Commvault Systems Inc reports results on Tuesday 27 October, before the market opens. Revenue over the twelve months to Q1 2027 was $1.2 billion, which rose 15.5% on the year before. Sales are growing faster than profit: each dollar of revenue is earning less.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $0.91 | $0.94 |
| Dec '25 | $1.17 | $0.98 |
| Mar '26 | $1.28 | $1.09 |
| Jun '26 | $1.42 | $1.16 |
What analysts expect
Analysts have been raising their forecasts going into the report. For the quarter, the average EPS estimate is $1.24, in a range from $1.19 to $1.29, while the average revenue estimate stands at $310.3 million. The full-year picture shows an average EPS estimate of $5.46, which would be up 25.5% on last year (based on 17 analysts). That estimate has risen 4.7% over the past 90 days. Of the recommendations, 11 are positive, 8 neutral and 0 negative.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 9.2%. Based on the last 4 quarters, its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 62.5%. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $1.42 compared with an estimate of $1.16, above it by 22.2%.
The trends going in
Reported cash is holding up better than reported profit. That growth rate was down 3.4 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin was 81.1%, while the trailing operating margin was 6.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from a year earlier. The trailing net margin was 5.6%. Net income over the twelve months was $68.3 million, which fell 15.8% on the year before.
The cash picture
Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $264.7 million, up 36.2% on the year before. Capital spending was $6.2 million, or 0.5% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $258.4 million, up 36.3% on the year before. The free-cash-flow margin was 21.3% of revenue, up 3.2 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 3.2% over the year.
In context
Measured against its own history: today’s free-cash-flow margin of 21.3% is higher than 77% of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from 10.1% to 24.4%. Today’s operating margin of 6.1% is higher than 54% of past readings (−5.5% to 17.2%). Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of 15.5% is higher than 69% of past readings (−5.6% to 29.2%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the slowdown in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. At the same time, whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
The valuation angle
Our model translates these figures into value. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 24.1%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 31.0%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 4.6%.
