Green Brick Partners, Inc. reports results on Wednesday 28 October, after the market closes. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $2.0 billion, which fell 5.5% on the year before, leaving today’s growth rate near the bottom of the company’s own record.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $1.77 | $1.48 |
| Dec '25 | $1.78 | $1.67 |
| Mar '26 | $1.39 | $1.19 |
| Jun '26 | $1.70 | $1.39 |
What analysts expect
Analysts have been raising their forecasts going into the report. The average EPS estimate for the quarter is $1.43, in a range from $1.36 to $1.50, while the average revenue estimate stands at $475.5 million. For full-year EPS, the analysts’ average estimate is $6.14, which would be down 13.1% on last year (based on 1 analysts). That estimate has risen 6.9% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts’ recommendations, 0 are positive, 3 neutral and 0 negative.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 9.3%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $1.70 compared with an estimate of $1.39, above it by 22.3%.
The trends going in
That growth rate was down 1.7 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin was 30.0%, while the trailing net margin was 14.7%. Net income over the twelve months was $291.3 million, which fell 16.7% on the year before.
Cash flow
Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $117.2 million, down 29.5% on the year before. Capital spending was $5.6 million, or 0.3% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $111.6 million, down 31.4% on the year before. This represented a free-cash-flow margin of 5.6%, down 2.1 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 1.8% over the year.
Against its own history
Set against the company’s own record: today’s free-cash-flow margin of 5.6% is higher than 78% of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −17.1% to 16.3%. Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of −5.5% is below every past reading (−4.4% to 56.6%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the slowdown in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. Meanwhile, whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
The valuation angle
Our model translates these figures into value. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 30.3%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 39.8%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 21.3%.
