Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. reports results on Wednesday 28 October, before the market opens. Sales are growing faster than profit: each dollar of revenue is earning less. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $4.2 billion, which rose 10.0% on the year before.
What analysts expect
For the quarter, the analysts’ average EPS estimate is −$0.06, in a range from −$0.23 to $0.12. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $1.3 billion. Meanwhile, the analysts’ average estimate for full-year EPS is −$0.55, which would be up 8.7% on last year (based on 9 analysts). Of the analysts’ recommendations, 0 are positive, 9 neutral and 3 negative.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 22.2%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of −$0.10 compared with an estimate of −$0.47, above it by 78.8%.
The trends going in
Growth is speeding up. That growth rate was up 10.4 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing operating margin was negative, at −9.8%, down 8.3 percentage points from a year earlier. Alongside that, the trailing net margin was negative, at −9.3%. The company made a net loss of $386.0 million over the twelve months.
The cash picture
More cash came in than a year earlier. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was −$115.0 million. Capital spending was $49.0 million, or 1.2% of revenue. At the same time, free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was −$164.0 million. Free cash flow was −3.9% of revenue (the free-cash-flow margin), up 5.8 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count rose 0.5% over the year.
How today compares
In the context of past results: today’s free-cash-flow margin of −3.9% is higher than 73% of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −45.8% to 9.2%. Today’s operating margin of −9.8% is higher than 23% of past readings (−35.9% to 4.3%). Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of 10.0% is higher than 56% of past readings (−1.4% to 145.0%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. Alongside that, Whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
