Carlyle Group reports on Wednesday 4 November, after the market closes. The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is $0.97, with revenue expected at $906.9 million.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $0.96 | $1.02 |
| Dec '25 | $1.01 | $0.99 |
| Mar '26 | $0.89 | $0.92 |
| Jun '26 | $1.07 | $0.91 |
What analysts expect from Carlyle Group
For the quarter, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $0.97, in a range from $0.90 to $1.07. The average revenue estimate is $906.9 million. For the full year, the average EPS estimate is $3.52, down 12.3% on last year, based on 19 analysts.
The full-year estimate has fallen 5.3% over the past 90 days. The analysts' recommendations split 10 positive, 9 neutral and 1 negative.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land below the analysts' average estimate by 0.3%. The estimated chance of an EPS beat is 50.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Carlyle Group's record against estimates
Carlyle reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 2 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $1.07 compared with an estimate of $0.91, above it by 18.0%.
The decline in sales is deepening
Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $3.6 billion, which fell 41.9% on the year before. That growth rate was down 13.0 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier, so the decline is accelerating.
Net income over the twelve months was $363.9 million, which fell 71.0% on the year before, while the trailing net margin stood at 10.1%. The average diluted share count rose 0.5% over the year.
In the company's own history, today's twelve-month revenue growth rate of −41.9% is higher than 11% of past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −53.1% to 376.6%.
Questions this report will answer
The report will answer whether the slowdown in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels above.
