Freeport-McMoRan reports results on Tuesday 27 October, before the market opens. Growth continues, but it is losing pace. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $25.9 billion, which rose 0.2% on the year before.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $0.50 | $0.41 |
| Dec '25 | $0.47 | $0.32 |
| Mar '26 | $0.57 | $0.47 |
| Jun '26 | $0.74 | $0.62 |
What analysts expect
Analysts have been raising their forecasts going into the report. For the quarter, the analysts’ average EPS estimate is $0.83, in a range from $0.72 to $0.94. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $7.4 billion. Alongside that, the analysts’ average estimate for full-year EPS is $3.20, which would be up 80.8% on last year (based on 22 analysts). That estimate has risen 3.4% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts’ recommendations, 18 are positive, 4 neutral and 1 negative.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 11.2%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.74 compared with an estimate of $0.62, above it by 18.7%.
The trends going in
That growth rate was down 6.1 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin was 27.1%. The trailing operating margin was 26.8%, down 0.0 percentage points from a year earlier. The trailing net margin was 11.4%. Net income over the twelve months was $2.9 billion, which rose 53.1% on the year before.
The cash picture
Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $5.9 billion, down 10.1% on the year before. Capital spending, estimated from depreciation because the company no longer reports it in a standard form, was about $2.1 billion. Meanwhile, free cash flow, operating cash flow less that estimate, was about $3.8 billion. The average diluted share count fell 0.1% over the year.
Against its own history
Set against the company’s own record: today’s free-cash-flow margin of 14.5% is higher than 77% of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −21.4% to 24.5%. Today’s operating margin of 26.8% is higher than 66% of past readings (−102.0% to 39.2%). Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of 0.2% is higher than 39% of past readings (−31.9% to 60.9%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the slowdown in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. Alongside that, Whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
What it means for value
For valuation, the figures matter through our model. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 35.4%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 46.6%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 9.7%.
