Harley-Davidson enters this report with revenue still declining, but the rate of decline is narrowing. The analysts' average estimate for the quarter is a loss of $0.75 per share on revenue of $684.0 million. The trailing-twelve-month revenue growth rate of −5.2% improved by 4.6 percentage points from the rate a quarter earlier, and the report will test whether that improvement holds.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Dec '25 | −$2.44 | −$1.06 |
| Mar '26 | $0.22 | $0.23 |
| Jun '26 | $0.75 | $0.64 |
| Sep '26 | $0.40 | $0.47 |
What analysts expect from Harley-davidson
The quarter's EPS estimate ranges from −$1.09 to −$0.31, with the average at −$0.75. For the full year, the analysts' average estimate is $0.68 per share, which would be down 75.5% on last year based on 10 analysts. That full-year estimate has risen 6.7% over the past 90 days. The recommendations split across 6 positive, 7 neutral and 2 negative.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land below the analysts' average estimate by 4.7%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 37.5%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; with a sample of only four quarters, this is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Harley-davidson's record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 1 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.40 came in below the estimate of $0.47, missing by 15.6%.
Profit is lagging sales
Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $4.2 billion, down 5.2% on the year before. The growth rate improved by 4.6 percentage points from the rate a quarter earlier. Operating margin is 5.0%, up 0.9 percentage points from a year earlier, while net income of $202.6 million fell 16.5% on the year before.
Operating cash flow over the twelve months was −$255,000. Capital spending was $132.8 million, or 3.1% of revenue, leaving free cash flow at −$133.1 million. The free-cash-flow margin of −3.1% is down 21.5 percentage points from a year earlier.
The company sits near the bottom of its own historical range on several measures. The free-cash-flow margin is higher than only 1% of past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −15.9% to 29.8%. Operating margin is higher than only 9% of past readings, from 0.2% to 21.3%. The revenue growth rate of −5.2% is higher than 31% of past readings, from −24.8% to 31.6%.
Questions this report will answer
The report will answer three questions: whether the improvement in the revenue growth rate continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels reported here.
