Calumet, Inc. reports results on Friday 6 November, before the market opens. Growth is speeding up. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $4.6 billion, which rose 12.8% on the year before.
What analysts expect
For the quarter, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $1.80, in a range from $1.80 to $1.80. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $1.3 billion. At the same time, the analysts' average estimate for full-year EPS is −$1.65, which would be down 248.8% on last year (based on 5 analysts). Of the analysts' recommendations, 2 are positive, 4 neutral and 0 negative.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts' average estimate by 51.9%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.68 compared with an estimate of $0.16, above it by 323.7%.
The trends going in
The business is getting more profitable as it grows. That growth rate was up 12.9 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin was 6.6%. The trailing operating margin was 1.0%, up 5.5 percentage points from a year earlier. The trailing net margin was negative, at −3.0%. The company made a net loss of $136.8 million over the twelve months.
Where the cash went
On a cash basis, the picture improves. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $146.1 million, up 184.2% on the year before. Capital spending was $87.7 million, or 1.9% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $58.4 million, up 76.0% on the year before. Free cash flow was 1.3% of revenue (the free-cash-flow margin), up 4.5 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count rose 1.0% over the year.
How today compares
In the context of past results: today's operating margin of 1.0% is higher than 62% of the company's own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −4.5% to 5.7%.
Questions this report will answer
Whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above. Meanwhile, Whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
What it means for value
For valuation, the figures matter through our model. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 38.1%, and growth 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 49.3%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 32.2%.
