 1.2 percentage points from a year earlier. Meanwhile, the trailing net margin was 8.4%. Net income over the twelve months was $487.0 million, which rose 27.1% on the year before.
Cash flow
Today’s cash margin sits near the top of the company’s own record. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $789.4 million, up 16.3% on the year before. Capital spending was $231.9 million, or 4.0% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $557.5 million, up 34.8% on the year before. Free cash flow was 9.6% of revenue (the free-cash-flow margin), up 1.9 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 2.8% over the year.
Against its own history
Set against the company’s own record: today’s free-cash-flow margin of 9.6% is above every one of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from 1.0% to 9.4%. Today’s operating margin of 10.7% is above every past reading (1.2% to 10.4%). Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of 7.9% is higher than 72% of past readings (−13.6% to 31.1%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the slowdown in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. Alongside that, whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
What it means for value
For valuation, the figures matter through our model. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 25.4%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 33.1%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 10.1%.
